Qatar's budget for fiscal 2024 head to 'significant' surplus

Qatar’s budget for the current fiscal is set to generate "significant surplus” as Qatari crude oil averaged $83.10 per barrel year to date.For 2024 budget, Qatar had lowered oil price assumption to $60/b compared to $65 per barrel in 2023.Qatari crude price (Dukhan and Marine combined) averaged $81.90 per barrel in January this year, according to Bloomberg.In February, Qatari crude averaged $80.20 per barrel, $86.89 in March, $87.90 (April), $82.90 (May), $86.46 (June), $80.44 (July) and $78.10 (so far in August).The average price (per barrel) fetched by Qatari crude (Dukhan) is as follows: $81.50 (January), $80.20 (February), $86.74 (March), $87.80 (April), $82.77 (May), $86.01 (June), $80.06 (July) and $77.82 (so far in August).The average price (per barrel) fetched by Qatari crude (Marine) is as follows: $82.30 (January), $80.20 (February), $87.04 (March), $88.00 (April), $83.02 (May), $86.91 (June), $80.81 (July) and $78.37 (so far in August).Last month, Ministry of Finance announced that Qatar's budget for the second quarter (Q2) of 2024 recorded a surplus of QR2.6bn.The Ministry of Finance also said the surplus would be directed to reducing the country’s public debt.The total budget revenues for the Q2 of 2024 amounted to QR59.9bn, of which QR41.1bn was oil and gas revenue, while non-oil revenue amounted to QR18.7bn, reflecting a decrease of 12.4% compared to the second quarter of 2023.The total expenditures during the second quarter of this year amounted to about QR57.3bn, of which QR16.5bn was earmarked for salaries and wages, and QR21.2bn for current expenditures.The Ministry of Finance noted that secondary capital expenditures amounted to QR1.3bn and major capital expenditures amounted to QR18.1bn, representing a decrease of 1.8% compared to the Q2 of 2023.Solid fiscal surpluses have been forecast for Qatar in 2024 and 2025 (around 7-8% of GDP) mainly on account of "modest projected increases” in hydrocarbon revenues, according to the National Bank of Kuwait.In its last country report, Kuwaiti bank NBK said the country’s gross public debt, consequently, is expected to continue to decline to an estimated 45% of GDP in 2025 from above 60% in 2021.Qatar's nominal GDP has been forecast at $211.7bn this year and $218.8bn in 2025.Budget balance (as a percentage of Qatar's GDP) has been forecast at 8.1% this year and 6.9% in 2025.Current account balance (as a percentage of country's GDP) has been forecast at 13% this year and 11.7% in 2025.Qatar’s non-oil growth is expected to accelerate to 2-3% in 2024 and 2025, having dipped last year in the aftermath of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022.Year-on-year inflation has been forecast at a meagre 2.5% this year and 2.2% in 2025.