Second Covid-19 wave ‘unlikely’
September 20 2020 12:09 AM
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This picture taken earlier this week shows students adjusting their masks as they get their temperature checked before entering class at a school in Karachi.

A cross-sectional study conducted from May to July at the National Institute of Blood Diseases (NIBD) in Karachi reveals that there is a slim chance of a second wave of the novel coronavirus.
The coronavirus causes the Covid-19 respiratory disease.
The study published by the Oxford University Press’s Journal of Public Health is titled Challenges in acquiring herd immunity for Covid-19.
A total of 1,675 samples were taken from three groups of the population.
The study revealed that the city is “still far from herd immunity after the results showed that overall seroprevalence in the city is 36%, still far from the 60-70 %”.
Seroprevalence is the “incidence of a disease or illness within a distinct population at one time”.
The study added that if 60% seroprevalence is acquired, in next few months, then herd immunity is not far from reality.
However, Dr Samreen Zaidi, who led the study, has said that follow-up studies show that the seroprevalence rate has reached 60%, as per expectations.
“We, on the basis of a gradual drop in cases, and other relevant factors, assume that there are low chances of a second wave of coronavirus. However, assumptions are assumptions,” Zaidi told Anadolu Agency.
Head of the NIBD Dr Tahir Shamsi has also said that there are low chances of a second wave of the pandemic.
“The data this study shows is as of July. We are in September now, and the latest statistics and testing results suggest that the seroprevalence or immunity rate is almost 60% now,” he said.



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