Japan will compile a new $1.1tn stimulus package that includes significant direct spending, to stop the coronavirus pandemic pushing the world’s third-largest economy deeper into recession, a budget draft seen by Reuters showed yesterday.
The ¥117tn stimulus, which will be funded partly by a second extra budget, will be on top of another ¥117tn package already rolled out last month.
The new package puts the total amount Japan spends to combat the virus fallout at ¥234tn ($2.18tn) – roughly 40% of Japan’s gross domestic product.
The combined spending would also be among the largest fiscal packages to deal with the coronavirus in the world, approaching the size of United States’ $2.3tn aid programme.
The government’s latest package, to be compiled yesterday, will include ¥33tn in direct spending, the draft showed.
“We must protect business and employment by any means in the face of the tough road ahead.
We must also take all necessary measures to prepare for another wave of epidemic,” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in a meeting with ruling party lawmakers yesterday.
To fund the costs, Japan will issue an additional ¥31.9tn in government bonds under the second supplementary budget for the current fiscal year ending in March 2021, according to the draft.
That will push new bond issuance for the current fiscal year to a record ¥90tn.
When including issuance to roll over debt maturing during the year, Japan’s total issuance for the year would hit a record, exceeding ¥200tn and further straining the country’s already tattered finances.
While the Bank of Japan will likely keep borrowing costs low with aggressive bond buying, the surprise increase in issuance of super-long bonds could trigger some volatility in markets, analysts say.
“The BoJ’s yield curve control should prevent a spike in long-term interest rates,” Chotaro Morita, chief bond strategist at SMBC Nikko Security, said. “Volatility in the JGB market will depend on the BoJ’s ability to control its bond purchases.”
Under a policy dubbed yield curve control (YCC), the BoJ guides short-term interest rate at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around 0%.
BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said YCC is designed to maximise the impact of fiscal spending by keeping borrowing costs low, stressing the need for the government and the central bank to work closely together to combat the virus fallout.
The new package will include steps such as an increased medical spending, aid to firms struggling to pay rent, support for students who lost part-time jobs, and more subsidies to companies hit by slumping sales.
The government will also set aside 10 tn yen in reserves that can be tapped for emergency spending, Abe added.
In the meeting with ruling party lawmakers, Abe said the government would separately provide up to 140 tn yen in financial assistance to firms hit by the pandemic.
Japan’s first ¥117tn package in April centred on cash payouts to households and steps to cope with the immediate damage from the pandemic.
