The virtual 2020 Spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group is happening this week. On account of Covid-19, the meetings are held on a virtual basis. Topics which are expected to be covered include global economic outlook, inputs from G20 and the outlook from different regions.
Even prior to the meeting, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva stated: “It is already clear, that global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020. In fact, we anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression. Just three months ago, we expected positive per capita income growth in over 160 of our member countries in 2020. Now, that number has been turned on its head; we now project that over 170 countries will experience negative per capita income growth this year.” Given the necessary containment measures to slow the spread of the virus, the world economy is taking a substantial hit. This is especially true for retail, hospitality, transport, and tourism. In most countries, the majority of workers are either self-employed or employed by small and medium-sized enterprises. These businesses and workers are especially exposed.
Emerging markets and low-income nations — across Africa, Latin America, and much of Asia — are at high risk. In the last two months, portfolio outflows from emerging markets were about $100bn — more than three times larger than for the same period of the global financial crisis.
Commodity exporters are taking a double blow from the collapse in commodity prices. And remittances — the lifeblood of so many poor people — are expected to dwindle. The encouraging news is that all governments have sprung into action and, indeed, there has been significant co-ordination. IMF’s Fiscal Monitor will show that countries around the world have taken fiscal actions amounting to about $8tn. 
In addition, there have been massive monetary measures from the G20 and others. At the G20 meeting held last week, the G20 called on the world’s leading countries to take “all the necessary measures” to stabilise an energy industry devastated by the coronavirus pandemic, giving international backing to deep oil production cuts pledged by Opec and Russia. The G20 has backed the Opec deal, which aims to remove 10m barrels a day from the market. Oil prices have positively responded early this week, in response to Opec action.
On the domestic front, Qatar has taken the lead in bond issue, becoming the first Gulf country to test investor appetite amid the combined global shock from oil and coronavirus. Last week, Qatar issued $10bn in bonds. The State of Qatar (Aa3/AA-/AA-) had thus reopened the capital markets for the region, post the recent global disruptions. Qatar priced a $10bn triple tranche offering (144A/Regulation S bonds), split across $2bn in the 5-year, $3bn in the 10-year and $5bn in the 30-year tenor sector. The new 2025, 2030 and 2050 bonds are launched at a final spread of 300 basis points (bps) and 305 bps, respectively, over the underlying five-, and 10-year US Treasury notes, and a final yield of 4.40% on the new 30-year maturity.
On the whole, Gulf sovereigns are likely to tap bond market amidst a global recession.


* The author is Group CEO of Doha Bank.