A new public broadside by North Korean officials against US-backed sanctions highlights the tough road ahead as negotiators prepare for talks in the wake of Sunday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Media reports out of Washington have suggested the Trump administration may be willing to seek a partial deal to dismantle at least part of North Korea’s nuclear programme.
But ahead of what would be the first significant talks since Trump and Kim failed to reach a deal at a summit in February in Hanoi, analysts say progress is unlikely unless Washington is prepared to ease some sanctions.
North Korea’s exports to China, its main market, dropped nearly 90% last year, according to data from Beijing, and a report this week by the Seoul-based Korea Development Institute said sanctions had put the country on a path for economic crisis.
“North Korea wants actions, not words,” said Christopher Green, a Korea expert at the International Crisis Group. “I’m not sure the US is mentally ready for it, even now.”
After Trump met with Kim at the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) between the two Koreas, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters a fresh round of negotiations with North Korean foreign ministry diplomats will likely happen “sometime in July”.
Pompeo later made clear the United States believed sanctions put in place under UN Security Council resolutions needed to remain in place as talks moved forward.
Ahead of February’s failed summit in Hanoi, American officials had raised the possibility that while sanctions would remain, they might be willing to take interim steps such as boosting humanitarian aid or opening liaison offices.
US officials, however, rejected North Korea’s offer to dismantle its reactor complex at Yongbyon in exchange for wide-ranging sanctions relief.
Since then, North Korea has only doubled down on its calls for sanctions to be withdrawn, signalling that while lesser steps might be welcome, they would not be enough to persuade Pyongyang to give up nuclear assets.
“Our state is not a country that will surrender to the US sanctions,” a North Korean foreign ministry official said in a statement last week.
A New York Times report that suggested American officials would settle for a nuclear freeze by North Korea was criticised by national security adviser John Bolton who said the idea had not been discussed at the National Security Council.
The disagreements between officials at the NSC and US State Department over whether to maintain a hard line or take a step-by-step approach are “creating a discordant policy line,” Green said.
A report this week by the North Korea Risk Group concluded there is “significant motivation for both sides to seek to reach an agreement,” and that Trump and Kim may be more compelled than ever to seek an interim deal.
“This is because a third failure — which cannot be ruled out — would prove deeply problematic for both leaders at this stage,” the report said.
But unless the US decides sanctions are on the table, even a smaller deal may be hard to seal.
If Washington sticks to its stance of no sanctions relief until North Korea gives up the proverbial keys to its nuclear kingdom, then Trump’s latest meeting with Kim “may be remembered as the last gasp of a strategy that was predictably doomed.”
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