With only a week left before the midterm polls, re-electionist Manila Mayor Joseph “Erap” Estrada and his challenger, former vice mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso are both confident in winning Manila’s top post based on the result of their respective surveys.
Former mayor Alfredo “Fred” Lim was left out of the loop without any survey result to show that he is winning the hotly contested post.
Yesterday, the Estrada camp claimed that the incumbent mayor and his running mate, former representative Amado Bagatsing, were comfortably leading their opponents, based on the latest survey conducted by the Filipino-Chinese Independent Business Coalition (FCIBC).
In its April 24 to 27 fieldwork survey using face-to-face interviews, the FCIBC survey showed Estrada garnering 51.8% voter preference, which is considered the highest among several fieldwork surveys since January 2019.
The non-commissioned survey also showed Moreno getting 34.8% voter preference, while Lim got 13%.
Bagatsing received 54.5% voter preference, while Moreno’s running mate, incumbent Vice Mayor Maria Shielah “Honey” Lacuna, had 45%. Lim has no running mate.
Marvin Manhit, FCIBC chief research analyst, said based on their study, Estrada possessed a “magnetic” political appeal to the citizens of Manila, which was considered a plus factor against the Moreno-Lacuna tandem.
“If you will notice, both Domagoso and Lacuna served as vice mayors under Estrada’s leadership. Based on our assessment, anybody who will be the running mate of Mayor Estrada will win and it looks like Amado Bagatsing, who is also a veteran politician, has the advantage over the incumbent,” Manhit said.
The FCIBC is the same private firm that released a study in 2016 confirming the slim chance of Estrada in winning the elections against Lim. In 2016, Estrada defeated Lim with a 2,000-vote margin. Early this month, the Laylo Research Strategies and Media Trend Setter surveys showed Estrada was the most preferred among mayoral bets in Manila.
Last week, an independent survey conducted by the RP-Mission and Development Foundation Inc. (RPMDinc) from April 27 to May 1 showed Moreno leading with a 50% voter preference followed by Estrada with 33% and Lim with 15%. RPMDinc also came out with a result from a survey conducted on April 1 to 8 showing Moreno with a 47% voter preference and Estrada with 30%.
In the race for councilors, a survey conducted by Ipoll Inc. showed Don Juan “DJ” Bagatsing in the winning circle in Manila’s Fourth District.
Meanwhile, new party-list group Wow Pilipinas moved to the top 10 of party-list groups that were likely to win a seat at the House of Representatives, based on the survey also conducted by RPMDinc.
The survey showed re-electionist groups led by Gabriela Women’s Party dominating the race. The non-commissioned survey with 8,000 respondents, conducted from April 22 to 27, showed 4.5% of voters preferred the group over 134 rivals. Wow Pilipinas ratings’ translates to about 218,396 votes in the National Capital Region alone.
Gabriela, which topped the previous surveys for party-list groups, was still at No 1 spot with 10.8%. Buhay Hayaang Yumabong was second with 9.3%, followed by Ako Bicol Political Party — which was No 1 in 2016 — with 6.1%, followed by Anakpawis (5.5%), Akbayan Citizens Action Party (5.1%), Coalition of Associations of Senior Citizens in the Philippines (4.7%), Bayan Muna (4.2%), Serbisyo sa Bayan Partylist (3.4%) and ACT Teachers (3.2%).