New Brexit referendum most likely, feels Blair

Former prime minister Tony Blair said a second Brexit referendum is now the most likely outcome because plans to leave the European Union face deadlock in parliament.
Less than four months before Britain is due to leave the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May called off a parliamentary vote on her deal with Brussels this week after admitting it would be heavily defeated.
“Our present situation is unique in modern British politics,” Blair said in a speech in London. “The government is not in control — not of the agenda, not of the events and not of the outcome.
“What seemed a few months ago unlikely is now above the 50% likelihood,” he added. “We will go back to the people.”
Addressing EU leaders in Brussels, Blair said they should offer to reform to make it more attractive for Britain to remain, including making changes to immigration rules, a key driver behind the vote to leave the bloc.
An offer by the EU to change would show “that the political leadership of Europe and Britain had listened to the underlying concerns of those who voted (for) Brexit, not disrespecting the concerns but meeting them in a way which is not damaging”.
Blair has repeatedly called for reversing Brexit since the 2016 referendum, echoing other critics including French President Emmanuel Macron, who have suggested Britain could still change its mind.
The former prime minister, who won three general elections for Labour, remains a deeply divisive figure in Britain for joining the US in the Iraq conflict in 2003 after the invasion was found to be based on flawed intelligence.
Blair said in most other situations, such as the time between engagement and marriage or accepting a job offer and taking it up, people can change their mind.
“If our knowledge of reality in any of these situations changed, in any of these situations would we really abhor the prospect of reconsideration?”
“Given all that has happened, the undemocratic thing is to deny people a final say.”
Meanwhile, May’s failure to win legally binding assurances from the EU on her deal to quit the bloc was cast as a humiliation by opponents yesterday after she exasperated other leaders with a stilted defence of Brexit.
May, who on Wednesday survived a plot in her party to oust her, asked EU leaders on Thursday at a summit in Brussels for political and legal assurances to help her convince the British parliament to approve her deal.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron ruled out reopening last month’s agreement, aimed at ensuring a smooth exit on March 29, though leaders assured her that it should not bind Britain forever to EU rules.
But diplomats said May had exasperated EU leaders at a meeting on Thursday by failing to outline precise proposals for what she needed to push the deal through, and even at one point used her much-derided mantra of “Brexit means Brexit”.
“If this is all she has for us, there is no point trying too hard now,” one diplomat told Reuters. “She still needs to do her homework — maybe she’ll come back in January with something concrete and then we will see.”