As many had expected, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell, one of the best players in the NFL, did not turn up at team headquarters on Tuesday. The move means he’s not eligible to play for the remainder of the season and has forfeited the $14.54mn he was due to make.
What exactly happened on Tuesday?
Technically nothing, which is the problem. Bell, one of the NFL’s best running backs, who has also doubled as one of Pittsburgh’s top receivers, had been threatening to sit out the entire season as he sought a better deal. As it turns out, that wasn’t just idle chatter. Tuesday’s deadline was the latest he could show up and still play this season. With the no-show, Bell is now not considered part of the team and is not technically under contract, so the Steelers cannot even trade him.
Why would Bell do this?
It has to do with money, the risk of being injured and the financial insecurities surrounding the running back position. Bell, who is 26 and in his prime years, is concerned about being injured, or prematurely entering the decline phase of his career after being overworked, before having a chance to freely negotiate for a salary worthy of his talent. Bell, who led the league in touches per game last season, turned down the Steelers offer of a five-year/$70mn contract in July because he felt that the $17mn the team offered in guaranteed money wasn’t enough considering the long-term risks.
Bell felt his health was the key issue. He told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler last month, “It sucks having to sit out football. I want to play. I want to win games and the playoffs. But I’ve gotta take this stand. Knowing my worth and knowing I can tear a ligament or get surgery at any time, I knew I couldn’t play 16 games with 400 or more touches.”
If he’s worried about career-altering injuries, it’s hard to blame him considering what we’ve seen so far in the league. One of the lasting images of this season might be safety Earl Thomas, whose own holdout lasted until just days before the start of the regular season, flipping off the Seattle Seahawks bench after his possibly career-ending injury back in Week 4. When Thomas went down, Bell commented “Get right bro bro. I’ll continue to be the ‘bad guy’ for ALL of us.”
Teams tend to see running backs as replaceable cogs, mainly because of their tendency to decline at a relatively young age. Because of that, teams avoid handing them long-term contracts whenever possible. The Steelers, knowing this, placed the franchise tag (a one-year designation a team can place on a potential free agent each year) on Bell in each of the previous two seasons. While teams can still negotiate for an extension with a tagged player up to a certain point, the player does not have the ability to decline the tag itself. Under this situation, a player doesn’t have very much leverage beyond holding out. Bell just took things to an extreme.
Is this unprecedented?
Not entirely. Washington tackle Sean Gilbert held out for an entire season in 1997. Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Dan Williams did so in 1998. This, though, is the most high-profile case.
Are the Steelers in trouble?
Not particularly. James Conner, just 23 years old and making $578,000 this year on his rookie contract, has been productive in place of Bell. The Steelers are on a five-game winning streak and are currently on top of the AFC North. If Bell wanted to show the Steelers they will suffer without him, that part of the plan might have already backfired.
Are Bell fantasy football owners in trouble?
Absolutely.
Where does Bell go from here?
Another team. After all this, the Steelers aren’t going to franchise him for a third time, particularly since it would cost them more than $20mn. Considering Conner’s breakthrough season and the headaches they’ve gone through this year, it’s difficult to imagine him returning to Pittsburgh under any circumstances.
Would another team sign him to a lucrative contract even after all this?
Probably. In his first five seasons, Bell averaged 128.9 yards after scrimmage per game, a record for any back since the 1970s NFL-AFL merger. Plus, hey, he just skipped out on a year’s worth of wear and tear. Presuming he hits free agency, he should receive a large contract from somebody, even if some teams may be hesitant to sign him thanks to the negative attention he’s received during the holdout. A comparable contract might be the four-year, $57.5mn ($45mn guaranteed) contract the Los Angeles Rams have given running back Todd Gurley.
What’s the ultimate takeaway from this?
It depends on the fallout. It’s entirely possible that it ends up working out for the best for both sides: Bell could pick up a contract that more than justifies the money he left on the table this year and the Steelers could end up better in the long run by getting significant production from the younger, less expensive Conner.
For the league in general, however, Bell’s season-long holdout could be a sign of things to come. Players are more aware than ever of the potential of injuries impacting and even ending their careers. They are also more aware of how teams structure contracts to avoid paying players guaranteed money and how the entire system is tilted toward the side of the owners. Look for the players to increasingly use whatever leverage they have, even if that means having to sit out an entire season. Even if no player takes things quite as far as Bell did, teams now have to be concerned about the possibility of a player doing something similar in the future, and that alone could be a difference maker.