A course stretching to 7,547 yards, wide fairways and soft greens will give the big bombers the advantage they did not always enjoy at last month’s Open Championship on the parched fairways at Carnoustie.
Johnson, fellow Americans Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka, Englishmen Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood, and Northern Irishman Rory McIlroy loom as the main contenders.
Less likely to triumph, but sure to attract plenty of attention all the same, are Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth, who can achieve the ‘Career Grand Slam’.
Woods did not play well in Akron last week and Bellerive is not really up his alley. A decade removed from his 14th, and most recent, major victory, he is better suited these days to courses that demand subtlety and shot-making.
Spieth also played poorly in Akron, and he too does not appear to be a good match for Bellerive. Johnson is not number one in the world by accident, but he is not quite the closer in majors that he is in regular tournaments. Another near-miss at the US Open in June, where he finished third after a pedestrian final round, resurrected nagging doubts about his ability to seal the deal.
The 2016 US Open remains his only major victory. He has been in contention often enough to have plenty of silverware.
McIlroy, meanwhile, has heaps of great golf left in
him but needs to win a major on a firm and difficult track to shed the tag of being a flat track
bully, to use cricketing parlance for a batsman who runs up big scores when conditions are favourable.
McIlroy’s four major titles have all come on rain-softened courses where he could bomb away his driver and attack with his irons. He should be at home this week. Apart from the usual suspects, another player worth keeping close tabs on is American Tony Finau, who has finished in the top 10 in all three majors this year. A prodigiously long hitter, statistically the third longest driver on the PGA Tour this year, he reduces pretty much every par-five to a par-four. If he finds the fairways at Bellerive, watch out.
PERFECT LIES
Bellerive’s Zoysia grass fairways invariably offer perfect lies.
A modest but not particularly deep rough will sometimes penalise errant drives, while the greens, which need to be watered this time of year to keep them alive, should allow players to fire fearlessly at the pins.
Englishman Ross Fisher says the greens are “unusually slow for a major, very soft” but all in all he likes what he sees.
“The fairways are 40-50 yards wide so if you miss the fairway you know you’re driving it poorly this week,” the world number 46 told Reuters after playing the front nine on Monday.
Five-times major winner Phil Mickelson predicts a low winning score. “The greens you can make a lot of putts, the fairways are pristine, the ball just sits up beautifully and around the greens you can spin your chip shots, and get them close, so I feel like you can attack the golf course,” he said on Sunday.
British Open winner Francesco Molinari has fought off insecurities with hard work and statistical analysis and the results have been three wins in as many months and his first major title. The 35-year-old Italian approaches the championship after winning the European Tour’s BMW PGA Championship in May, the US PGA Quicken Loans National in June and a major breakthrough last month at Carnoustie.
Five key holes
Par-3 Sixth (213 yards)
Smallest green on the course guarded by a pond on the right plus bunkers left and behind. Tough green to hit and tricky to get up and down. Played to 4.02-stroke average in 1965 US Open. A round-ruiner waiting to happen. As club pro Mike Tucker says, “If our fans want to see good challenges and potential train wrecks, that would be the hole.”
Par-4 Ninth (433 yards)
An uphill approach to a slight dogleg left with bunkers in the landing area and the most complex green on the course. Finishing hole high on approaches will be a major feat. A front-area cup could bring birdie chances but with bunkers right, left and rear, it’s as tough a par hole as Bellerive offers.
Par-4 Tenth (508 yards)
This dogleg left forces a strong tee shot to reach the corner and provide a look at a wide but shallow green. There are bunkers to the front, right and rear of the green and a creek in front of it all that will add some issues for those who find the rough. This members par-5 hole will be a rough one for back-nine starters to begin rounds the first two days.
Par-4 15th (495 yards)
In the middle of a three-hole stretch known as “The Ridge,” players are going against the prevailing breeze with a mid- to long-iron into a wide but shallow green. Hefty right to left slope with front bunkers flanking the putting area. Short-game magicians can create some excitement here.
Par-5 17th (597 yards)
The only par-5 on the back nine comes late and should provide drama for players needing a last chance to gain some ground in Sunday’s last round. It can be shifted above 600 yards or to a potentially reachable-in-two offering an eagle putt depending on set-ups. A 2005-06 renovation removed a pond in front of the green. There are bunkers guarding it now but enough room to run a shot onto the green if navigated correctly. A creek down the right side could come into play if the desperate become inaccurate. Potential decider.
Past 10 winners
2017: Justin Thomas (USA)
2016: Jimmy Walker (USA)
2015: Jason Day (AUS)
2014: Rory McIlroy (NIR)
2013: Jason Dufner (USA)
2012: Rory McIlroy (NIR)
2011: Keegan Bradley (USA)
2010: Martin Kaymer (GER)
2009: Yang Yong-eun (KOR)
2008: Padraig Harrington (IRL)