With leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and firebrand right-wing former army officer Jair Bolsonaro leading the polls, there’s a gaping hole in Brazil’s centre ahead of presidential elections next year.
Yesterday, one of the country’s most established centrist forces, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party, or PSDB, will take a first step in trying to become the missing piece of that puzzle.
The PSDB convention will choose Sao Paulo state Governor Geraldo Alckmin as its leader, effectively launching him as the party’s candidate for the October 2018 polls.
He’ll have a lot of catching up to do. Despite having been convicted of corruption and facing a potential jail term, Lula is far ahead with 36% of the latest opinion poll.
Bolsonaro, a congressional deputy with a love of provocative anti-gay, pro-dictatorship outbursts, is firmly in second place with 18%.
Faced by that hostile voter landscape, the PSDB’s other big step expected soon is to quit the coalition government headed by the centre-right PMDB and scandal-ridden President Michel Temer.
Temer, who took over after the impeachment of leftist president Dilma Rousseff in 2016, is mired in corruption charges and widely disliked for his attempt to push through austerity reforms.
With single-digit ratings, he is the most unpopular president on record.
But will breaking from the government and naming Alckmin persuade voters that the PSDB can bring a fresh start?
Betinho Gomes, a PSDB legislator, thinks so. “The need for a centrist candidate who contrasts with the extreme left and right will promote alliances between several parties and Alckmin will be a key player,” he said. “This scenario is made for a PSDB victory.”
But while Alckmin, 65, has the party machine behind him, he may be seen as more of the same at a time when Brazilians are thirsting for something different.
So far he is polling only at a modest seven per cent. Crucially, Alckmin is alleged to have taken dirty money in the sprawling “Car Wash” scandal that has uncovered systemic embezzlement and bribery between politicians and some of Brazil’s biggest companies.
This is not a good time to be a graft-tainted politician in Brazil.
“He has a chance, but not much of one. No PSDB candidate is doing well in the polls and their party was hit hard by the corruption scandals,” said Fernando Lattman-Weltman, an analyst at the Instituto de Ciencias Sociales.
The PSDB was the big winner in municipal elections held in 2016, but building on that in the presidential and congressional elections of 2018 will depend on the tepid economic recovery currently underway strengthening.
If that happens, the centrists will be able to argue that Brazil doesn’t need any radical shift left or right.
But if the recovery peters out, voter anger may leave the PSDB out in the cold.
“If the economic recovery fails, then the whole political movement (that replaced leftist Rousseff) will fail,” Betinho said.
Brazilian President Michel Temer said on Friday that the pension reform bill that is “indispensable” to reduce the nation’s budget deficit must be voted on this year in the lower house of Congress before the 2018 election year.
Speaking at a chemical industry event, Temer appealed to businessmen to lobby Congress for approval of the unpopular pension overhaul that is seen by investors as crucial to restoring Brazil’s fiscal health.
Rodrigo Maia, the speaker of the lower house, said this week he would not put the bill to the vote until the government had secured the 308 votes the measure will need for passage.
To allow more time for negotiations with reluctant lawmakers, Temer agreed with congressional leaders on Thursday to delay the lower house vote on the bill until the week of December 18, the last before the Christmas recess.
Once it clears the lower chamber, Temer expects the legislation to be voted on in the Senate in February.
“Reform of the pension system is indispensable.It will allow Brazil to move forward,” Temer said.”But this must be the work of all of us.
We need to show that we support this bill.”
Temer acknowledged that lawmakers facing re-election next October had legitimate concerns about supporting the bill.
The reform proposal seeks to increase the age at which Brazilians can retire and collect social security.
It would also make pension payouts in Brazil, among the most generous in the world, more modest.
If a vote is further delayed until next year, its chances of approval will be limited as lawmakers become more sensitive to the demands of voters when the election campaign gets underway.