The International Monetary Fund yesterday raised its economic growth forecast for China for this year and next but warned of serious longer-term problems unless it reduces its reliance on credit.
The IMF’s forecast for 2017 was 6.6%, compared to a 6.5% estimate in January, and 6.2% next year compared to 6%.
“The upward revision...reflects the stronger-than-expected momentum in 2016 and the anticipation of continued policy support,” the fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook.
“The medium-term outlook, however, continues to be clouded by increasing resource misallocation and growing vulnerabilities associated with the reliance on near-term policy easing and credit-financed investment.”
China faces a “daunting challenge of reducing its reliance on credit growth” and the consequences of failing to do so are serious, it added.
“A dilution of financial regulation may lead to stronger near-term growth but may imperil global financial stability and raise the risk of costly financial crises down the road,” the fund said.
The warning came a day after China announced its economy grew an annualised 6.9% in the first quarter of 2017, beating expectations.
Analysts say cheap credit has bolstered the construction sector since last year, attracting savers and speculators who have pushed up housing prices in big cities and accelerated manufacturing activity.
Beijing has said it wants to reorient the economy away from relying on exports and debt-fuelled investment towards a consumer-driven growth model, but the transition has proved challenging and led to slower expansion in recent years.
The economy grew 6.7% in 2016, its slowest rate since 1990.
“Fundamentally, China has to restrain credit growth.
Household debt is now a major slice of the total debt pie and households are much less able to service these debt loads for a number of reasons,” said Christopher Balding, professor of economics at Peking University.
“This will increasingly make it more difficult to transition to a consumer economy if households are already that indebted.”
China’s total debt hit 168.48tn yuan ($25tn) at the end of 2015, equivalent to almost 250% of national GDP, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said in its most recent estimate.
Beijing should “focus on containing the problems at their source by accepting slower and more sustainable growth outcomes... and cutting off-budget public sector investment while increasing on-budget allocations for social assistance, health expenditure, unemployment benefits and restructuring funds,” the IMF report said.
LEAVE A COMMENT Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked*
Saudi-Russia oil price war: Will it script the end of Opec?
Operational readiness is key to business continuity, says business council official
Turkey widens emergency response with bond buying
QSE settles above 8,200 levels despite bearish sentiments
Asian bourses enjoy gains after Wall Street rally, but nerves remain
Options markets bet Indonesian rupiah will fall to a record
Indonesia rolls out $25bn more spending
China’s factory activity unexpectedly expands
Singapore banks set to freeze mortgage, SME loan payments