Jakarta’s Christian governor was heading for a tough run-off against a Muslim opponent in city elections seen as a test of religious tolerance in Indonesia after a tight first round yesterday.
Basuki Tjahaja Purnama held a narrow lead, according to private pollsters, despite being on trial for blasphemy, but is seen as unlikely to win in April’s second round against ex-education minister Anies Baswedan, who came a close second and will attract more Muslim votes.
Third candidate Agus Yudhoyono, another Muslim challenger and the son of a former president, trailed far behind. Baswedan said “Thanks be to God!” on hearing he looked on course to become governor of the megacity of 10mn — but Purnama, who has won support with his determination to clean up Jakarta, signalled he was ready for a fight.
 “This is not over yet,” he told cheering supporters at his campaign headquarters in Jakarta. “Some pollsters said we were the candidates no one would vote for,” he said, referring to himself and his running mate. “We ended up in the lead.”
 Over 100 polls to elect local leaders were taking place across Indonesia but the race in the capital was the most hotly contested, with the top job in Jakarta seen as a stepping stone to victory in the 2019 presidential polls. The stakes in the vote have been raised by allegations that Purnama — the city’s first non-Muslim governor for half a century and its first ethnic Chinese leader — insulted the Holy Qur’an.
 The claims drew hundreds of thousands of conservative Muslims onto the streets of Jakarta in major protests last year, and Purnama has been put on trial in a case criticised as unfair and politically motivated.  Purnama, known by his nickname Ahok, was not barred from running but his popularity was dented for a period. 
Once the favourite to win the gubernatorial election, Purnama was on about 43% to Baswedan’s 39 in yesterday’s first round, meaning no candidate had passed the threshold needed to avoid a run-off, according to early vote tallies by private pollsters.
 The official results are not expected for a few weeks but the early tallies, called “quick counts”, are generally thought reliable.  Despite his upbeat remarks, analysts warn Purnama is unlikely to win a second round against a candidate who has appealed to voters disillusioned by the governor’s alleged blasphemy and controversially courted a group that organised the protests against him.
 “At this stage, it will be a miracle if Ahok wins,” said Tobias Basuki, a political analyst from Jakarta think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, adding it was unlikely the first round votes for Yudhoyono would go to Purnama.  Observers also warn that any run-off between Purnama and Baswedan could stoke tensions further after months of campaigning. “The tense situation will continue until April — this kind of thing is dangerous,” said Burhanuddin Muhtadi of pollster Indikator.
In the event that Purnama wins and is convicted of blasphemy, which could see him sentenced to up to five years in prison, he would not automatically be barred from holding office and could avoid jail for a long time by filing successive appeals.