The Swiss are a gloomy bunch, despite glorious Alpine vistas, some of the world’s best chocolate and an economy that makes them among the richest in the world.
Data yesterday showed confidence among Swiss consumers was deep in negative territory for the ninth straight quarter.
It was not a surprise — more often than not, that’s where they are.
Over the 40 quarters of the past 10 years, only 12 have been positive, and some of those were barely a blip.
“Security and continuity are important for Swiss consumers,” said Martin Groeli, leader of retail and consumer products at consultancy EY. “They’re rather cautious.”
Thursday’s third-quarter consumer confidence reading was minus 15, below the long-term average of minus 9 for the fifth consecutive quarter.
It means residents on balance assessed the Swiss economy more negatively than positively, based on a telephone survey of around 1,200 households.
The gloom is relative.
“Although views of the general economic situation remain fairly pessimistic, the situation is continuing to brighten slightly,” the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) said of a three-point increase to -27 in assessments of current conditions.
But expectations for the economic outlook have dampened.
The Swiss economy faced major uncertainty after the Swiss National Bank abandoned an exchange rate cap against the euro in January 2015, causing the Swiss franc to soar and hitting exports to the country’s main trading partner.
The economy showed unexpected resilience during a “dark year” and has seen breathing room from a slightly weaker franc in 2016. Swiss consumers, of course, are not alone in their worries, forged by sluggish global growth, political unrest, and low interest rates that have placed pension savings and an already rocky financial sector on thinning ice.
Switzerland has joined neighbours bracing for the unknown impact of Britons’ vote to quit the European Union.
British consumer morale suffered its sharpest drop in more than 26 years, hitting a reading of -12 as economists projected a slide back into recession.
German confidence also slipped to 10 points.
But Swiss households have nonetheless have managed to be some of the world’s financially fittest and more pessimistic even than peers at the epicentre of turmoil.
In 2015 the World Bank ranked Swiss people second in the world by per capita gross domestic product and third by per capita gross national income, valued at just over $84,000.
In Credit Suisse’s 2015 Global Wealth Report, Switzerland held on to its first-place rank and remained the only country whose average adult net worth exceeded $500,000.
While it was also one of the countries with the highest wealth inequality, median wealth stood at $107,600, making the typical Swiss the sixth best off in the world. Switzerland also ranked second in the 2016 World Happiness Report, a kind of livability index.
Unemployment stood at just 3.3% in June.
Still, the Swiss have expected brighter prospects in just 56 out of a total 176 quarters, or a cumulative 14 out of 44 years.
So why are consumers so downbeat when by all measures little Switzerland is one of the richest in the world?
SECO’s Ronald Indergand pointed to recent upticks in unemployment as one cause for the mood.”
Comparisons across countries and the long run are somewhat dodgy,” he added.
The data points to a Swiss tendency towards financial moroseness.
Since 1990, average consumer confidence has stood at -9 points, up slightly from -9.3 in the first survey conducted in October 1972.
Meanwhile, per capita GDP rose 48% since 1990 to a provisional 78,432 francs ($80,526) in 2014.
That is over a period in which consumer prices rose just 31%, suggesting a hike in individual purchasing power.
But households did not foresee more savings in 2016 and found it a somewhat less auspicious time to make big purchases.
At least there was one sweet spot in the mood.
Zuercher Kantonalbank said the results came in better than expected.
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