Now that we are some weeks into the post-Brexit environment, it’s quite useful to take a look back and reflect on the tremendous surprise that everybody received when the vote came in on June 24. 
I suspect that the “Establishment” which is very London-centric ie. politicians, business leaders, bankers etc, were all very much in the ‘Remain’ camp; consequently I believe that the prime minister was misguided in terms of where he placed his bets!  He has certainly paid the price for that and we had tremendous drama for a couple of week until Theresa May was appointed.  I would have to say I think it’s an excellent choice, a very balanced individual and an excellent track record in the Home Office for six years.
A good cabinet has also been appointed. It was interesting noting that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove were not at all considered for the leadership, which goes to prove that you may pick individuals to run a campaign but not for the long haul!
We’ve seen the markets move pretty dramatically following the vote, but now as far as the stock markets are concerned, we are generally well ahead of where we were in the months leading up to Brexit and even the Footsie 250 is within a few points of its pre-Brexit level.
Sterling has rebased to its trade weighted level not seen actually since 2013. This is obviously a very positive thing for British exports as it could be argued that sterling strength in 14 and 15 sucked in significant volumes of discretionary imports which inflated the balance of payments.
In the near term, I chair two businesses, one is in Managed Services and the other is a Manufacturer. Up until the time of writing, they are meeting their planned budget financial goals — so no impact at all.
Generally it would appear that investor interests and intentions continue to be reasonably positive with major property investment in office space in London by Wells Fargo Bank and substantial investments by GSK and others in expanding existing UK based manufacturing and research facilities.
There is certainly a long way to go with many complex negotiations. However, in the end, I think the fact that the EU exports 12% more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, will weigh heavily in the balance with the incentive to make effective and fair deals resting very much on the shoulders of the EU countries. Let’s see!


* Glasgow-based John R Wright is an academic, veteran banker and a former CEO of Oman International Bank and Gulf Bank, Kuwait.