The European Union (EU) woke up yesterday to a political earthquake, with Britain’s decision to leave the bloc heralding years of uncertainty, not only for the country but for the fate of the entire European project.
Britain’s departure - a process expected to take at least two years to unpick 43 years of marriage - will leave the remaining 27-member EU stripped of its second-largest economy, one of its two nuclear powers and one of its two UN Security Council veto-holders.
But what many governments fear more is the impact of Brexit on the fabric of the bloc, as eurosceptics across the continent celebrated yesterday’s referendum outcome.
EU President Donald Tusk, however, expressed the group’s determination to keep its unity as 27. And European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, asked by a journalist whether Britain’s decision was the beginning of the end for the EU, responded with a firm “no”. The message is clear: The EU must go on, with or without Britain.
The referendum has come at a time when the EU is facing a series of crises, from last year’s migration surge to tensions with Russia and persistent economic challenges, while many are rejecting the medicine prescribed by Brussels to stimulate growth and job creation.
But some have argued that the departure of Britain - a country that had applied the brakes on further European integration - will be a chance for the bloc to grow together and embark on ambitious reforms, for instance on efforts to achieve closer economic alignment.
The economic fallout of the poll on Britain was felt first in the form of the plunging pound, which is likely to lead to inflation, higher interest rates and higher mortgage debt.
The political fallout could be even wider.
A map of the preferences of Britain’s 382 voting areas in the referendum gives a graphic picture of the divided nation. Scotland and western Northern Ireland are completely covered by Remain votes, as is most of London, but Leave dominates the rest of the country. Scottish and Irish nationalists are already warning that they are likely to push for votes on independence from Britain.
On the Leave side, UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage and Vote Leave campaign leader Boris Johnson and others on the right have implicitly, and sometimes explicitly, linked EU migration to the growing number of Muslims in the country. Johnson and Farage are likely to play major roles in British politics in the near term.
Many of the tensions leading up to the vote were highlighted by the murder of Jo Cox, a pro-immigration, pro-Remain Labour lawmaker, who was murdered at a constituency event one week before the vote.
Despite the ultimate win for Leave, Brendan Cox, the murdered lawmaker’s husband, sounded a positive note yesterday. “Today Jo would have remained optimistic and focused on what she could do to bring our country back together around our best values,” he said on Twitter.
