Israel’s economy ended 2015 year on a strong note thanks to robust consumer spending, but weak exports could keep growth in a lower gear this year.
The economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter for its strongest period of 2015, the Central Bureau of Statistics said yesterday in its third estimate.
The bureau had previously estimated gross domestic product growth in the October-December period at an annualised 3.9%, up from a preliminary 3.3%.
It also revised third-quarter GDP growth to an annualised 2.3% from 2.4%.
In all of 2015, Israel’s economy grew 2.5%. It is forecast to grow about 2.8% this year.
“The economy’s growth is standing on one leg - consumer spending,” said Alex Zabezhinsky, chief economist at brokerage Meitav Dash, noting government spending is contributing as well with nearly 15% growth in the fourth quarter.
He said that while data have shown a decline so far in 2016, consumer spending remained solid due to a strong labour market in which the jobless rate is 5.3%.
Private consumption grew 7.9% in the fourth quarter - revised higher from a prior estimate - and 4.9% in 2015. Exports – 35%-40% of economic activity - grew just 3.3%, less than half its prior estimate of 7.2%.
Zabezhinsky said exports, which fell 3.3% in 2015, will have a hard time recovering this year with a dual problem of continued weak global growth and an appreciating shekel that is hovering at a nine-month high versus the dollar.
He said data point to a 15% fall so far in exports in the first quarter.
Similarly, investment in fixed assets gained 10.9% in the last three months of 2015 although analysts say it is more in cars than manufacturing equipment.
Consequently, analysts give a larger chance of the economy falling short of its forecast, as in 2015, than exceeding it.
But little is expected from the central bank, other than occasional dollar purchases in the market to keep the shekel from appreciating rapidly. The Bank of Israel has left its benchmark interest rate at 0.1% for over a year and is widely forecast to stay on hold for another year, barring a sudden shift in the economic environment.
The next rates decision is on Thursday. Policymakers have made it clear they prefer not to reduce the rate to zero or below.
“The Bank of Israel is out of ammunition,” Zabezhinsky said.
Shoppers stand on escalators inside a shopping mall in Jerusalem (file). The economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter for its strongest period of 2015, the Central Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.
