By Julie Makinen/Los Angeles Times/TNS


North Korea’s claim that it had successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb yesterday elicited an angry if familiar chorus of condemnation from countries including the US, South Korea, Japan, China and various arms-control organisations.
But Washington and the international community may yet again find it hard to muster the will to take bold steps to lure North Korea back to the bargaining table any time soon.
The UN Security Council, at a meeting later yesterday, did agree to prepare further unspecified measures against North Korea after it carried out the test. The 15-member council including China, Pyongyang’s ally, “strongly condemned” the test and described it as a “clear threat to international peace and security”.
If confirmed, the “miniature” H-bomb detonation would be the reclusive Communist state’s fourth nuclear test since 2006 but the first using fusion technology. North Korea’s nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013 are all believed to have used plutonium-based, or perhaps uranium-based, atomic weapons.
Hydrogen bombs, also called thermonuclear bombs, can potentially be much larger than atomic weapons, which rely on fission for their explosive power. However, initial data about yesterday’s blast in North Korea indicated it was not substantially larger than the country’s 2013 test, says Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association.
“If indeed it was a nuclear test, whether H-bomb or A-bomb, we can expect another round of largely symbolic sanctions against North Korea, plus public condemnation from China,” says Denny Roy, an expert on Northeast Asia political and security issues at the East-West Center in Honolulu.
“I don’t expect that this will fundamentally change South Korean, Chinese or US policy toward North Korea,” he says. “This will worsen Pyongyang’s relations with China, but the North Koreans have weathered that situation before and know the Chinese fear losing all influence over the (North). Beijing concluded long ago that the only thing worse than putting up with North Korea’s bad behaviour is the danger of a collapse of the Kim regime.”
The Obama administration was “monitoring and continuing to assess the situation in close co-ordination with our regional partners”, John Kirby, a spokesman for the US State Department, said late yesterday. “We have consistently made clear that we will not accept (North Korea) as a nuclear state,” he added. “We will continue to protect and defend our allies in the region.”
China said it had no advance warning of the test. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Beijing remained resolutely opposed to such tests and urged Pyongyang to take steps to prevent further deterioration of the situation. She also called for a resumption of the so-called six-party talks aimed at getting Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear programme.
Those talks – involving the US, North Korea, China, Japan, South Korea and Russia – broke down in 2009 after six years, not long after President Barack Obama took office.
Whether Obama has the desire – or the bandwidth – to make a bold move to get Pyongyang back to the negotiating table before his term runs out in about one year remains unclear.
Washington and Seoul have insisted that Pyongyang show sincerity by taking concrete steps toward denuclearisation before resuming dialogue. But China, Russia and North Korea have called for an unconditional return to talks.
“Obama put in a tremendous effort to secure the Iran nuclear deal which has been a successful and historic breakthrough. It shows that when the US conducts deft, effective diplomacy to deal with a proliferation threat it can work,” said Kimball of the Arms Control Association.
“He has not taken the same political and diplomatic risk with North Korea during the course of his presidency. But I think it’s vital that in the final few months he lays the groundwork for a more effective strategy that is focused on making sure there is no further harm done by additional nuclear test explosions or long-range ballistic missile tests.”
At a joint news conference with South Korean President Park Geun-hye in Washington in October, Obama said he saw no sign that Pyongyang was serious about negotiating.
“At the point where Pyongyang says we are interested in seeing relief from sanctions and improved relations and we are prepared to have a serious conversation about denuclearisation, I think it’s fair to say that we’ll be right there at the table,” he said.
“We haven’t even gotten to that point yet, because there has been no indication on the part of the North Koreans as there was with the Iranians that they could foresee a future in which they did not possess or were not pursuing nuclear weapons.”
In addition to testing Obama, Pyongyang’s actions are a fresh challenge for the Chinese leadership, which is increasingly trying to assert itself as an effective major player in global affairs.
The nuclear blast is the first the North has conducted since Xi Jinping officially took office as China’s president in March 2013. Although China is considered North Korea’s only remaining major ally, and Xi is the most-travelled Chinese president in history, Xi has not visited North Korea nor has he hosted a visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.”
Shi Yuanhua, deputy director of the Centre for Korean Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said China remained resolutely opposed to the North’s nuclear activities but that it was up to Washington to shift its stance to get Pyongyang back to the bargaining table.
“Compared to the US, China is still an outsider in this matter,” he said. “Technically, the US and North Korea are still at war. They need a peace treaty and then to normalise diplomatic relations.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last year had urged all parties to get back to the bargaining table, Shi noted, but Washington responded “coolly”. Yesterday’s test, Shi said, was a sign that North Korea wanted to talk.
But at least immediately, foreign governments signalled that they were more focused on rapping North Korea on the knuckles again.
Park, chairing an emergency meeting of South Korea’s national security council, called the purported test “a grave provocation to our national security but also a threat to our future ... and a strong challenge to international peace and stability.” South Korea also said it would “take all necessary measures ... so that the North will pay the price for the nuclear test”.
In Japan, Nihon Television reported that officials close to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe were already discussing strengthening economic sanctions against North Korea. Abe also told reporters that Japan considered the tests a serious threat and would join forces with the US and China to take “firm countermeasures,” according to Japan’s public broadcaster NHK.
Russia also condemned Pyongyang’s announced test as a “violation of international law”. But Leonid Petrov, an expert on North Korea at the Australian National University, said any push for resumption of six-party talks could be undercut by continuing tensions between Washington and Moscow.