Delhi Diary/By A K B Krishnan
Every time an election is held in India, be it for the national parliament, the assemblies of various states or even a local municipality, the general refrain is: “Democracy has triumphed.” It has become such a cliché that more and more people have started disbelieving it. They witness the utterly parochial and polarising election campaigns and either stay put at home or go on short holiday-breaks just to avoid voting. Hence it is that for several years, even decades, the voting percentage had hovered around 60 or even less, of course with a few exceptions like Kerala, Goa or some states in the northeast.
But the latest assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir not only set a new record for the state in terms of voter turnout – 65% - but also can easily be described as a “triumph of democracy” in more ways than one. No, it did not throw up any party with a clear majority, but given the unique, and simultaneously disparate, characteristics of the state this was perhaps the best result that could have been achieved.
The three separate regions of the state are as different in terms of culture, religion and even language as chalk and cheese. Three main religions - Islam (67%) in the Kashmir Valley, Hinduism (30%) in the Jammu region and Buddhism (about 2.5%) in Ladakh, nine different languages and different nutrition and sartorial habits make Jammu and Kashmir one of a kind. Why, the state even has two capitals, one for summer and one for winter. These differences have naturally percolated into the political thinking of the state and should, naturally, be reflected in any election to the state assembly. Add to these the historical accession issue and the picture is complete.
So it was no surprise that all major parties in the state got their fair share of votes and seats. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) topped with 28, the Bharatiya Janata Party got 25, the National Conference (NC) 15 and the Congress Party 12. All seemed pretty much happy and satisfied with the way things had panned out.
Everyone knew that the BJP’s “Mission 44” slogan was for general consumption - “just to enthuse the grassroots worker,” as one national leader said on television - and the fact that the party ended up cornering the largest vote share in the state – 23% - must itself have been immensely satisfying for Prime Minister Narendra Modi . (If anyone were to tell you that the “Modi wave” is a myth, you only have to show them the J&K election results).
Even the NC’s Omar Abdullah, despite the double blow of losing power and getting defeated in one of the two seats – Sonawar - he contested, was ecstatically giving interviews to all and sundry saying how happy he was with the overall results.
The debacle of the parliamentary elections followed by defeats in Haryana and Maharashtra had left the Congress in a shambles. It was being written off in Jammu and Kashmir as well. By winning 12 seats the Congress may not be in a position to have a say in the eventual power equation in the state, but that is no dampener for a so-called “no-hopper.” Sajjad Lone, once an ardent adviser of separation from India, also has two seats to his credit, including one for himself, and he has declared he is ready to co-operate with anyone for the betterment of the state.
It is rare that an election, leave alone one in a state that has had such a chequered history, has left the contesting parties in such equilibrium. The people of Jammu and Kashmir have spoken in no uncertain terms. They have chosen parties and legislators with care. Yes, the divide is still very much in evidence. While the Hindu-dominated Jammu region has opted to go mainly with the BJP, the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley has chosen anybody but the BJP. The Ladakh region has mainly stood by the Congress. Fractured mandate, one might say it is, but only an over-the-moon optimist would have expected anything else.
It’s all black and white and no grey areas. Far from being an impediment, such a clear-cut verdict should only help whichever formation comes to power in the state. Simply put, it could even be a “you-look-after-yours-I’ll-look-after-mine” sort of arrangement. The NC has apparently offered to support both the PDP and the BJP if either of them were to try to form a government. The Congress, for its part, has given unconditional support to anyone except the BJP. At one point the PDP, looking for a grand alliance with the NC, the Congress and independents, had even boasted of having the support 61 of the 87 members in the assembly.
However, presently the PDP and the BJP are looking to move closer to each other. If the two largest parties can find common ground the state can hope to have five years of stable government. With Modi focusing on development, this is perhaps the best opportunity for Jammu and Kashmir, more especially the Kashmir Valley, to come out of the morass of unemployment, poverty and all the attendant ills.
For Modi too this is a golden chance to prove that what he preached all through his election campaign: “Sabka saath, sabka vikas” (Together with everyone, development for everyone) was no vain electioneering boast. A year ago it was unthinkable that the BJP could make an impact in any election in Kashmir. It is now within striking distance of sharing power. While Uttar Pradesh with its massive 49.7mn electorate could be the most important state for any party ruling in Delhi, Kashmir could well be considered the last frontier, somewhat literally too, to conquer to make a pan-India presence.
There will be impediments on the way. Already some PDP legislators have threatened revolt if the party aligns with the BJP. The declared positions on several key issues like Article 370 which bestows special status to the state, the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) which has been in vogue in the Kashmir Valley since 1990 and, of course, Pakistan are very hardboiled and there will be enough people on both sides to try and spoil any rapprochement. Both Modi and PDP chief Mufti Mohamed Sayeed will have to rise to the occasion and show the kind of statesmanship that would rewrite history.
Sayeed had walked that road some distance with Atal Behari Vajpayee in 2003 for what is generally considered the closest the nation had reached in solving the Kashmir tangle. The BJP was nowhere near the power centre in Srinagar in those days. Still Sayeed had extended a helping hand when Vajpayee sought it in his bid to find a solution to the vexing issues but BJP’s defeat in 2004 spoiled the efforts. The BJP is very much holding a strong hand now, but will have to climb down from its reported demand for chief ministership, among other things. Will Sayeed be ready to perform an encore and will Modi, who had invoked Vajpayee time and again during his speeches in Srinagar and elsewhere in the state, be ready to follow in his predecessor’s footsteps? Only time will tell.
For now, it can only be said that the politics of Jammu and Kashmir is on the cusp of a very visibly radical change. It is incumbent on the parties involved to seize the moment. If they miss the opportunity, not just Jammu and Kashmir but the whole nation will not forgive them.
In Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, the Hollywood superhit of late 1980s, Inspector Andre, played superbly by Anton Rodgers, tells Lawrence Jamieson (Michael Caine) that a brilliant and mysterious conman has hit their town in the south of France. When Jamieson asks Andre where he got the information from, the inspector tells him he read it in that morning’s newspaper. To which Jamieson remarks: “If it’s in the papers, how mysterious can he be?”
Goes to prove, once again, that there are few things in this world that you can hide from the newspapers. No less a person than India’s National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval will vouch for this.
In the last days of the Manmohan Singh-led government there had been a flurry of leaks that the press in the national capital had lapped up with glee. The trend seemed to continue even after Narendra Modi took over. The leaks were most prominent in the ministry of human resources development headed by Smriti Irani.
So Doval wrote to Cabinet Secretary Ajit Kumar Seth and Home Secretary Anil Goswami seeking an end to such leaks to the media. But Doval had not reckoned with the Delhi press. His letter got leaked promptly!
An inquiry is now under way to fix responsibility for the leak of Doval’s letter. Watch this space!
