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At one end of Kiev’s protest zone, just inside a makeshift barricade, demonstrators have set up a mock jail with an effigy of President Viktor Yanukovych sitting in a striped convict’s tunic, his arms raised above him in manacles. |
In the past few weeks as anti-government protests have grown in intensity, it has become a common spot for a Sunday outing.
Parents send their children to pose for family album snapshots alongside the jailbird.
That Yanukovych could be brought down by the present spasm of street violence and face prosecution for his “crimes” in office might be wishful thinking by his most ardent opponents.
Despite two months of unrest after pulling out of a trade deal with the European Union and moving closer to Russia, there is nothing to suggest that the 63-year-old former construction worker is in danger of falling from power.
But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sounded yesterday a note of alarm when he admonished European governments for “interfering” in Ukraine’s political crisis, a regular complaint of Moscow (
“The situation is spinning out of control,” he said.
Yanukovych appears to be still in charge of the security forces who are holding back from an all-out offensive against protesters. There have been no public defections from his camp and the super-wealthy “oligarchs” who bankroll him have not broken ranks.
But nonetheless his options are narrowing as street violence against his rule grows more intense following policy blunders – the latest being the passage of sweeping legislation that bans virtually any form of anti-government protest.
In the worst violence that anyone can remember in Kiev, radical protesters have been battling police day and night near the main government building, lobbing cobblestones, fireworks and sometimes petrol bombs, undeterred by the stun grenades and rubber bullets fired back at them.
Though a line of three priests kept the two sides apart yesterday in a temporary truce, it seemed only a question of time before violence resumed.
With Ukraine in uncharted territory now, Yanukovych is running out of ways to reclaim control of the streets peacefully, having turned his back on compromise and used the promise of talks with the opposition only to play for time.
He might even declare a state of emergency backed by a curfew, some analysts say, though this option was ruled out by a presidential aide yesterday.
“There will be no declaration of a state of emergency,” Andriy Klyuev, secretary of the National Council of Security and Defence, told journalists in reply to a question.
“The authorities may be expecting – even accidentally – some deaths, which would provide them with a pretext for escalating the conflict. It would be an excuse for decisive action,” said independent analyst Volodymyr Fesenko of the Penta think-tank.
After the initial burst of anger following last November’s U-turn away from Europe and heavy-handed police treatment of student protesters, Yanukovych may have hoped to win over the public after securing a $15bn aid package from Russia.
But any tangible benefit from Russian aid has yet to trickle down to the Ukrainian public, many of whom feel more sore about losing a European future including visa-free travel to the West.
When Yanukovych loyalists in parliament last Thursday rushed through draconian laws against public protest – legislation which could have come from an old Soviet playbook – it was the last straw for protesters whose numbers had until then been dwindling on Kiev’s Independence Square.
“These laws were a police club to hold over protesters and neutralise them. All they did was pour oil on the flames, make the situation sharper and radicalise the protests. These laws were the biggest mistake of Yanukovych this year,” Fesenko said.
Analysts see missteps too from opposition leaders who have been pushing over-ambitious demands for early elections and the dismissal of the government.
“They fluctuate between saying they expect dictatorship and then the next day saying they sense victory. Their demands too are unrealistic: calling for early presidential and parliamentary elections is not realistic,” said Fesenko.
But the impression is growing that Yanukovych, a hard-to-read politician whose public appearances are becoming more and more rare, could be out of tune with the real threat on the streets.
Berezovets said Yanukovych, whose official movements are largely unknown, relies for guidance only a restricted group of advisers.
“He meets regularly with only 6-7 people. This is a dangerous situation: he has a tight group round him and depends only on their recommendations. He does not see the situation on the ground,” Berezovets said.