In the eye of a storm:  the buzz is that Musharraf will be eventually eased out of the country on some pretext.

By Kamran Rehmat/Doha

There is near-frenzied speculation on the treason trial of General (retired) Pervez Musharraf, despite the fact that he is almost certainly inconsequential to the future of Pakistani politics.

The incredulity becomes even more pronounced when you consider the South Asian nation is entangled in a web of sticky issues, not the least of which is the existential angst related to a draining war on extremism, and which, last week claimed the life of a celebrated police officer likened to Dirty Harry for his daredevilry.

But the fate of the former army chief and self-styled president, currently facing - rather, trying not to face - a treason trial is hogging all the limelight. Perhaps, there is a raison d’être, after all, and that lies in the unprecedented nature of the case.

He is the first chief of the army, serving or retired, against whom a case for treason has been initiated - a red line always considered impossible to cross.

Actually, the Musharraf trial makes for great copy even if it detracts from the basic issues Pakistan is confronted with;chiefly,good governance - the past half-a-year has only seen the woes of an average Pakistani multiplied.

But as was expected, Prime Minister Sharif has a Rubicon puzzle on his hands with the Musharraf case, notwithstanding the gingerly rhetoric about following the law and letting the court decide the case of his sworn nemesis.

The fact is that few in Pakistan had anticipated that Musharraf would stand his ground - and that the obduracy would last this long - after he was barred from contesting the national elections last May when he returned home, defying foes and friends alike in following his dream of a second innings.

But what was evident to almost anyone who cared to note, save for himself, Musharraf was merely pushing his luck - perhaps, mistakenly assuming that his compatriots were waiting for him to turn their fates around.

The joke was that he had read too much into his Facebook following, which is the highest of any Pakistani anywhere, but even as a regular Facebooker can make out “likes” can be quite a deceptive affair, contextually speaking.

The former strongman even overlooked the advice rendered by his ilk: the recently retired General Parvaiz Kayani, his successor in fatigues, pleaded with him to stay away from Pakistan months before he took the flight back home.

The-then Inter-Service Intelligence chief Shuja Pasha is reported to have personally carried the message to the-then self-exiled Musharraf, but in vain.

The reason the previous military leadership did not want Musharraf to return was premised in a situation where the institution would be willy-nilly dragged in to save his skin - something that, in a changed Pakistan, where the superior judiciary led by the maverick Iftikhar Chaudhry and a lively media would brook no adventure, Kayani was averse to even contemplating.

The general impression is that the Kayani-led military establishment was initially cool to their former boss’s fate once he chose to ignore the advice to stay away and fly back home, which is explained by his odd appearance before a magistrate and subsequent “house arrest”.

Still attempts to persuade Musharraf to leave Pakistan were made both during the interim government’s tenure before the elections - especially, after he was rendered ineligible to contest by a poll tribunal - and after the polls as well but to no avail.

It is widely known that even Sharif has eschewed his long yearning to avenge Musharraf for overthrowing his government in 1999 and sending him into forced exile after the PML-N chief returned to power last May, but the retired general refused even the PML-N’s offer to fly out.

This is where the story gets interesting. Why did Musharraf refuse what seemed like a decent offer under the circumstances? It is apparent that the former strongman has been very confident all along that if push ever came to shove, the who’s who of both the civilian and military leadership of his time would be dragged into the trial - a spectre that is difficult to imagine given the limits of civilian or even judicial power.

However, against all expectation, the PML-N government did go ahead with a case for treason against Musharraf for suspending, subverting and abrogating the constitution under Article 6, which stipulates the death penalty.

It took the former dictator by surprise and he has been shy of facing the court for more than a fortnight now -  beginning with the inexplicable discovery of explosives outside the route of his palatial residence on the first two dates he was supposed to appear before court, and then suddenly, taking ill last week on the third occasion.

Independent experts surveying his medical files have categorically dismissed suggestions that he is in any need of treatment outside Pakistan.

The drama isn’t over yet after the court ordered Musharraf to appear on January 16 after going through his medical report and declared that he would be tried under Code of Criminal Procedure.

The Musharraf trial assumes significance in the context of civil-military relations - historically, a thorny ride with the khakis often upending civilian governments in a country governed for nearly half its existence by the military.

Sharif is learnt to have prevailed upon both General Raheel Sharif, the current army chief, whom he appointed last November, and his predecessor, General (retired) Ashfaq Kayani, about the need to conduct a trial as a constitutional obligation to strengthen the rule of law.

He is also reported to have assured the military leadership that his party will not seek any retribution for the harm Musharraf caused him in the past.

There is certain unease within the military ranks, which was manifest in how suddenly, a motley crew of former generals and other retired officers converged in Lahore last week to demand that any trial be conducted by the military itself.

The buzz is that the retired general will have to go through the motions for the while if only for symbolic purposes before he is eased out of the country on some pretext with the blessings of the government.

 

*The writer is features editor.