Customers shop for seafood at a market in the Ueno district of Tokyo. IMF first deputy managing director David Lipton yesterday said the global lender may upgrade its growth forecast for Japan.
Shinzo Abe’s three-pronged strategy of aggressive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and deregulation to end 15 years of deflation to bolster Japan’s economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) may upgrade its growth forecast for Japan, although the nation must start fiscal and structural reforms in 2014, IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton was cited as saying in an interview in the Financial Times.
The IMF’s economic growth forecast for Japan of 1.2% next year will probably rise because of extra stimulus measures, the FT said, citing Lipton. The government expects gross domestic product to increase 1.4%, according to budget documents released on December 22. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in December 2012 pledging a three-pronged, or a so-called three-arrow, strategy of aggressive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and deregulation to end 15 years of deflation.
“The first year was a year of opportunity for monetary policy and I think they hit the target and showed they were changing the trajectory for the economy,” Lipton was cited as saying. “The second year they have the opportunity to show that the second and third arrows are potent. It doesn’t mean they have to finish but they really have to start.”
The nation’s target of 2% inflation in about two years through the Bank of Japan’s bond-buying programme had led to a weaker yen, which “the international community is supportive of,” Lipton said. The yen has lost about 18% of its value versus the dollar this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Japan should proceed with an increase in its consumption tax to 8% in April from 5% now and manage the impact through extra government spending, the FT cited Lipton as saying. The economy will probably contract an annualised 3.9% in the three months after the tax gain, according to the median forecast of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The government should make it easier for women to participate in the job market, which would boost growth and increase the pool of taxpayers, Lipton said. He also called on Japan to sign up to the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact.