Iraq expects exports of crude from its southern terminals to fall in September due to maintenance, according to a preliminary loading schedule, although the decline appears to be less than initially thought.
The loading programme indicates exports of Basra Light crude will average about 1.8mn bpd in September, down 285,000 bpd from 2.085mn bpd initially planned in August.
The work in September is partly designed to increase export capacity. Shipments will be cut only during the first two weeks of the month, affecting the loading berths, an Iraqi official said last week.
Investors and oil companies are watching the level of Iraq’s exports closely as supply disruptions in Libya and reduced flows from Russia have tightened the market, helping to support oil prices near $115 per barrel.
The two loading programmes indicate an expected drop in Basra Light exports next month due to work on loading facilities may not be as much as the 500,000 bpd decline initially floated by Iraqi officials.
But loading programmes almost always change and August’s actual exports of Basra Light have averaged close to 2.3mn bpd so far, according to shipping data tracked by Reuters and industry sources.
That means the drop in supplies next month could approach 500,000 bpd without upward revisions to September’s schedule. Oil traders say there is a chance September’s exports could be revised up.
“It may change again,” said a trader of Iraqi crude. “They often add extra cargoes.”
Iraq’s oil revival, which got under way in 2010, has slowed this year due to infrastructure and security problems, keeping output below 3mn bpd in July, although supply is expected to start rising again later in the year.