Reuters/London

 

 

Opec’s petroleum exports jumped in value by almost 10% in 2012 year-on-year and the producers’ GDP climbed 12%, according to the group’s latest report, an income surge that looks harder to repeat this year.

The gains, announced in Opec’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2013 yesterday, reflect record prices and steadily climbing output last year from many members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

An increase in cash flow is a big advantage for producer countries as they face pressures including rising populations, infrastructure investment and increased social spending to head off Arab Spring-type protests.

The value of the group’s petroleum exports rose to $1.26tn in 2012 from $1.15tn in 2011, the report said, while its collective GDP at current prices amounted to $3.35tn, up from $3tn in 2011. Opec said petroleum exports also included refined oil products when applicable, as well as crude.

Libya posted Opec’s biggest increase in exports as its oil industry recovered after the 2011 civil war, earning petroleum export revenues of $60.2bn, up from $18.6bn in 2011.

The largest fall was in Iran, reflecting the drop in its oil exports last year because of tighter US and European sanctions over its nuclear programme. Iran’s petroleum exports declined to $101bn from $115bn in 2011.

In 2012, Brent crude averaged $111.70 a barrel, a record high. Analysts in a Reuters poll expect it to average around $106 this year, while Opec’s production overall has declined, suggesting revenue will struggle to beat 2012’s total in 2013.

Opec’s proven oil reserves, meanwhile, were little changed in 2012, according to the report. Reserves grew by 0.2% to 1.2tn barrels and Venezuela remained the biggest reserves holder.

The reserves figures are regarded with scepticism by some analysts, who cite competitive upgrades among members and no change in the reserves figures reported by some countries for a number of years.

Yesterday, oil prices nudged higher as supply disruptions in Europe helped halt last week’s losses, while cautious investors waited for the results of this week’s US Federal Reserve meeting.

Disruptions in Libya, Iraq, and elsewhere have removed well over 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supplies from the market. Other suppliers, such as Sudan, may see their exports reduced in the coming weeks, analysts say. North Sea benchmark Forties crude flows have been curbed due to maintenance.

The lost production helped bolster a market that has been worrying about the prospects for fuel demand as a number of economies, including China, experience slower growth.

Policymakers at the US central bank will meet today and tomorrow to discuss monetary policy.

“It’s going to be really difficult to knock the market down before the Fed statement,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Even though fundamentals seem to show that the prices should be lower, the Fed’s promise of quantitative easing could support the market.”

Brent crude gained 24¢ to trade at $107.40 per barrel by 1545 GMT, after slipping 0.8% last week, the largest weekly decline since May. US oil inched 3¢ higher to $104.73.

Gasoline futures lagged the complex, dipping 1¢ to $3.036 a gallon after tropical storm Dorian dissipated without causing any damage to the refining industry, and North Atlantic Refining announced that its 115,000bpd. Come By Chance refinery in Newfoundland was fully back online.

Carsten Fritsch, senior oil analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said the market appeared fairly balanced but investors had been “taking money off the table after a strong run-up a couple of weeks ago”.

Oil exports from several suppliers have been curtailed in recent weeks, stopping or reducing shipments from Libya, Iraq, the North Sea and elsewhere.

The North Sea’s Forties pipeline has cut pumping rates by about 40,000 bpd because of maintenance, trade sources said, tightening supply of the crude that underpins the Brent benchmark.

Explosions rocked the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi on Sunday, prompting Marathon Oil Corp to study the sale of its stake in Waha, a key Libyan oil consortium.

The Libyan oil minister said yesterday that operations at the crude oil export terminals of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf continued as normal, despite protests and strikes.

Data from the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) showed yesterday that large speculators increased their net long positions in Brent crude futures in the week to July 23.

The rise in long positions continues trends from the previous week, when hedge funds took huge positive bets on US crude just before the market turned lower. Positive wagers by money managers on US crude reached a record high for the week ended July 23, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.