Karnataka verdict a warning signal for Congress and BJP
Shoddy governance has finally taken its toll in Karnataka with the people voting out the Bharatiya Janata Party ruthlessly and bringing in the Congress from the wilderness it has been in for seven years. The crushing defeat of the BJP in its erstwhile southern citadel is the electorate’s slap on the party’s face for its real and perceived failures in the last five years of its stewardship. The Congress could regain power with a comfortable majority on the strength of what was clearly a mandate against the BJP.
Five years ago it was in similar situation that the people, fed up with the Congress misrule and corruption, chose the BJP as their saviour but corruption and infighting under three chief ministers touched shocking proportions, making them feel cheated. It is their backlash against the BJP that benefited the Congress now. The verdict may provide encouraging signals for the Congress but it would do well to remember that the win goes beyond the electorate’s renewed faith in it or disgust with the BJP government.
Corruption, nepotism, non-governance and instability have all constituted the campaign themes in this multi-cornered contest. All that the BJP was trying to do against the Congress at the national level, the Congress successfully did against the BJP in Karnataka. For this very reason, the Congress, far from crowing over its victory, might have more lessons to learn from it than the BJP from its defeat.
If the assembly election is a pointer to the national mood, the verdict should be seen as one against corruption and non-governance and not as an endorsement of the Congress and the series of scams that have unfolded under the watch of the United Progressive Alliance government being led by it at the Centre. The Congress needs to realise that its return to power in the state is by default and recognise that people will punish corruption and misgovernance.
The campaign that the Congress ran in Karnataka focused on arguing, successfully, about the BJP’s rampant corruption and poor governance in the state. Treading the same path soon after the state turned in its verdict, the prime minister said that the people of the country know ‘what is what.’ But political rhetoric aside, how far have Congress leaders decoded what the verdict really means for the party amidst the shroud of gloom and doom attached to it nationally?
If corruption was an issue in Karnataka, it could also be an issue in other states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi and Jharkhand which go to polls later this year, this time to the disadvantage of the Congress. The assembly elections in these states will, of course, lead up to the parliamentary elections in 2014. It is only probable that the scams making headlines across the country now will leave their impact on the general elections, where the performance of the Congress-led UPA government will be up for review by voters.
Indian politics is now well and truly federalised. A battle won in one state does not translate into a war won nationwide. Historically the astute voters in Karnataka have always voted differently in the state and national elections. A case in point is 2004 when both elections were held together; the same voter, at the same instant, voted differently. This time too they managed to keep the national-level scams of the UPA government out of its local scanner, responding to state-level scams by giving an elegant boot to corruption and political instability in Karnataka.
The Congress cannot afford to sit back and relax with the Karnataka victory. For winners to gloat and argue that “winner takes all” would be a trifle misplaced. Complacency, the enemy of success, would be absolutely unjustified on the part of Congress leaders. It has tried to do some damage control by getting rid of the two tainted ministers - Pawan Kumar Bansal and Ashwani Kumar - with great reluctance and, thereby, trying to retain high moral ground. But, is that enough?
As a party perpetually on the defensive for corruption, the victory in Karnataka brings much-needed respite for the Congress. The bigger reason for its cheer is the complete decimation of the BJP, its arch national rival, in Karnataka. But it should resist the temptation of falling into triumphalism. Rather it should draw the right lessons even if it is a bit late in the day. Drawing the right lessons from defeat is tough enough; it is much tougher to learn from victory.
One fallout of the poor strategising by the BJP was that the substantial anti-Congress vote got split three ways - the BJP, Janata Dal (Secular) and Karnataka Janata Paksha of Yeddyurappa, giving the Congress a cakewalk. Former chief minister Yeddyurappa may have failed to win many seats but he proved a good spoiler for BJP. The BJP also relied in the star power of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to inject a bit of life into the listless party. But Modi magic did not work despite his best efforts to overwhelm local factors.
The election results are indeed a warning signal for both the national parties which they can ignore only at their peril. People are not carried away by national leaders’ rhetorical speeches at election rallies or debating skills of party spokespersons frequenting TV channels. It is the issues affecting their day-to-day life, poor governance and graft that shape their perceptions and dictate their choices.
Since the Congress was chosen as a better option, it will have to deliver on governance in order to retain and attract investment and fulfil the aspirations of a young population. The state, which is supposed to be hub of the IT industry, has seen investors move out in recent times, thanks to appalling infrastructure and rampant corruption.
Siddaramaiah, who was sworn in as chief minister on Monday, was the obvious choice of the newly elected Congress MLAs. The intra-party democracy marks a welcome change. His immediate announcement of pro-people sops amounting to Rs44bn per year may augur well for the new regime, but the major challenge before him and his yet-to-be-selected team is to deliver a clean government that is responsive to the people’s aspirations. The mandate is to perform or perish.