Guardian News and Media/London
Traditional, middle-ranking universities face extinction within the next decade, a leading education expert has said.
Sir Michael Barber, chief education adviser of the world’s biggest education firm, Pearson, said even elite universities could struggle to survive in the face of competition from online courses and giant for-profit colleges.
In a report for the Institute for Public Policy Research, a centre-left thinktank, Barber urges British universities to “mark themselves out of the crowd” to stop an “avalanche of change” sweeping them away.
“The traditional multipurpose university with a combination of a range of degrees and a modestly effective research programme has had its day,” he writes in his report, An Avalanche Is Coming.
“While some of the most elite universities will no doubt be strong enough to continue for others it may prove more difficult. They will need an offer that marks them out from the crowd.”
Barber, who was chief adviser on delivery to Tony Blair, said the threat was from giant US for-profit colleges, such as the University of Phoenix, DeVry University and Laureate, and free online courses.
At its peak, Phoenix has had more than 600,000 students, while DeVry has more than 70,000 undergraduates and Laureate has a presence in 29 countries. However, Phoenix is one of a number of for-profits to have had its admissions procedures criticised.
In 2004, it was fined $9.8mn (£6.56mn) for paying incentives to recruiters. “I wouldn’t be surprised if there weren’t a few (universities) that could go under, given that this avalanche is coming,” Barber said. “I think within a decade or so that is possible.”