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Fossil fuels are likely to dominate the energy scene in 2050 with natural gas being the number one source followed by coal, a round table session was told at the 20th World Petroleum Congress yesterday.
The discussion on ‘The Energy Mix of 2050,’ moderated by Jean-Jacques Mosconi, senior vice-president (strategy), Total SA France, saw a number of predictions on the world energy structure.
John McDougall (president, National Research Council, Canada) approached the topic from an innovation process point of view.
Referring to the development of the shale gas sector he said the application of technology will lead to unexpected changes and pointed out that shale gas reserves now exceed conventional gas resources.
Shale gas refers to natural gas that is trapped within shale formations. Shales are fine-grained sedimentary rocks that can be rich sources of petroleum and natural gas.
Over the past decade, the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has allowed access to large volumes of shale gas that were previously uneconomical to produce. The production of natural gas from shale formations has rejuvenated the natural gas industry in the US.
“The demand for power is predicted to go up from 12.9 terrawatt to 30 terrawatt in 2050. Sun is giving us 800 terrawatt a day,” McDougall said while urging better utilisation of solar power and energy from geothermal, biomass, algae and fusion technologies.
Roberto F Aguilera (research fellow, Curtin Business School, Australia) predicted that fossil fuels are likely to dominate the energy scenario even in 2050, with natural gas being the number one source followed by coal.
“There should be deregulation and privatisation in the energy sector,” he urged.
Peter Newman (director, The Addax & Oryx Group, UK) presented a future scenario of conflicts for resources, considering that the world population, which has doubled in the last 40 years to 7bn, is expected to reach 9bn by 2050.
“Efforts to contain atmospheric carbon (CO2 emissions) to 450 parts per million (ppm) will be inadequate,” he said referring to an ongoing debate in the global environmental circles.
The UN negotiations are currently aimed at reducing global emissions to achieve a limit of 450ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, according to Environment and Energy News.
The Copenhagen Climate Accord signed in 2009 recognised a 2-degree-Celsius temperature rise, which is generally correlated with an atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration of 450 ppm, as the scientifically safe limit for temperature increase.
However, some prominent scientists dispute that number, saying 350 ppm should be the limit.
The concentrations of 2010 sat at a hair under 390 ppm, E&E News added.
Newman also predicted that local and regional conflicts over the next four decades will slow growth and infrastructure investment hard to finance. There will be efforts to indigenise energy production.
Mosconi added that natural gas will be the number one source of energy by 2030, followed by coal.