By Peter Apps/London

 

 

Rebel fighters walk during a battle along the road between Ras Lanuf and Bin Jiwad yesterday
Muammar Gaddafi will likely want to wipe out opposition around Tripoli and in western Libya out of sight of the world’s media before fighting toward the rebels’ stronghold in the east, military and political analysts say.

Forces loyal to the Libyan leader have managed to advance from his central family base of Sirte through important oil areas towards the de facto opposition capital of Benghazi - but the fiercest fighting may be much closer to Tripoli.

Pro-Gaddafi forces entered the main square of Zawiyah, 50km (30 miles) from the capital, on Wednesday as rebels fighting to hold it pulled back, a fighter contacted by Reuters said.

A local doctor confirmed the report and said the death toll in the day’s fighting was at least 40 and probably many more.

Opposition forces still hold Misrata, a coastal city between Tripoli and Sirte, but Gaddafi loyalists were reported moving on it with tanks and troops.

“He is effectively besieging them,” said John Drake, senior risk consultant at London-based advisory firm AKE.

“He wants to lock down opposition in the West and send a strong signal both to the opposition, who at the moment risk losing momentum. As things stand, fighting looks likely to go on for days and possibly much longer.”

Libya experts said Gaddafi would be reluctant to risk sending his remaining loyal forces too far east until he was confident he had removed much of the threat closer to home.

 “(Zawiyah) is a very strategic location,” said Khaeri Aboushagor, spokesman for the London-based opposition group the Libyan League for Human Rights.

“He wants it for the refinery ... but more importantly he needs to take Zawiyah to move forces up. Only then can he hope to make a move on Benghazi.”

While the eastern front around the key oil export hubs of Bregha, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad has been heavily covered by foreign journalists entering rebel territory from Egypt, the Western battle is taking place largely out of sight, with information very difficult to obtain.

“We continue to receive unconfirmed reports of serious human rights abuses that, if true, paint a disturbing picture of what the Libyan leader and those around him are prepared to do to stay in power,” said Amnesty International spokesman James Lynch.

According to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, Gaddafi has long stored most of his heavy military equipment in the west with loyalist units, storing little in less politically reliable eastern regions.

“The ... differences between the military units stationed in the east of the country, which has traditionally been anti-Tripoli, and those in the west are stark,” it said in a bulletin.

“Apart from a few mechanised units in Benghazi and Tobruk, and a few armoured battalions near Albayda, rebel-controlled areas lack any substantial hardware with which to take on the pro-Gaddafi stronghold of Tripoli.”

IISS said Gaddafi had been able to deploy relatively modern T72 tanks in western regions, while opposition forces in the east were left with much older T55s, rocket launchers and anti-aircraft guns.

Loyalist forces have also used heavy artillery on the central coastal front, apparently outgunning anything the opposition have been able to put up against them.

Analysts say tribal allegiances may be key to the loyalty of individual army units and troops - but many commanders and leaders may be keen to wait on the sidelines to see which way the conflict seems to be going.

The Libyan leader still faces risks even in Tripoli where protesters have periodically taken the streets - the lesson he may have learned from the revolutions in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt is that overwhelming street protests in the capital can be more dangerous than any uprising outside.

But Gaddafi has proved willing to crack down much more harshly than either of his neighbours. - Reuters