Supply gaps are distorting the hopeful view of the energy transition with several materials essential to energy and grid technology under significant strain. Even electricity’s best friend, copper, faces significant shortages and price swings. Mines and suppliers are struggling upstream to deliver components for the heightened grid load from massive AI data centre expansion, re-industrialization, and the global transportation transition from combustion vehicles to electric ones. There are five data centres throughout Qatar, with over $3 billion planned for more investment into their development. Doha, now like many cities across the world, is no stranger to this sudden electricity burden.This is one reason why the Qatar Investment Authority, working to fund energy development and climate goals, has taken a notable interest in copper supply, funding half a billion dollars to Ivanhoe Minerals only late last year. Qatar largely relies on imported recycled copper from the UAE, an unsustainable supply dependent on excess construction materials. Furthermore, recycled copper is not plentiful enough to meet the expected 50% surge in demand from current levels by 2030. In fact, by 2040, copper supply is expected to have a 24% deficit. Mines are expected to expand output, but little attention has been given to the suppliers who ship and manage the logistics of minerals trade worldwide. Traditionally, large commodity traders like Glencore and Trafigura, or national state-owned enterprises would provide this material, but new market entrants are now appearing — a nod to both innovation and the insatiable global demand for electricity components. Companies like BGN Group, traditionally known for its oil and gas business, and First Quantum Minerals, an expanding miner, have done just this. Two firms that play new and outsized roles in providing metals and critical minerals for the energy transition. Such suppliers sit at the heart of today’s energy transition. The triple shock to energy grids from data centres, re-industrialization spending, and EV adoption marks a major step in global electrification efforts. Electrifying transportation, heat generation, or food production, for example, may entail success for efficiency, but it also produces huge stress on the vectors of energy production. Copper is needed in large amounts, and investments are flowing in to facilitate greater output. BGN Group, based in Geneva and best known for its LPG and crude portfolios, recently announced the hiring of former Trafigura executive Claire Blanchelande to head its new global metals desk. This indeed marks a new phase for the expanding group as an agile metals and minerals supplier. Mining takes time and has little flexibility to anticipate the rapidly changing demands from AI-driven development or renewable energy innovations. Legacy mining companies like BHP or Glencore are also inhibited by regulatory and ESG constraints or shareholder dividends, which divest capital otherwise used for mining expansion. The stress in the system has led to strategic reconsiderations of alternative sourcing. For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia hold major deposits of copper but are hard to access due to export and supply chain constraints, along with some questionable conduct from legacy players. There are a few midstream solutions along the supply chain that could mitigate the risks currently weighing down energy grids. Access to both the DRC and Zambia has expanded as regional peace and human rights concerns improves stability. This has brought improved infrastructure and more transparent export practices. For example, First Quantum Minerals, a Canadian company, has invested in local suppliers who can facilitate supply chain development in Zambia. This approach, however, remains slower than more vertically integrated supply solutions like BGN Group, which has been able to establish a commodities trading centre for the DRC, significantly enhancing export transparency for the region. Suppliers play an essential role in accelerating trade expansion and subsequent grid development. They can also cause hiccups in the whole process or counter climate goals. Firms have been accused of environmental violations, such as dumping toxic waste in the Ivory Coast, as well as market manipulation schemes which resulted in hefty fines.As copper buyers are desperate to begin developing their projects, they need to rely on trustworthy suppliers who can likewise act as clean brokers capable of upholding standards of transparency, consistency, and innovation. Flexibility in the supply chains continues to tighten up as demand rises. BGN Group stands out as one key supplier that has leveraged its original oil and gas partnerships to create innovative solutions in metals trading. It also provides hybrid shipping models in and out of African trade hubs meaning its fleet can access the broad range of deep, shallow, analogue or advanced port infrastructure on the continent. There is a logistics void that has weighed down supply-side development. Innovative companies that are also compliant with international legal standards, whether miners, suppliers, or utilities transmitters, will need to step in to avert the immense economic drag created by a copper supply gap through the next few decades. Without a healthy supply chain diversity, major players — whether states or corporations — will have unfettered control to step into and control the critical minerals sector. Along this vein, new and agile companies are vital for ensuring a diverse and energetic global market, ready to meet global energy demand.
