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Monday, December 29, 2025 | Daily Newspaper published by GPPC Doha, Qatar.

Search Results for "covid 19" (360 articles)

Gulf Times
Region

Lebanese Health Minister to QNA: Qatar a Global Model in Integrated Healthcare

Lebanon's Minister of Public Health Dr. Rakan Nassereddine highlighted the depth of the distinguished relations between the State of Qatar and Lebanon, praising Qatar's leadership in the health sector. In an interview with Qatar News Agency (QNA), the Lebanese Health Minister affirmed that the relations between the two countries date back many years and are based on a shared commitment to supporting and developing them in various fields. He praised the significant development witnessed by the State of Qatar across various sectors, particularly in the health field, noting that Qatar represents an advanced model to be emulated in integrated healthcare systems both regionally and internationally. He stressed Qatar's steadfast support for Lebanon and its continued assistance, especially in the health sector, highlighting the ongoing cooperation with the Qatar Fund for Development in the reconstruction of Karantina Hospital. He explained that Qatar's support for the Lebanese health sector has been present throughout various stages — starting from the COVID-19 pandemic, through the Beirut Port explosion, and up to the recent Israeli aggression against Lebanon--affirming that this continuous support reflects the depth of the fraternal relations between the two countries. The Minister also referred to his recent visit to Doha to participate in the 6th Global Ministerial Summit on Mental Health, noting the meetings he held with several officials from Qatar Charity, the Qatar Cancer Society, the Qatar Fund for Development, and the Qatar Red Crescent, during which ways of enhancing bilateral cooperation in the health and humanitarian fields were discussed. Dr. Nassereddine expressed his gratitude to the State of Qatar for its continued support to Lebanon, affirming his country's readiness to strengthen health cooperation and exchange expertise, particularly in crisis response and in dealing with injuries resulting from disasters and wars. He emphasized the importance of Arab partnerships, including with Qatar, to support Lebanon's health sector, which suffers from limited resources but at the same time boasts highly qualified and skilled professionals. He revealed an improvement in healthcare coverage for patients under the supervision of the Lebanese Ministry of Health, through the expansion of medication protocols — especially for cancer treatment — along with the gradual inclusion of kidney transplants and heart valve procedures, in addition to enhancing mental health support, particularly for chronic cases. The Minister of Public Health, pointed out that the ministry's 2024 budget amounted to around $445 million, while the 2025 budget is approximately $480 million, noting that more than $200 million of this amount is allocated to hospital care.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
Business

Qatar's Blue Owl Capital partnership indicates GCC region’s 'comparative advantage' to host data centres: Georgieva

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has highlighted the GCC region’s “comparative advantage” in terms of access to energy that helps it host data centres and cites Qatar's partnership with Blue Owl Capital as an example.“GCC’s comparative advantage in terms of access to energy is helping it unlock major projects to host data centres. Examples include partnerships with Humain and Nvidia in Saudi Arabia, Blue Owl Capital in Qatar, or the US-UAE AI accelerated partnership,” Georgieva said in her meeting with the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) in Kuwait.Georgieva noted: “The last time we saw each other was during the Spring Meetings six months ago. At the time, trade tensions brought global uncertainty to new highs, contributing to a downward revision in our global growth projections.“Since then, a series of trade agreements and pauses in tariff increases have prevented escalation. Almost all countries subjected to US tariffs have refrained from retaliating. This, combined with the fact that the rest of trade relations among countries remain guided — so far — by WTO rules, allowed us to avoid a full-scale trade war.”In addition, she noted the private sector has shown “impressive” agility and adaptability, front-loading cross-border purchases, adjusting supply chains and pursuing investment strategies aligned with a more complex global environment.And access to finance has eased both for the public and the private sector. As a result global growth prospects are better than feared during our last meeting in April.Yet, they are still worse than pre-Covid and the world economy remains in flux. Major transformational forces are in play, from geopolitics to trade relations, technology and demography, producing new opportunities but also new risks.They steer anxiety in societies and complicate the job of policymakers. Navigating uncertainty is becoming the new normal.She said, “In this environment, risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. Protectionism could lead to escalation of trade tensions, with negative impact on supply chains. Erosion of confidence could constrain consumption and investment. Shocks to labour supply, including from changing immigration policies, could lower growth, especially in countries with aging populations.”Georgieva said the outlook is not homogeneous — while some parts of the world are slowing down, others do better. Growth is expected to accelerate in the Middle East and Central Asia as global headwinds are offset by an increase in oil production, and structural reforms pay off.“As for the GCC, a year ago I said that the GCC ‘remains a bright spot’ despite the numerous shocks.”Since then, global uncertainty has increased, including related to shifts in the global trade system, while oil prices have declined and geopolitical tensions have intensified.“Yet, despite this increasingly challenging environment, the GCC continues to deliver strong and steady performance and is still a bright spot in the world economy. You, the finance ministers and central bank governors of the region, deserve credit for the strong reform momentum underlying this. It is making the GCC more resilient, as evidenced by limited spillovers from tensions and conflicts in the region,” Georgieva said.She noted the impact of higher US tariffs on GCC economies has been modest, with exports to the US ranging from just 0.1% of total exports for Kuwait and up to 8% for Bahrain.“Against this backdrop, we now expect overall GCC growth to accelerate to a 3-3.5% range in 2025 and close to 4% in 2026, supported by the resilience of the non-hydrocarbon economy, the unwinding of voluntary oil production cuts, and the expansion of natural gas production.”Over the medium term, non-hydrocarbon activity is set to remain strong on the back of ambitious reform efforts facilitated by ample policy buffers — both official reserves and those available through sovereign wealth funds. This activity is expected to offset the impact of lower oil prices.But there are risks to this outlook. Oil prices and revenues could be negatively affected by weaker oil demand, driven by elevated economic uncertainty, an escalation of global trade tensions, or deepening geo-economic fragmentation.Additionally, a potential supply glut may emerge as Opec+ continues to unwind voluntary oil production cuts at a time when demand remains weak.“In a downside scenario where oil prices temporarily fall to $40 per barrel, non-hydrocarbon GDP growth in the GCC could slow by 1.3 percentage points, while fiscal deficits could rise significantly. In addition, high global uncertainty could lead to tightening of financial conditions and lower FDI, thereby threatening the economic diversification agenda.“Over the medium term, the outlook remains subject to two-sided risks related to ongoing global structural shifts, such as the energy transition, potential global fragmentation, digitalisation and the use of AI,” Georgieva noted.

Gulf Times
Opinion

Science needs a new social compact

In 1945, as the world emerged from a global war that had demonstrated the strategic importance of scientific discovery and technological innovation, Vannevar Bush, the chief of America’s wartime Office of Scientific Research and Development, published a landmark text. In Science, the Endless Frontier, he argued that government should invest heavily in basic research, confident that scientific breakthroughs would translate into economic growth, improved health, and global preeminence.That vision was fully realised in the US, ushering in a golden age of discovery. The American research university underpinned US progress in science, and that progress established the country as a global leader in innovation.But even before President Donald Trump’s second administration had launched a full-scale assault on US universities and scientific research, Bush’s 80-year-old model was showing signs of age. The model has always rested on three assumptions: that there is a linear pathway from fundamental science to socially beneficial applied technologies; that scientists, largely free from regulation, would naturally generate outcomes in the public interest; and that the government could be relied on to fund basic research. None still completely holds true.Rarely has the scientific enterprise been both as important and as vulnerable as it is now. Climate change demands urgent innovation in clean energy. AI promises to unleash both revolutionary opportunities and profound risks. And while biotechnology holds the potential to cure numerous diseases, it also raises thorny ethical questions. Moreover, these fields are advancing at a time when public trust in science has eroded, federal funding has declined, and the line between basic and applied research has become blurrier with the rise of entrepreneurial labs and more interdisciplinary research teams.This issue has grown even more urgent now that the Trump administration is determined to slash research funding, weaponise federal grantmaking powers, and place extortionate demands on universities that it disapproves of (for whatever idiosyncratic reason). The situation demands a new social compact for science, one that recognises 21st-century political and industrial realities and reimagines the relationship between research and society.Research scientists’ vulnerability to the whims of populist political leaders and movements shows that we must establish more reliable forms of support. This is especially true when it comes to work on climate change, AI, and synthetic biology. Novel approaches to biomedical research are producing new therapies for cancer, infectious diseases, and a range of other challenges to our personal and public health; but these gains could be squandered without ongoing support.Moreover, today’s political environment forces us to recognise that the loss of trust in science can be reversed only by emphasising the role of science as a civic enterprise. Knowledge is not just the property of governments, researchers, universities, or corporations; it is a public resource. Research must be subject to institutional mechanisms of accountability, not only to ensure technical rigour, but also to monitor and manage its ethical, environmental, and social impact. If cutting-edge advances in AI are governed solely by technology companies, what confidence can we have that they will serve the public good? For science to regain public trust, it must demonstrate – in tangible ways – that it serves more than shareholder interests.Science also must be better networked and distributed. Discoveries happen not only at elite universities or in federal laboratories but also in private industry, and through international collaborations, citizen-science initiatives, and digital platforms. A new social compact for science must embrace this diversity.While industry and private philanthropy need to develop a more productive relationship with government-supported initiatives, we also need more open science, shared infrastructure, and interoperable data. These are not luxuries; they are necessary for accelerating discovery, ensuring transparency, facilitating broader participation, and drawing on more of the world’s talents and resources.Equally, we must invest in people, not just programmes. The current funding regime too often marginalises early-career scientists and rewards incremental advances over bold, groundbreaking ideas. A society that is serious about discovery must be willing to place risky bets on the next generation. That means empowering scientists with portable funding, more flexible career paths, and the freedom to pursue ambitious questions. We cannot afford to waste talent by locking it into bureaucratic cycles or prolonged postdoc precarity, and we must be more tolerant of failure.By the same token, science must become more interdisciplinary. Whether in fields like AI, which cries out for stronger ethical controls and social-science perspectives, or in some biological research, where the focus can be too narrow, there is an obvious need for broader intellectual participation. Science has the unique capacity to help us better understand the complex nature of the social and physical world, but only if we let it.At its core, science must be cross-sectoral by design. The old “triple helix” of government, universities, and industry is no longer sufficient. Civic institutions, individual communities, and others from around the world must be part of the process of shaping and creating scientific agendas. Scientists should learn to listen, so that they can engage with communities not as subjects or beneficiaries, but as partners in the design and direction of research. The Covid-19 pandemic was a powerful lesson in the need to engage communities early and often. Failing that, scientific messaging will no longer be widely trusted or heeded.The challenges before us – be they pandemics, climate change, or disruptive technologies – are not just scientific; they are social, political, and ethical as well. Bush’s vision helped win the peace and build prosperity after World War II. Our task today is to craft a vision for an even more fraught world. We need a new social compact to ensure that science remains a shared frontier that is free of political influence, open to all, accountable to society, and committed to both human and planetary flourishing. — Project SyndicateNicholas Dirks is President and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences.

Gulf Times
International

Trump visa curbs push US firms to consider shifting more work to India

Donald Trump's H-1B visa crackdown will hasten US firms' shift of critical work to India, turbocharging the growth of global capability centres (GCCs) that handle operations from finance to research and development, economists and industry insiders say.The world's fifth-largest economy is home to 1,700 GCCs, or more than half the global tally, having outgrown its tech support origins to become a hub of high-value innovation in areas from design of luxury car dashboards to drug discovery.Trends such as growing adoption of artificial intelligence and increasing curbs on visas are pushing US firms to redraw labour strategies, with GCCs in India emerging as resilient hubs blending global skills with strong domestic leadership."GCCs are uniquely positioned for this moment. They serve as a ready in-house engine," said Rohan Lobo, partner and GCC industry leader at Deloitte India, who said he knew of several US firms reassessing their workforce needs."Plans are already underway" for such a shift, he added, pointing to greater activity in areas such as financial services and tech, and particularly among firms with exposure to US federal contracts.Lobo said he expected GCCs to "take on more strategic, innovation-led mandates" in time.US President Trump raised the cost of new H-1B visa applications this month to $100,000, from an existing range of $2,000 to $5,000, adding pressure on US firms that relied on skilled foreign workers to bridge critical talent gaps.On Monday, US senators reintroduced a bill to tighten rules on the H-1B and L-1 worker visa programmes, targeting what they called loopholes and abuse by major employers.If Trump's visa curbs go unchallenged, industry experts expect US firms to shift high-end work tied to AI, product development, cybersecurity, and analytics to their India GCCs, choosing to keep strategic functions in-house over outsourcing.Growing uncertainty fuelled by the recent changes has given fresh impetus to discussions about shifting high-value work to GCCs that many firms were already engaged in."There is a sense of urgency," said Lalit Ahuja, founder and CEO of ANSR, which helped FedEx, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Target and Lowe's set up their GCCs.Such a rush could lead to "extreme offshoring" in some cases, said Ramkumar Ramamoorthy, a former managing director of Cognizant India, adding that the Covid-19 pandemic had shown key tech tasks could be done from anywhere.Big Tech, including Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Google parent Alphabet, along with Wall Street bank JPMorgan Chase and retailer Walmart were among the top sponsors of H-1B visas, US government data showed.All have major operations in India but did not want to comment as the issue is a politically sensitive one."Either more roles will move to India, or corporations will near-shore them to Mexico or Colombia. Canada could also take advantage," said the India head of a retail GCC.The largest companies in India, by revenue, that have a GCC in India.Even before Trump's hefty fee on new H1-B visa applications and plan for a new selection process to favour the better-paid, India was projected to host the GCCs of more than 2,200 companies by 2030, with a market size nearing $100bn."This whole 'gold rush' will only get accelerated," Ahuja said.Others were more skeptical, preferring a "wait and watch" approach, especially as US firms could face a 25% tax for outsourcing work overseas if the proposed HIRE Act is passed, bringing significant disruption in India's exports of services."For now, we are observing and studying, and being ready for outcomes," said the India head of a US drugmaker's GCC.India-US trade tension has spilled into services from goods, with visa curbs and the proposed HIRE Act threatening to reduce India's lower-cost edge and choke cross-border flows of services.While the $283bn IT industry that contributes nearly 8% of India's GDP may feel the strain, surging demand for GCC services could cushion such a blow, however."Lost revenues from H-1B visa reliant businesses could be somewhat supplanted by higher services exports through GCCs, as US-based firms look to bypass immigration restrictions to outsource talent," Nomura analysts said in a research note last week.

Gulf Times
Opinion

Record global debt levels spotlight on developing countries

Rising sovereign debt levels around the world are seen to be taking a toll on macroeconomic stability, just as squeezed government finances create particular risks for developing countries.Global debt hit a record high of $337.7tn at the end of the second quarter, driven by easing global financial conditions, a softer US dollar and a more accommodative stance from major central banks.The Institute of International Finance has said global debt rose over $21tn in the first half of the year.The US currency has weakened 9.75% since the start of the year against a basket of major trading partners.“The scale of this increase was comparable to the surge seen in H2-2020, when pandemic-related policy responses drove an unprecedented buildup in global debt,” the IIF said in its Global Debt Monitor.The debt-to-GDP ratios - an indicator of the ability to repay debt by comparing to what is being produced - Canada, China, Saudi Arabia and Poland saw the sharpest increases. The ratio declined in Ireland, Japan, and Norway.Total debt in emerging markets rose by $3.4tn in the second quarter to a record high of more than $109tn.The crisis is particularly acute for emerging markets, which face what experts are calling a “perfect storm” of challenging conditionsEmerging markets are facing an unprecedented refinancing challenge with nearly $3.2tn in bond and loan redemptions expected in the remainder of 2025. This massive wall of maturing debt comes at a time when global financial conditions are tightening and borrowing costs are rising across many jurisdictions.The situation has already manifested in real-world financial stress.In April 2025, Angola experienced a dramatic crisis when dollar bonds tumbled, triggering a $200mn margin call that pushed yields near 15%, effectively shutting the country out of global capital markets.This incident exemplifies the vulnerability of emerging market economies to sudden capital flight and liquidity shortages.One of the most concerning aspects of the current debt crisis is its potential impact on central bank independence and monetary policy effectiveness.The IIF report has highlighted particular concerns about US debt dynamics, noting that short-term borrowing now accounts for approximately 20% of total government debt and roughly 80% of Treasury issuance.The debt explosion is also exposing weaknesses in the global financial architecture that have been building for more than a decade.Since the 2008 financial crisis, financial intermediation has pivoted from lending to private sector borrowers to claims on government, especially in the form of sovereign bonds.The crisis has been exacerbated by the post-Covid persistence of large fiscal deficits.The global fiscal deficit continues to average around 5% of GDP, reflecting legacy costs from pandemic responses combined with rising net interest costs, according to the International Monetary Fund. Many governments continue running what amounts to recessionary budget deficits despite having exited recessions years ago.Governments should revert to previous norms on what constitutes excessive sovereign debt: 40% of GDP for low-income economies, 60% for high-income economies, with everyone else in between, according to a World Bank Blog in June.More than 3.4bn people now live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on health or education – 100mn more than last year, according to the UN. Debt service payments by developing countries have soared by $74bn in a single year, from $847bn to $921bn.In a wider sense, public debt can be vital for development as governments use it to finance their expenditures, protect and invest in their people, and to pave their way to a better future. However, it can also be a heavy burden, when public debt grows too much or too fast as it is happening today across the developing world.

Gulf Times
Opinion

Pressure on new PM as French debt hits record high

France’s public debt has ballooned to a record level, official data showed on Thursday, piling pressure on new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu as he confronts protests and political turmoil.The French debt totalled €3.4tn ($4tn) in the second quarter of the year, statistics bureau INSEE said, equivalent to 115.6% of France’s gross domestic product (GDP).The debt mountain grew nearly €80bn in the previous three months alone.France’s debt-to-GDP ratio is now the European Union’s third-highest after Greece and Italy, and is close to twice the 60% permitted under EU rules.Lecornu was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron this month to succeed Francois Bayrou, who was ousted by parliament in a fight over his austerity budget after just nine months on the job.But two weeks into the job, Lecornu has yet to form a new government and must deliver a budget proposal to parliament by mid-October, with a vote due by the end of the year.Both tasks are complicated by the power dynamics in the National Assembly, where the Macron-friendly bloc is in a minority.“I am the weakest prime minister of the Fifth Republic,” Lecornu said at a meeting with union leaders this week, according to participants, referring to France’s current system set up in 1958 under Charles de Gaulle.Bayrou had proposed a series of measures he said would save €44bn in a bid to curb France’s annual deficit — currently the EU’s highest — and put a dent in the spiralling debt.Lecornu, who is Macron’s seventh head of government since 2017, has vowed a break from the past in a bid to defuse the political crisis.But although Thursday’s data underlines the urgency of the situation, Lecornu will need to temper any ambition to slash spending radically, or risk suffering the same fate as Bayrou.Sensing his fragile position, unions have announced fresh demonstrations for October 2 after hundreds of thousands of people protested across France last week, with anger focused mostly on Macron whom they accuse of wanting austerity for the country while saving the wealthy from making similar sacrifices.Lecornu has tried to calm anger by promising to abolish life-long privileges for former prime ministers and Bayrou’s plan to scraptwo public holidays — but experts agree that both measures are largely cosmetic.France’s deficits have deepened in recent years because of accelerated spending to alleviate the impact of the Covid crisis and tooffset inflationary pressures, according to economists, but also because of unfunded tax cuts.“This deficit is not only a crisis deficit, it’s also structural,” said Mathieu Plane, deputy analysis and forecasting director at the OFCE,an economics institute.As Lecornu puts together his budget, reports from his consultations with various political forces have indicated that the right-wing opposition is holding out for €35bn of budgetary savings, while the left will stand for no more than €22bn.In a context where “the passing of a budget from one year to the next is already an extraordinary achievement”, the OFCE’s Plane told AFP, Lecornu should really seek to establish a plan “over several years” to stabilise the budget, but “without hurting the economy”.Beyond divisions in France, Lecornu is also facing growing pressure from international investors who have been demanding an increased risk premium for purchasing French sovereign debt — adding substantially to France’s debt financing bill.This month, US ratings agency Fitch downgraded France on its ability to pay back debts, from “AA-” to “A+”, warning that France’s debt mountain would keep rising until 2027 unless urgent action was taken.“We are not currently in a position that would allow us to stabilise the debt,” Francois Ecalle, president at Fipeco, a site specialising in public finances, told AFP.Ecalle recommended spending cuts as a remedy, but also tax hikes, including for the well-to-do.“It is necessary, if only for social and political reasons, to tax the rich a bit more,” he said. — AFP

World Health Organisation Awards presentation for UN Inter-Agency Task Force for NCDs event, on the sidelines of the 80th UN General Assembly.
Qatar

HMC’s QMI wins global award for obesity management

Hamad Medical Corporation's Qatar Metabolic Institute (QMI) has received the prestigious 2025 World Health Organisation (WHO) — UN Inter-Agency Task Force on Noncommunicable Diseases Award for its global leadership in obesity prevention and management.The award was presented during the 80th UN General Assembly in New York on Sept 25.Director of QMI and Division Chief of Endocrinology at HMC, Dr Dabia al-Mohanadi, said: "Obesity is one of the defining health challenges of our time, affecting families, communities and health systems worldwide. At QMI, we are reshaping how this chronic disease is addressed-building an integrated model that unites prevention, early detection, advanced care, education and research into a seamless system."This award affirms Qatar’s leadership in reimagining how countries can confront the global obesity epidemic with vision and innovation."Our mission is about people, not statistics. Every adolescent and every adult living with obesity deserves timely, compassionate care. By combining innovation, collaboration, and a patient-centred approach, QMI has positioned Qatar as a hub for solutions that can inspire and be scaled globally. The models of care pioneered in Qatar are already shaping the future of metabolic health worldwide."###OPT TRIMKey achievements and programmes of work by QMI recognised at the UNIATF Awards 2025 included: Specialist Care: Expanded multidisciplinary obesity and bariatric services across the National Obesity Treatment Centre, the National Bariatric Center, and Aisha Bint Hamad Al Attiyah Hospital, with tailored pathways for adolescents and people with disabilities; Integration and Care Pathways: Redesigned national obesity pathways to streamline referrals, strengthen care, and ensuring patients receive the right treatment at the right time. A robust monitoring and evaluation framework was also implemented to track outcomes, referral patterns, and patient feedback, creating a more efficient, equitable, and patient-centered system.Also among the achievements come Capacity Building: Established the region’s first ACGME-International accredited Obesity Medicine Fellowship Program and launched a CPD-accredited Certificate in Obesity Management and Bariatric Care that equips healthcare professionals with practical skills; Groundbreaking Research: Led landmark D trials, to identify that intensive lifestyle interventions can reverse early type 2 diabetes; Policy and Systems Leadership: Provided technical expertise to support the development of national guidelines and referral pathways; Innovation in Crisis: Maintained uninterrupted care during Covid-19 through virtual clinics, home delivery of medicines and obesity webinar series for the public, ensuring patients stayed informed and supported throughout the disruption; and Community Engagement: Led national campaigns such as World Obesity Day and World Diabetes Day, reaching tens of thousands through health screenings, education, and digital platforms.These initiatives supported people in managing obesity, addressing stigma and promoting healthier lifestyles.###TRIM ENDSThis recognition highlights QMI's role not only as Qatar's national leader in tackling obesity but also as a global model for integrated approaches to noncommunicable diseases. Building on this achievement, QMI will continue to drive innovation, strengthen partnerships, and scale solutions that improve health outcomes in Qatar and set new benchmarks globally.

Gulf Times
Business

QNB highlights resilient global trade

QNB confirmed that the beginning of 2025 was accompanied by cautiously positive expectations for global trade growth, supported by relative stability in the world economy. However, new shifts in US trade policy have significantly affected the global economic landscape. The bank's weekly report noted that the decision of the United States on Apr. 2 to impose broad tariffs including duties of no less than 10 percent on imports and higher rates on selected countries has led to rising concerns about supply chain disruptions, increased uncertainty, and the potential escalation of trade disputes. The report stated that, as a result, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast a contraction in global trade volumes for the current year, an occurrence that is rare and typically seen only in exceptional circumstances such as the 2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The report explained that economic indicators since April 2025 have shown notable resilience in the global economy despite existing challenges. It projected that global trade growth in 2025 will be modest compared to previous periods, but will remain far beyond the most pessimistic scenarios. This outlook is supported by three main factors. The first factor highlighted in the report is that leading indicators, particularly from highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam, reflect strong export activity, signaling a recovery in global trade. These markets recorded an average annual growth rate of 6 percent in 2024, with the rate accelerating to 12 percent in the last four months of the year despite trade tensions. The report also pointed to Chinese export growth of 6 percent during the same period, reflecting sustained global demand. In this context, the report stated that investor expectations regarding the earnings of transportation-sector companies serve as an important indicator of future global trade trends. The Dow Jones Transportation Average in the United States, which includes companies involved in air, land, and sea transport as well as rail and delivery services, reached its lowest annual growth level in mid-2024 before rebounding into positive territory, signaling a possible expansion of trade.This improvement reflects a decline in pessimism even amid continued trade shocks. The gap between strong Asian export growth and the more cautious profit expectations of transport companies was attributed to the increase in early shipments to the US market in anticipation of further tariff threats. The second factor concerns a significant decrease in the likelihood of large-scale global trade wars despite the rise of US protectionist policies. The report explained that the conclusion of US negotiations with key trading partners, including the United Kingdom, Japan, and the European Union, has clearly reduced uncertainty and lowered the probability of expanding tariff measures. At the same time, most global economies are moving toward greater trade integration through multilateral agreements, which reduces the negative impact of protectionist policies and strengthens the stability of the global trading system. The third factor relates to monetary policy. The report considered that waves of monetary easing adopted by major central banks are expected to provide additional support for global trade growth in the coming period. It noted that the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 125 basis points next year, bringing it down to 3.25 percent by the end of 2026, in an effort to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate economic activity. Similarly, the European Central Bank has lowered its key rate by 200 basis points since mid-2024 to settle at 2 percent.The report emphasized that interest rates are a decisive factor in supporting investment and boosting consumer spending, which are two key pillars of global trade, particularly given that the United States and the euro area together account for about 40 percent of global GDP. The bank concluded its report by affirming that the outlook for 2025 indicates a tangible improvement in the prospects for global trade compared to the more pessimistic scenarios that followed Washington's announcement of broad tariffs. It pointed out that a combination of positive economic indicators, accommodative monetary policies, and the signing of new trade agreements is helping to limit the repercussions of geopolitical and economic tensions and to support the stability of the global trading system in the upcoming period.

Mina District
Qatar

Qatar opening new horizons for visitors on World Tourism Day

In a world increasingly aware of sustainability, tourism emerges as a soft power reshaping economies and societies, expanding employment opportunities, developing infrastructure, building bridges between cultures, and promoting global understanding.Reflecting this pivotal role, the theme of World Tourism Day 2025 was chosen as Tourism and Sustainable Transformation, a global call to harness this vital sector in promoting inclusive development and building a more environmentally and economically balanced future.The 2025 celebration of World Tourism Day emphasises strategic planning for the development of facilities and establishments, as well as training workers in language learning and understanding the requirements of diverse audiences.It also seeks to open new horizons for visitors, strengthening a culture of travel and mobility by blending traditional entertainment with modern travel experiences and luxury.This is achieved through effective monitoring of social media and digital platforms to capture tourist decisions and the evolving trends in their choices.On this occasion, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres affirmed that tourism represents a driving force for transformation, as it strengthens connections between people and places, builds bridges across cultures, preserves traditions, restores cultural heritage, and reminds us of our shared humanity and diverse richness.He highlighted that the theme, Tourism and Sustainable Transformation, calls for investment in education and skills development, particularly for women, youth, and marginalised communities, as well as supporting micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises.He also urged greater climate action by reducing emissions across the entire tourism sector, preserving biodiversity, and protecting fragile ecosystems.According to a report by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the travel and tourism sector provides one in every ten jobs and accounts for one-tenth of global GDP.The report noted that the sector boosts economic growth through consumer spending and linked production chains.The contribution of travel and tourism to the global economy reached $10.9tn in 2024, underscoring its vital importance as a global economic pillar.Travel and tourism have also become one of the world’s largest sources of employment.In 2024, the sector supported a total of 357mn jobs, equivalent to one in every ten jobs worldwide.This reflects the sector’s role in generating direct employment in hotels, airlines, and restaurants, as well as indirect opportunities in related industries such as agriculture, food production, transportation, and infrastructure.Domestic visitor spending, known as domestic tourism, amounted to $5.3tn in 2024, an increase of 5.4% compared to 2023.Meanwhile, international visitor spending, outbound tourism, rose by 11.6% annually to reach $1.9tn, reflecting a strong rebound in cross-border travel in recent years.Observers point out that tourism is no longer confined to leisure destinations but has expanded to include diverse types that meet varying visitor needs and preferences.These include sports and beach tourism, as well as cultural tourism focused on exploring national heritage, history, traditions, and artistic expressions.Other forms include religious tourism, in addition to medical and wellness tourism sought by those pursuing treatment, natural therapies, or relaxation to achieve fitness and recovery.Environmental tourism, which emphasises exploring and appreciating the natural environment, also plays an important role.This wide diversity of tourism types not only caters to multiple interests but also strengthens the sector’s contribution to economic and social growth.Despite the policies and efforts aimed at enhancing the tourism sector, it continues to face numerous challenges, most notably climatic, health, and security-related factors.Tourist sites, whether cultural or natural, can be severely damaged by natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and storms.Tsunamis, earthquakes, and wars are among the gravest threats to tourism activities.Armed conflicts and social unrest can also lead to significant declines in visitor numbers and tourism flows.The sector is equally vulnerable to highly contagious diseases.The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, for example, imposed strict global restrictions on land, sea, and air travel, leading to the closure of major tourist attractions such as museums, parks, and other destinations, as well as restaurants and hotels that provide leisure services.As a result, the sector contracted globally by 3.4% in 2020, highlighting its sensitivity to major health crises.In recent years, digital transformation and the use of electronic applications have played a significant role in facilitating tourist mobility.These include travel booking systems, flexibility in personal rescheduling, streamlined airport procedures, and improved hospitality services for tour groups.Such technology has become a central pillar in advancing tourism development and enhancing the visitor experience.In Qatar, tourism receives significant attention from government institutions and the tourism authority, particularly in terms of developing and diversifying tourism facilities, overcoming climate challenges, and providing an integrated infrastructure suitable for all seasons of the year.This includes hotels, transportation networks, wellness resorts, artificial islands, and sports and entertainment facilities, thereby strengthening Qatar’s position within its competitive regional environment.In this context, several entities stand out, led by Qatar Tourism (QT) and Visit Qatar, which both support the development of the tourism sector in the country.Since 2022, Qatar has launched the Hayya electronic visa platform, which has evolved into a comprehensive system that facilitates electronic entry permits and provides visitors with a safe and seamless experience.The platform offers five types of electronic visas and has successfully processed more than 2mn applications during the period following the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, specifically from 2023 until early September 2025, according to the QT.This reflects its vital role in facilitating visitor entry and enhancing the tourism experience in the country.According to the Visit Qatar website, the number of international visitors to Qatar reached 2.6mn in the first half of 2025.Visitors from the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries accounted for the largest share of this figure, followed by visitors from European countries.Of the total number of visitors, 57% arrived by air, 33% by land, and 9% by sea.The average hotel occupancy rate for the market in the first half of 2025 stood at around 71%, while the number of hotel nights sold reached 5.23mn.Meanwhile, data from the QT showed that the entire tourism sector contributed QR55bn to the country’s GDP in 2024, equivalent to about 8% of the total economy.This represents a 14% increase compared to 2023, a clear indicator of progress toward achieving the Qatar Tourism Strategy 2030 goal of raising the sector’s contribution to 12% of GDP.These figures reflect the magnitude of efforts invested, the diversity of events, and the development of entertainment areas in Qatar.Among the most prominent was the Qatar Games Festival, which concluded its third edition by attracting more than 130,000 visitors, exceeding attendance figures of the previous edition by 12%.Other major events included the Doha Jewellery and Watches Exhibition 2025, Ras Abrouq Desert Experience, Sealine Season, Qatar Shopping Festival 2025, Qatar International Food Festival (QIFF), and Throwback Food Festival, along with key initiatives such as Scoop by the Sea and ongoing Whale Shark Tours.Qatar’s tourism offerings also include access to iconic sites and landmarks such as the Katara Towers in Lusail City, designed in the shape of a crescent that embodies the national identity with a striking presence inspired by the crossed swords of Qatar’s national emblem.Another highlight is the Greek-Roman amphitheatre in Katara Cultural Village, a unique architectural blend of Islamic and ancient Greek elements, overlooking the sea and regularly hosting concerts and performances.Equally captivating is Mina District at the Old Doha Port, a vibrant artistic scene with colourful buildings, cobblestone streets, and a scenic promenade where cruise ships dock.Meanwhile, Souq Waqif remains a hub of authenticity, where the aroma of tradition mingles with modern vibrancy through its many shops and local dining experiences, all located near the distinctive Fanar Islamic Cultural Centre and its iconic minaret.Also noteworthy is the Qatar National Library (QNL), located in the heart of Education City, which houses millions of books alongside advanced educational facilities and programmes.The Museum of Islamic Art, designed by Pritzker Prize-winning architect I M Pei, occupies a prime location on the Doha Corniche and holds one of the world’s finest collections of Islamic art.Equally impressive is the National Museum of Qatar, designed by French architect Jean Nouvel and inspired by the desert rose, both serving as homes for world-class art exhibitions and cultural exchange.Among modern projects, Msheireb stands out as the world’s first sustainable downtown regeneration project, embodying a futuristic spirit.Also notable is the Education City Celebration Pavilion, designed by Japanese Pritzker Prize-winning architect Arata Isozaki.Qatar’s hosting of major international sports events and their wide audiences plays a pivotal role.The country has successfully staged global tournaments such as the 2015 World Men’s Handball Championship, the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, and continues to host remarkable editions of world beach games, tennis, squash, padel, and various regional and continental championships.In the second half of this year, Qatar will host several major events, including the World Triathlon Championship Finals Qatar T100 in Doha, in co-operation with the Professional Triathletes Organisation, as well as the FIFA Arab Cup Qatar 2025 and the Qatar Airways Grand Prix Formula 1.Qatar is also preparing to host the next Basketball World Cup in 2027.Furthermore, the QT and Visit Qatar are implementing major events and projects during the latter half of the current year, with the country preparing to welcome the 2025-26 cruise season.This follows the exceptional success of the previous season, which saw the arrival of 87 cruise ships, marking a 19% increase compared to the season before.The number of cruise visitors during that season exceeded 360,000, reflecting a 4% rise compared to the previous season, underscoring the ongoing efforts to diversify and develop the country’s maritime tourism sector.

Gulf Times
Qatar

World Tourism Day.. sustainable transformation enhances tourism's contribution to economy, development

In a world increasingly aware of sustainability, tourism emerges as a soft power reshaping economies and societies, expanding employment opportunities, developing infrastructure, building bridges between cultures, and promoting global understanding.Reflecting this pivotal role, the theme of World Tourism Day 2025 was chosen as "Tourism and Sustainable Transformation", a global call to harness this vital sector in promoting inclusive development and building a more environmentally and economically balanced future.The 2025 celebration of World Tourism Day emphasizes strategic planning for the development of facilities and establishments, as well as training workers in language learning and understanding the requirements of diverse audiences.It also seeks to open new horizons for visitors, strengthening a culture of travel and mobility by blending traditional entertainment with modern travel experiences and luxury. This is achieved through effective monitoring of social media and digital platforms to capture tourist decisions and the evolving trends in their choices.On this occasion, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres affirmed that tourism represents a driving force for transformation, as it strengthens connections between people and places, builds bridges across cultures, preserves traditions, restores cultural heritage, and reminds us of our shared humanity and diverse richness.Guterres highlighted that the theme "Tourism and Sustainable Transformation" calls for investment in education and skills development, particularly for women, youth, and marginalized communities, as well as supporting micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises.He also urged greater climate action by reducing emissions across the entire tourism sector, preserving biodiversity, and protecting fragile ecosystems.According to a report by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the travel and tourism sector provides one in every ten jobs and accounts for one-tenth of global GDP.The report noted that the sector boosts economic growth through consumer spending and linked production chains. The contribution of travel and tourism to the global economy reached USD 10.9 trillion in 2024, underscoring its vital importance as a global economic pillar.Travel and tourism have also become one of the world's largest sources of employment. In 2024, the sector supported a total of 357 million jobs, equivalent to one in every ten jobs worldwide.This reflects the sector's role in generating direct employment in hotels, airlines, and restaurants, as well as indirect opportunities in related industries such as agriculture, food production, transportation, and infrastructure.Domestic visitor spending, known as domestic tourism, amounted to USD 5.3 trillion in 2024, an increase of 5.4 percent compared to 2023. Meanwhile, international visitor spending, outbound tourism, rose by 11.6 percent annually to reach USD 1.9 trillion, reflecting a strong rebound in cross-border travel in recent years.Observers point out that tourism is no longer confined to leisure destinations but has expanded to include diverse types that meet varying visitor needs and preferences. These include sports and beach tourism, as well as cultural tourism focused on exploring national heritage, history, traditions, and artistic expressions.Other forms include religious tourism, in addition to medical and wellness tourism sought by those pursuing treatment, natural therapies, or relaxation to achieve fitness and recovery.Environmental tourism, which emphasizes exploring and appreciating the natural environment, also plays an important role. This wide diversity of tourism types not only caters to multiple interests but also strengthens the sector's contribution to economic and social growth.Despite the policies and efforts aimed at enhancing the tourism sector, it continues to face numerous challenges, most notably climatic, health, and security-related factors.Tourist sites, whether cultural or natural, can be severely damaged by natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and storms. Tsunamis, earthquakes, and wars are among the gravest threats to tourism activities.Armed conflicts and social unrest can also lead to significant declines in visitor numbers and tourism flows.The sector is equally vulnerable to highly contagious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, imposed strict global restrictions on land, sea, and air travel, leading to the closure of major tourist attractions such as museums, parks, and other destinations, as well as restaurants and hotels that provide leisure services.As a result, the sector contracted globally by 3.4 percent in 2020, highlighting its sensitivity to major health crises.In recent years, digital transformation and the use of electronic applications have played a significant role in facilitating tourist mobility. These include travel booking systems, flexibility in personal rescheduling, streamlined airport procedures, and improved hospitality services for tour groups. Such technology has become a central pillar in advancing tourism development and enhancing the visitor experience.n the State of Qatar, tourism receives significant attention from government institutions and the tourism authority, particularly in terms of developing and diversifying tourism facilities, overcoming climate challenges, and providing an integrated infrastructure suitable for all seasons of the year. This includes hotels, transportation networks, wellness resorts, artificial islands, and sports and entertainment facilities, thereby strengthening Qatar's position within its competitive regional environment.In this context, several entities stand out, led by Qatar Tourism and Visit Qatar, which both support the development of the tourism sector in the country.Since 2022, Qatar has launched the Hayya electronic visa platform, which has evolved into a comprehensive system that facilitates electronic entry permits and provides visitors with a safe and seamless experience.The platform offers five types of electronic visas and has successfully processed more than two million applications during the period following the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, specifically from 2023 until early September 2025, according to Qatar Tourism. This reflects its vital role in facilitating visitor entry and enhancing the tourism experience in the country.According to the Visit Qatar website, the number of international visitors to Qatar reached 2.6 million in the first half of 2025. Visitors from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries accounted for the largest share of this figure, followed by visitors from European countries. Of the total number of visitors, 57 percent arrived by air, 33 percent by land, and 9 percent by sea. The average hotel occupancy rate for the market in the first half of 2025 stood at around 71 percent, while the number of hotel nights sold reached 5.23 million.Meanwhile, data from Qatar Tourism showed that the entire tourism sector contributed QAR 55 billion to the country's GDP in 2024, equivalent to about 8 percent of the total economy. This represents a 14 percent increase compared to 2023, a clear indicator of progress toward achieving the Qatar Tourism Strategy 2030 goal of raising the sector's contribution to 12 percent of GDP.These figures reflect the magnitude of efforts invested, the diversity of events, and the development of entertainment areas in Qatar. Among the most prominent was the Qatar Games Festival, which concluded its third edition by attracting more than 130,000 visitors, exceeding attendance figures of the previous edition by 12 percent.Other major events included the Doha Jewellery and Watches Exhibition 2025, Ras Abrouq Desert Experience, Sealine Season, Qatar Shopping Festival 2025, Qatar International Food Festival, and Throwback FoodFestival, along with key initiatives such as Scoop by the Sea and ongoing Whale Shark Tours.Qatar's tourism offerings also include access to iconic sites and landmarks such as the Katara Towers in Lusail City, designed in the shape of a crescent that embodies the national identity with a striking presence inspired by the crossed swords of Qatar's national emblem.Another highlight is the Greek-Roman amphitheater in Katara Cultural Village, a unique architectural blend of Islamic and ancient Greek elements, overlooking the sea and regularly hosting concerts and performances.Equally captivating is Mina District at the Old Doha Port, a vibrant artistic scene with colorful buildings, cobblestone streets, and a scenic promenade where cruise ships dock. Meanwhile, Souq Waqif remains a hub of authenticity, where the aroma of tradition mingles with modern vibrancy through its many shops and local dining experiences, all located near the distinctive Fanar Islamic Cultural Center and its iconic minaret.Also noteworthy is Qatar National Library, located in the heart of Education City, which houses millions of books alongside advanced educational facilities and programs.The Museum of Islamic Art, designed by Pritzker Prize-winning architect I. M. Pei, occupies a prime location on the Doha Corniche and holds one of the world's finest collections of Islamic art. Equally impressive is the National Museum of Qatar, designed by French architect Jean Nouvel and inspired by the desert rose, both serving as homes for world-class art exhibitions and cultural exchange.Among modern projects, Msheireb stands out as the world's first sustainable downtown regeneration project, embodying a futuristic spirit. Also notable is the Education City Celebration Pavilion, designed by Japanese Pritzker Prize-winning architect Arata Isozaki.In this context, Qatar's hosting of major international sports events and their wide audiences plays a pivotal role. The country has successfully staged global tournaments such as the 2015 World Men's Handball Championship, the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, and continues to host remarkable editions of world beach games, tennis, squash, padel, and various regional and continental championships.In the second half of this year, Qatar will host several major events, including the World Triathlon Championship Finals Qatar T100 in Doha, in cooperation with the Professional Triathletes Organization, as well as the FIFA Arab Cup Qatar 2025 and the Qatar Airways Grand Prix Formula 1. Qatar is also preparing to host the next Basketball World Cup in 2027.Furthermore, Qatar Tourism and Visit Qatar are implementing major events and projects during the latter half of the current year, with the country preparing to welcome the 2025/2026 cruise season.This follows the exceptional success of the previous season, which saw the arrival of 87 cruise ships, marking a 19 percent increase compared to the season before.The number of cruise visitors during that season exceeded 360,000, reflecting a 4 percent rise compared to the previous season, underscoring the ongoing efforts to diversify and develop the country's maritime tourism sector.

Gulf Times
Business

Why UK inflation is so high and what it means for interest rates

While a post-pandemic burst of inflation has abated across much of the developed world, the UK is still stuck with the highest price growth among big Western economies.Granted, consumer price inflation is now well below where it was in late 2022, when it maxed out at 11.1%. That’s after the Bank of England aggressively ramped up benchmark interest rates from almost zero in late 2021 to 5.25% in 2023, sucking money out of the economy by hammering the purchasing power of borrowers.Yet inflation is back again, with CPI reaching 3.8% in July and August, its highest in more than 1-1/2 years and well above the BoE’s 2% target. The bank has responded by maintaining its key rate steady at 4%, prolonging the economic pain for households already suffering from a historic squeeze in living standards.Here’s why it’s proving so hard to get the cost of items ranging from beef to fuel back under control.What’s happened to UK inflation?Britain’s inflation rate surged when economies emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic, as people spent money they’d saved during lockdowns and companies struggled to meet the resulting demand jump amid supply chain disruptions. What’s more, energy prices shot up following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.Higher interest rates have combined with falling energy costs to bring inflation down, but UK CPI has settled above the levels seen across much of continental Europe. August inflation was 0.9% in France and 2.2% in Germany.What’s the reason for the UK’s higher inflation?The bounce back from a brief low of 1.7% in September 2024 has been driven by a rise in household utility bills, particularly energy and, more recently, food.The UK is more reliant than most other major economies on imported gas for its energy needs. UK gas prices surged in 2022 and haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. Gas determines electricity prices more than 90% of the time because, under the UK’s “marginal pricing” system, the most expensive source of energy determines the final price.Energy isn’t the whole story. Labour shortages after the pandemic drove up wage growth, and rail and public-sector unions went on strike for better pay during and after the inflation shock.Regular annual pay growth was 4.8% in the three months through July — above the 3-3.5% level that the BoE judges to be consistent with a 2% inflation target and 1-1.5% productivity growth. It is easing, however.The government has also contributed to price pressures by increasing the National Living Wage — the minimum that employers must pay staff who are at least 21 years old — by 9.7%, 9.8% and 6.7% consecutively over the past three years. In April, the government brought in a £26bn ($35bn) payroll tax, which employers have been passing on to customers by raising prices.Why does high inflation matter?At the most basic level, it increases the cost of living and erodes consumers’ spending power — especially for those whose wage growth fails to keep pace with the higher prices.High inflation punishes those on low incomes more as a larger share of their spending goes toward essential items. Food and non-alcoholic drink prices were up 5.1% in August compared with a year earlier, official figures showed. Food prices alone have increased by close to 40% since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020.Also, Britons tend to refinance their mortgages more frequently than their peers in the US and continental Europe, so many households are exposed to the higher interest rates imposed by the BoE to get inflation back under control.UK borrowing costs have been cut five times to 4% from a peak of 5.25%, but are coming down more slowly than in the euro zone, where there have been eight cuts to 2% from 4%. Working-age people often face the biggest squeeze as older generations tend to own their house outright and receive pension payouts linked to inflation.What role has Brexit played in the UK’s stubborn inflation?Many economists say the UK’s exit from the European Union has its fingerprints on the inflation troubles.Research by the London School of Economics suggested that a third of UK food price inflation from the end of 2019 to March 2023 was caused by Brexit because extra border costs added £7bn to grocery bills.BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann warned the newly erected trade barriers made the UK “unique.” The Labour government has struck an agreement with the EU to reduce border frictions for food, but the bigger goal is a broader deal for all goods.What else might be driving UK inflation?Britain’s productivity has declined in recent years, and now lags that of most other leading industrialised nations. A workforce that’s less productive produces fewer goods and services, at a higher cost per unit, and this limits the economy’s ability to grow without stoking inflation.In the second quarter of 2025, productivity growth as measured by output per worker was negative: There was a decline of 1% compared with the same quarter a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics.The “speed limit” of an economy, above which growth becomes inflationary, is determined by productivity and labour supply. High levels of migration since 2010 have propped up the UK growth rate, concealing the dismal productivity performance. A long-running dearth of business and government investment has been blamed for the paltry productivity growth since the 2008 financial crisis.Will UK inflation fall soon?Rising food prices have emerged as the latest obstacle to lower inflation. Beef, orange juice and chocolate have seen big increases. Fuel costs have also jumped, lifted by the price of oil.The BoE is alert to even temporary price spikes as households — sensitised over recent years to the damage to living standards inflation can cause — try to boost their spending power with higher pay demands.Bank officials have said they believe higher interest rates are working and inflation will be back at 2% in early 2026. But the immediate hump in price growth is making them nervous.Inflation is now one of the biggest concerns among the public, with food inflation expected to rise to 6% by the end of the year,” said Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium.The UK jobs market has shown clear signs of cooling, which may reduce upward pressure on wages. A BoE survey of employers found that wage growth will be around 3.5% by the end of 2025. US President Donald Trump’s trade war may also help the disinflation process in the UK as exporters such as China reroute shipments to lower-tariff countries like Britain.When will the BoE cut interest rates, and how far?The BoE refuses to give an official estimate for the “terminal rate,” where borrowing costs will naturally settle if the economy is operating at full capacity and inflation remains at 2%.Most economists believe it is between 3% and 3.5%. Alan Taylor, an external member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, said he believes rates will settle at around 2.75%. Compared with the decade after the financial crisis, when rates were around 0.5%, that seems high. Before 2008, however, rates were rarely lower than 4.5%.By late September, with UK inflation looking stickier than previously thought, investors had reined in their expectations for imminent interest rate cuts, and markets were pricing in little likelihood of a cut in November, and only a small chance of one in December.

Gulf Times
Opinion

China’s $19tn stock market, once called uninvestable, lures foreigners again

Foreign investors are plotting a return to China’s stock markets in a big way three years after pulling back and terming them uninvestable, encouraged by the tech opportunities on offer, and a growing demand for diversification beyond US assets.Progress in China’s adoption of artificial intelligence and its development of semiconductors and innovative drugs this year has given comfort to global investors that the Sino-US trade war and Washington’s tech export bans have not deterred innovation in the world’s second-biggest economy.The US-China tariff truce and a domestic monetary easing environment have further boosted sentiment. As a consequence, the Shanghai Composite index touched a decade high last week while Hong Kong stocks hit a four-year high.The changing sentiment of foreign investors could potentially add fuel to the market rally, which has so far been mainly driven by domestic players.Foreign early birds are already back in China, lured by this year’s bull run and as they seek diversification from crowded US assets, said Brett Barna, a former hedge fund manager who now manages two New York-based single-family offices.“China is interesting because it’s very uncorrelated to the rest of the world, at least the onshore A-share market,” Barna said, adding he plans to set up an investment platform that would allow US and European capital to access China’s capital markets.Data on fund launches and flows illustrates the growing enthusiasm for a $19tn Chinese stock market, including Hong Kong.August marked the biggest monthly buying of China stocks by global hedge funds in six months, according to a report by Morgan Stanley, which did not detail numbers.Morningstar data showed the number of emerging market ex-China equity fund new launches slid to eight in 2025 versus 21 in 2024 and 16 in 2023. That meant demand for emerging market investments that did not include China had cooled substantially this year.“A year ago, people wanted to exclude China from indices. Now, China is seen as a standalone asset class (they cannot ignore),” said Zheng Yuchen, chief investment officer of the China fund unit of Allianz Global Investors.The anecdotal evidence is also piling up.Polar Capital, a London-based $20bn asset manager, pivoted to a positive stance on China in late 2024 from underweight and has further increased the China allocation to over 30% from the low 20% range within its emerging market portfolio this year, said its fund manager Jerry Wu.The firm’s annual conference in February this year attracted a full house of 55 clients to the China session, more than double the attendance in 2023, he said.There is “a revaluation of Chinese innovative assets” triggered by DeepSeek’s breakthrough, said Wu, referring to the creator of the highly cost-efficient AI model that rivals ChatGPT. He said momentum has picked up across the board, from AI to biotech and robotics.Benjamin Low, senior investment director at investment firm Cambridge Associates, said his team has received some 30 client inquiries about searching for China funds this year, in a sharp contrast to the trough in 2023 when there were very limited queries about China-focused mandates.Many non-Asia-based allocators are planning trips to China and Hong Kong later this year to explore investment opportunities, with some for the first time since Covid, he said.To be sure, some of China’s long-standing problems are persisting. Its broad economy remains mired in weakness, as indicated by August factory output, retail sales data and some other indicators.Foreign direct investment in the first five months of 2025 slumped 13.2% from the year-earlier period, forcing China to unveil new measures in July to reverse the decline.The fragile economy is one of the main reasons that, while early movers are coming in, it has not yet translated into meaningful long-term capital inflows.CLSA chief equity strategist Alexander Redman said the deflationary pressure in the economy is preventing him from overweighting the entire market.And Wu of Polar Capital said the AI boom has to benefit the broader economy to sustain the rally beyond 2025.Foreign investors are now in a “rerating” phase, focusing on China’s long-term competitiveness, said Cheng Yu, a portfolio manager at AllianzGI’s China fund unit.“Foreign capital is standing at the door and watching. They haven’t stepped in yet — but are at least thinking about coming back.”