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Apple Inc’s iPhone exports from India jumped by a third in the six months through September, underscoring its push to expand manufacturing in the country and reduce dependence on China.The US company exported nearly $6bn of India-made iPhones, an increase of a third in value terms from a year earlier, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be named as the information is private. That puts annual exports on track to surpass the about $10bn of fiscal 2024.Apple is expanding its manufacturing network in India at a rapid clip, taking advantage of local subsidies, a skilled workforce and advances in the country’s technological capabilities. India is a crucial part of the company’s effort to lessen its reliance on China, where risks have grown along with Beijing’s tensions with the US.Three of Apple’s suppliers — Taiwan’s Foxconn Technology Group and Pegatron Corp, and homegrown Tata Electronics — assemble iPhones in southern India. Foxconn’s local unit, based on the outskirts of Chennai, is the top supplier in India and accounts for half of the country’s iPhone exports.Salt-to-software conglomerate Tata Group’s electronics manufacturing arm exported about $1.7bn in iPhones from its factory in Karnataka state from April to September, the people said. Tata acquired this unit from Wistron Corp last year, becoming the first Indian assembler of Apple’s bestselling product.The dollar figure refers to the devices’ estimated factory gate value, not the retail price. Representatives for Apple declined to comment. Pegatron also declined to comment, while Foxconn and Tata spokespersons didn’t respond to requests for comment.IPhones account for the bulk of India’s smartphone exports and helped the product category become the top export to the US at $2.88bn in the first five months of this fiscal year, according to federal trade ministry data. Five years ago, before Apple expanded manufacturing in India, the country’s annual smartphone exports to the US were a meagre $5.2mn.Still, Apple accounts for just under 7% of India’s smartphone market, which is dominated by Chinese brands such as Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo. And while still a small market for iPhones globally, Apple is making big bets.The subsidies by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration helped Apple assemble its pricey iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models, with better cameras and titanium bodies, in India this year. It’s also seeking to open new retail stores, including in the southern tech hub of Bangalore and western city of Pune.Last year, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook launched Apple’s first shops in the financial hub of Mumbai and capital New Delhi.The grand openings, the marketing blitz around the new stores, an aggressive online sales push as well as a rapidly growing middle class that aspires to own Apple products boosted its annual India revenue to a record of $8bn in the year through March.India sales could reach $33bn by 2030, we calculate, fuelled primarily by rising middle-class purchasing power and a greater use of payment plans, say Anurag Rana and Andrew Girard, analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence.Apple’s rising star in India contrasts with its flagging fortunes in China, whose economy has stuttered following harsh Covid-19 lockdowns and a property crisis. To be sure, Apple relies on China for a bulk of its manufacturing and sales, and India’s unlikely to become its top market anytime soon.Apple assembled $14bn of iPhones in India in the fiscal year through March 2024, doubling production and accelerating its drive to diversify beyond China. Of that, it exported roughly $10bn worth of iPhones.

Progress on poverty reduction has slowed almost to a standstill in recent years. With nearly 700mn people still living on less than $2.15 per day, the world is far from the goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030. At the current pace, it will take at least three decades to reach this target, and more than a century to lift everyone above the poverty line of $6.85 per day used for upper-middle-income countries. Today, 44% of the global population falls below this threshold.Tepid economic growth, the Covid-19 pandemic, ongoing conflicts, and the escalating climate crisis have disrupted – and even reversed – a quarter-century of extraordinary progress, during which the share of the world’s population living in extreme poverty plunged from around one-third to one-tenth. While high-income countries have largely recovered from these setbacks, extreme poverty in the poorest countries is still higher than in 2019, and their growth is expected to be weaker than in the decade before the pandemic. And as global warming accelerates, nearly one in five people will likely experience an extreme weather event from which they will struggle to recover, exacerbating poverty.According to the World Bank’s new Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report, altering this trajectory requires recognising that poverty, shared prosperity, and climate risks are interconnected. In response, countries must foster faster and more inclusive growth while also shielding people from the effects of climate change.Addressing inequality can play an important role in achieving these interconnected goals. In the world’s most unequal countries, economic growth leads to a smaller reduction in poverty. If every country experienced annual per capita income growth of 2%, it would take another 60 years to eliminate extreme poverty. But if the Gini index – a measure of income inequality – in every country were to decrease by 2% annually, that target would be reached in 20 years.High levels of inequality also prevent the less well-off from climbing the socioeconomic ladder, depriving them of opportunities to improve their lives. Delivering better-functioning labour markets, investing in education and health, and strengthening social safety nets would enable poor people to benefit from economic growth.Each country’s path forward should be tailored to its specific circumstances in order to deliver the best possible outcomes across these dimensions while managing tradeoffs. For low-income countries supported by the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), that means promoting faster and more inclusive growth and increasing investment in public services and infrastructure to improve access to education and create jobs. Because these countries are home to 70% of all people living in extreme poverty and produce minimal greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, their anti-poverty efforts do not come at a high environmental cost.The focus in lower-middle-income countries should be on delivering sustained growth and shared prosperity, and improving the efficiency of policies to boost income, build climate resilience, and keep GHG emissions in check. Scaling up investment in climate mitigation is especially important because the emissions of many middle-income countries are projected to rise over the coming decades. Such investments could also lead to better health outcomes – for example, by reducing air pollution.Lastly, upper-middle-income and high-income countries, which account for four-fifths of global carbon dioxide emissions, must rapidly phase out their dependence on fossil fuels and lead the green transition. Although GHG emissions are projected to decline under current policies, the pace is not nearly fast enough to limit global warming.Ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity on a liveable planet requires bold policy choices, co-ordinated global action, and a significant increase in financing for sustainable development, which would allow low-income countries to invest in improving the lives and livelihoods of their people.Today, the world has a historic opportunity to overcome the injustices and mitigate the dangers of entrenched poverty, systemic inequality, and climate change. We must not squander this chance to make meaningful, lasting progress toward broad-based prosperity. – Project Syndicate

Qatar National Bank (QNB) said that China's GDP growth forecast could be revised and increased to 5.5 percent, aligning it with current growth potentials. It attributed that to two main factors: a firmer commitment from the Chinese government to achieve stronger growth rates and more monetary policy room for rate cuts.In its weekly commentary, QNB said, "After the re-opening from the late wave of Covid pandemic in China two years ago, there was significant hope for another period of strong Chinese driven global growth. However, following an initial recovery, expectations faded as GDP prints came consistently below the countrys long-term average of 5.6 percent. Part of the reason for a lacklustre performance in recent quarters has been the lack of major fiscal stimulus and the lack of clarity in terms of overall policy direction."Last month, Chinese economic authorities decided to take more decisive action to support growth. A new battery of policy stimulus measures were launched. This included the re-capitalization of state banks, cuts in interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, more fiscal spending, and support for both real estate and capital markets."The announcement quickly reignited the risk-taking "animal spirits" of investors, speculators and entrepreneurs. This led Chinese asset prices to surge significantly, with equity prices up 38 percent in a matter of three weeks, before softening and stabilizing. Importantly, as concerns emerged about whether the announcement would be enough to spur stronger growth, there was guidance that the government is willing to deploy more measures should it be needed for growth or financial stability."Despite the initial reaction from markets, analysts are still questioning to what extent the Chinese government is committed to large, sustained supportive interventions, and whether this would have a strong spill over on consumer sentiment and real activity. At the time of writing, analyst projections are still modest and do not reflect a material change in growth expectations. This is well captured by the Bloomberg consensus, a tool that tracks forecasts from economists, think tanks and research houses, presenting a range of projections as well as the median point of market expectations for growth in a given country. The Bloomberg consensus forecasts point to tepid 4.8 percent and 4.5 percent Chinese growth in 2024 and 2025."There is nonetheless scope for significant upward revisions in Chinese growth expectations to 5.5 percent, more aligned with GDP potential. Two main factors sustain our position."The bank explained, "First, the new round of stimulus suggests that policymakers are concerned about growth and committed to support it. Moreover, it also suggests that the announced GDP target of 5 percent is still a key KPI that should be achieved. In the recent past, there were concerns that the main economic KPIs for the Chinese government were associated with the technological roadmap, i.e., raising in the value chain of strategic sectors like space, AI, and quantum communications and computing. As deploying the "bazooka" or enacting "massive stimulus" is no longer off-limits and indeed needed for the desired growth target achievement, we expect even further easing measures in the near future, creating a solid footing to the economic expansion."Second, the start of a "global easing cycle" in which major central banks cut policy rates is also favourable for China. This enables more aggressive economic policy actions by Chinese authorities, particularly the PBoC. As the US Fed cuts rates further, the PBoC will have more policy room to ease without creating additional incentives for capital outflows from China. In recent years, the US-China interest rate differential changed dramatically in favour of the US, with higher US yields attracting capital inflows from the rest of the world, including China. This created pressure in the renminbi, which depreciated by 13 percent since its recent peak in February 2022. A US Fed easing cycle should unlock more monetary stimulus from the PBoC, providing a tailwind for the Chinese economy. Lower policy rates allows for more liquidity and credit growth, favouring the return of private and provincial investments. This should also provide relief for indebted entities and provide a boost to consumer sentiment."QNB concluded, "All in all, more positive market sentiment, a firmer commitment from the Chinese government for stronger growth, and more monetary policy room for rate cuts should favour a faster GDP expansion of 5.5 percent in 2025."

In both the United Kingdom and the US, political parties on the left and the right are competing to show voters that they are on the side of working people. The question is whether prevailing approaches to protecting workers – which focus on a combination of industrial policy and restrictions on trade, investment, and immigration – are actually in workers’ interest.Protecting workers has become practically synonymous with protectionism. In recent years, voters in many countries, concerned about their economic well-being, have turned against free trade, immigration, and inward foreign direct investment – and have rejected the leaders and parties who long promoted such policies.Europe is a case in point. After the 2007-08 global financial crisis plunged even middle-class households into economic insecurity, voters began to look beyond mainstream political parties in search of greater support and protection, and were often attracted by those blaming immigration for their struggles. The Covid-19 pandemic, and the cost-of-living crisis that followed, reinforced this trend, and recent elections in Austria, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands saw surging support for anti-immigration parties.In the US, new political parties did not emerge, but a new kind of leader did. Donald Trump won the US presidency in 2016 partly by blaming free trade (particularly with China) for decimating jobs and investment in America’s Rust Belt. While criticising free markets and capitalism used to be the preserve of the left, even The American Conservative now runs articles pillorying trade, immigration, and the free movement of capital for the ravages of deindustrialisation.One answer to such “carnage” is tariffs, which Trump eagerly introduced while in office. But Joe Biden – who defeated Trump in the 2020 election – maintained and even built upon those tariffs. Earlier this year, Biden imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric cars – a very high rate, though it affects a very small percentage of US imports from China. Trump promises that, if re-elected, he will implement 60-100% tariffs on all Chinese imports.The protectionist message is clearly one that workers want to hear. But tariffs are unlikely to work. For starters, they lead to retaliation and distrust among trading partners, as we saw in 2018, when Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium from Canada, Europe, and Mexico. They thus reduce a country’s access to overseas markets, while driving up prices. Because they disrupt supply chains providing vital components for domestic manufacturing, they might also lead to employment losses.Those losses would not be offset by the “reshored” jobs the protectionists promise, as previously offshored (low-wage) jobs are increasingly filled by machines, not workers. This is already happening in China, where “smart manufacturing” is carried out in “dark factories” run entirely by robots. Protecting manufacturing jobs is thus no more a solution to China’s high youth unemployment rates than reshoring such jobs is a realistic means of revitalizing the Rust Belt.But, as US president Franklin D Roosevelt’s administration showed in the 1930s, there is a better way to protect workers: domestic labour legislation that supports unionisation. Beyond ensuring a decent standard of living for workers, such legislation in the US and the UK gave greater political voice to working people, enabling them to rise through the labour movement into politics.That changed when traditional labour parties came to be dominated by urban liberal professionals, rather than representatives of the working class. For example, the proportion of working-class members of Parliament representing the UK’s Labour Party plummeted from nearly 30% in 1987 to only 10% in 2010.Fortunately, policymakers in the UK and the US increasingly seem to recognise the role of domestic labour legislation in protecting workers. In the UK, the new Labour government has put forward an Employment Rights Bill, which would extend workers’ rights in areas like sick pay, flexible schedules, and protection against unfair dismissal. The bill paves the way for reviving trade unions, removing restrictions on workers’ right to strike, addressing the gender pay gap, and strengthening protections against sexual harassment in the workplace. Predictably, employer reactions have been mixed, and the government will now engage in extensive consultations as it works to turn the bill into legislation.In the US, the Biden administration sought to include incentives for supporting unionisation in the Build Back Better Act, which aimed to create “millions of good-paying jobs.” But industry lobbyists pressed the US Congress to eliminate the bill’s proposed incentives for manufacturers to base their assembly plants in the US and to use unionised labour. Ultimately, the Act’s passage came down to one vote – that of Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, who insisted that the support for unionised labour be removed.Trade policy can also be used to protect labour – if we look beyond tariffs. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which the Trump administration negotiated as a successor to NAFTA in 2018, has the strongest and farthest-reaching labour provisions of any US free-trade agreement. Beyond placing labour obligations at the core of the agreement, and making them fully enforceable, the USMCA provides that countries can help workers adapt through domestic programs, such as the US Trade Adjustment Assistance programmes that have been helping workers transition away from jobs lost to import competition since 1962. The USMCA proves that worker protections are compatible with international competitiveness.Political support for protectionist trade policies is easy to explain. A growing share of working people in industrialised democracies feel – and, in fact, are – less represented and less protected than previous generations, and both Chinese factories and immigrant workers are easy targets. So, when politicians acknowledge these voters’ frustration and promise to improve their lives with tariffs and immigration controls, they are easily convinced. Ultimately, however, this approach will do little for workers – or for the political leaders who embrace it. – Project SyndicateNgaire Woods is Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford.

Global long-term prosperity and the well-being of future generations are in jeopardy, as biodiversity loss and the collapse of critical ecosystems not only threaten the environment, but also raise risks for the economy, public health, national security, and world stability. At the 2024 United Nations Biodiversity Conference, currently taking place in Cali, Colombia, leaders must finally meet this crisis with the level of political commitment and funding that it warrants.Biodiversity is often understood in terms of the variety of life on Earth – the number of species of plants, animals, and microorganisms. Its significance cannot be overstated. Biodiversity underpins the ecosystem services that sustain human life, such as water purification, flood control, and climate regulation. The rapid decline of species and ecosystems – 1mn plant and animal species are on the brink of extinction – thus amounts to an existential threat.If left unaddressed, biodiversity loss will accelerate climate change and amplify its consequences, contributing to more natural disasters and market shocks. It will also leave the agricultural systems increasingly vulnerable to hazards – from pests and pathogens to extreme weather – and deplete the ocean of critical fish stocks. This will affect both the price and availability of food, causing scarcity in the Global South and compounding insecurity in already-fragile societies.These trends will leave a growing number of people with little choice but to flee their homes in search of better living conditions.As the planet’s total habitable area shrinks, and competition for resources grows, conflict will become all but inevitable.Biodiversity loss also threatens public health, which is inextricably linked to the ecosystems that surround us. Many diseases can be tied directly to changes in biodiversity. As the destruction of habitats forces wildlife into closer contact with human populations, the risk of zoonotic diseases like Covid-19 rises.To prevent such a future, all countries must recognise biodiversity loss as a security issue. This means integrating biodiversity considerations into defence and foreign policymaking. And it means financing the response – including investments in practices that protect ecosystems, and ambitious measures to address the root causes of biodiversity loss, such as habitat destruction and climate change – as robustly as they would for any other security crisis.The consequences of biodiversity loss know no borders. Countries must work together to protect critical habitats, enforce environmental regulations, and promote sustainable development practices.As such, multilateral groups, such as the High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People, should continue to take the lead in forging international agreements and action plans that establish biodiversity conservation as a cornerstone of global security. Policymakers must continue to focus on working to meet the biodiversity framework’s “30x30” target, by encouraging and facilitating government action to protect 30% of the planet’s land and ocean by 2030. Furthermore, members from the Global North should increase financial support for countries in the Global South to implement necessary designations, specifically by meeting their commitment to deliver at least $20bn of nature finance annually by 2025.Finally, governments must engage and inform the public. Education and awareness campaigns that explain the importance of protecting biodiversity can empower individuals and communities to advocate for policies that protect natural resources, thereby helping to generate the necessary political will.If an enemy state threatened the economy, public health, national security, and global stability, we would throw everything we had at it to defend ourselves. The biodiversity crisis is no different.

About two years ago, in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s economy hit a roadblock. As all sectors underwent deleveraging, economic growth slowed, household savings rates increased, and businesses scaled back their investments and accumulated savings. Many now wonder whether consumers and companies are stuck in a self-reinforcing cycle of declining spending and falling prices, which would have the pernicious effect of increasing the real value of debt.For a long time, the government did not move forcefully to counter these trends. On the contrary, as falling property prices and stalling land sales, together with slower growth, squeezed local governments’ budgets, the central government maintained a prudent fiscal stance. Now, China is teetering on the edge of a deflationary trap: the consumer price index has been hovering near zero for 16 months, and the producer price index has been in negative territory for 24 months.Japan remained ensnared in such a trap for three decades. Economic growth, inflation, and interest rates stagnated around zero, resulting in a long-term relative decline in GDP per capita, from a peak of 150% of the level in the US in 1995 to just 41% of the US level in 2023. With China potentially on a similar trajectory – in 2021-23, its GDP fell from 76% of the US level to 67%, and today, its GDP per capita is only 15% of the US level – how to avoid Japan’s fate has become an urgent question.Answering it requires, first, changing the way we think about money. The conventional macroeconomic wisdom is that central banks and governments manage price and liquidity pressures through interest rates and fiscal policy. But if we recognise that money is, ultimately, a country’s equity capital, money issuance can – and should – be thought of in similar terms to equity issuance. And as equity issuers, central banks can play an important role in stabilising financial markets, recapitalising banks, and avoiding a liquidity trap.Just as a company might issue equity to recapitalise or fund productive capital expenditures, a central bank can issue money to retire debt and boost financing of investment, thereby reducing leverage across the economy and countering deflationary forces. (Conversely, when an economy is overheating, and inflation is rising, policymakers can shrink the monetary base, much as corporations repurchase stock to increase share value.)Moreover, if banks are lending less because they have accumulated too many non-performing loans (NPLs), the central bank can recapitalise them through debt-equity swaps, with banks exchanging their liabilities (debt) for money (equity) from the central bank. At the same time, central banks can support an asset-relief programme involving the removal of NPLs from banks’ balance sheets.This way of thinking about money should inform China’s effort to fight deflation. Fortunately, the government’s newly announced stimulus package suggests that this may well be happening. Some of its features are conventional. For example, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has lowered its key policy rate – the seven-day reverse repo rate – 20 basis points, from 1.7% to 1.5%. This will drive the medium-term lending-facility rate down by about 30 basis points. The loan-market quotation rate and the deposit rate will probably also be lowered, most likely by 20-25 basis points.Moreover, the PBoC is encouraging commercial banks to lower their mortgage interest rates to align more closely with the rate for newly issued loans – an average reduction of about 0.5 percentage points. The stimulus also includes a 0.5-percentage-point reduction in financial institutions’ mandatory reserve ratio, which frees up about CN¥1 trillion ($140bn) in long-term liquidity.But China’s stimulus programme also includes two new PBoC tools, designed to support the capital market. The first is a swap facility – initially valued at CN¥500bn, though it will probably be expanded – to make it easier for securities firms, fund companies, and insurers to finance stock purchases.The second is the provision of up to CN¥300bn (to start) in cheap loans to commercial banks, to be used to help other entities increase their share purchases and buybacks. With these policies, the PBoC is effectively issuing equity to stabilise prices and asset values, thereby reducing economy-wide leverage.Capital markets responded positively to the stimulus announcement, with China’s A-share market index rising by more than 20% in less than a week. But more must be done to restore long-term investor confidence. While the list of necessary policies is long, three priorities stand out.First, China’s fiscal authorities should increase spending, in order to support economic growth, which is vital to address property-sector and local-government debts. Their current stance, which has had the central government’s budget deficit running only slightly above 3% of GDP for the last four years, is too prudent.Second, the government should do more to support the private sector, which has contributed 60% of GDP, 70% of innovations, and 80% of employment to the Chinese economy roughly over the past five years. Specifically, it should fast-track its draft private-economy promotion law, aimed at fostering private-sector development, and actively promote investment with financial support, tax incentives, and expanded market access.Finally, policymakers should support job creation for recent college graduates, migrant workers, and other groups exposed to rising unemployment. By using equity issuance productively to mobilise an idle workforce with high human capital, China could increase both economic activity and consumption.With its latest stimulus plan, China’s government is on the right track. But to escape deflation, it must go further. – Project Syndicatel Patrick Bolton, professor of finance at Imperial College London, is senior adviser to the Lazard Climate Center and a co-author (with Haizhou Huang) of Money Capital: New Monetary Principles for a More Prosperous Society (Princeton University Press, 2024).l Haizhou Huang, special-term professor of finance at the Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance and the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, is an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China and a co-author (with Patrick Bolton) of Money Capital: New Monetary Principles for a More Prosperous Society (Princeton University Press, 2024).

The entrepreneurial spirit is alive and flourishing in Qatar. This does not guarantee the growth of a non-oil and gas export-earning sector and economic diversification. Recent announcements confirm the government’s support for the private sector: Are there further reforms that could help?One of the heartening findings of a recent report into startups and other small businesses in Qatar has been a high level of entrepreneurialism among the population, which has continued to rise after the one-off opportunities of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The report was produced by the Global Entrepreneurial Monitor (GEM), in collaboration with Qatar Development Bank.Total Early-stage Activity in setting up businesses, known as the TEA rate, is 15.4% among men and 13.1% in women. While the TEA rate fell from 17.2% to 10.7% between 2020 and 2022, probably attributable to the Covid-19 outbreak, it rose to 14.3%, post-World Cup, in 2023. The proportion of those running an established business also nudged upwards, from 3.9% to 4.4% in 2022-23.Overall, setting up your own business is viewed positively, as an aspirational career choice. On this measure, Qatar ranks second against a group of Middle East and North African countries.Many businesses are set up with informal loans, from friends and family. As with all start-ups, a proportion doesn’t succeed. It is likely that the report understates the level of failure – not through any fault of the authors, but because some activity is “off-grid”, and data is limited. In Qatar, a high proportion of entrepreneurs have set up a business while continuing to work full-time in a relatively well-paid, secure salaried post in the public sector. Their business loans are guaranteed against their salary, not only the business itself. If the business fails, the individual will be repaying the debt out of salary for many years.It is part of Qatar’s economic strategy to encourage entrepreneurialism and economic diversification, and this report produces encouraging findings. There is much scope for further policy reform. An economy will not be substantially diversified if it consists primarily of a small number of very large export-earning oil and gas firms alongside thousands of micro businesses in the services sector. There needs to be nurturing of businesses with potential to scale and grow internationally, for example in technology, information services and manufacturing.There is not a well-developed bankruptcy law in Qatar as one might find in the US or western Europe, and this reform would help, alongside sensible policy measures to prevent high borrowings from inexperienced start-up founders with little chance of success.The recent announcement to write off loans made to private sector companies under the National Response Guarantee Program (NRGP) during Covid-19 outbreak will have an impact. It is an understandable move, releasing resources for affected companies and drawing a line under the exceptional measures brought about by the pandemic. The move may, however, be perceived as unfair by those businesses that did repay the loans, or those who took out commercial loans. Thus, Qatar Development Bank also announced an initiative to arrange zero-interest short-term loans to companies that had settled their loans under the NRGP.To encourage private sector development, rather than a system of loans made against employees’ earnings from their day job, or soft loans that may ultimately be written off, it might be better for Qatar Development Bank or a related Fund to invest more fully in entrepreneurial endeavours by becoming an equity investor in enterprises with potential to scale, offering governance and training support to the business founders, and an experienced board director appointed by the Fund. If the directors of the company are full-time, and fully invested, it is likely that the firm has a better chance of success. Or, fresh loans could be made contingent on the owners undergoing training on governance and finance.Zero interest-rate loans will benefit some companies, but it would not be healthy to be inadvertently facilitating companies becoming dependent on cheap financing, rather than seeking to scale through organic growth, efficiency and profitable business model. Another option for companies that are struggling financially, but which have potential to scale, is partial debt forgiveness, rather than writing off the whole loan.There also needs to be incentives for expatriate individuals to set up a company and stay in Qatar.Overall, though, the report strikes a positive note about commercial ambition acumen in Qatar, and the government’s initiatives underline its commitment to continuing private sector development.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

HE the Qatari Military Attache to Italy Major General (Navy) Hilal Ali Al Mohannadi said that the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani represents the culmination of a long-standing relationship and cooperation between the two countries, particularly in the military field.In an interview with Qatar News Agency (QNA), HE Al Mohannadi said that His Highness the Amir's visit to Italy also serves as an opportunity to support and enhance strategic cooperation between the State of Qatar and the Italian Republic in the military sector, as they share a historic collaboration in this area that began in the 1980s and has been significantly strengthened through the agreement signed between the ministries of defense in 2016.He described the military relations between Qatar and Italy as part of a broader strategic partnership that both countries are working to enhance in the fields of security and defense.HE Al Mohannadi noted that the first military cooperation between the two countries began in the early 1980s, with the Qatari naval forces acquiring ships equipped with guns and ammunition manufactured in Italy, which subsequently led to significant developments in military collaboration between the two sides.He added that the agreement signed between the ministries of defense of Qatar and Italy has opened the door wide for close and significant cooperation between the two countries in areas such as the acquisition of combat aircraft, helicopters, naval vessels, and advanced equipment like radar systems, in addition to training and joint exercises, particularly in training pilots and military personnel in the naval forces, as well as academic military studies.He pointed out that the military cooperation agreement between the two countries has borne fruit, with the Qatari armed forces receiving all seven naval vessels manufactured in Italy, with only one remaining to be delivered. Additionally, 80 percent of the order for helicopters from Italy, amounting to 28 helicopters, has been fulfilled.Regarding training, he explained that since 2017, 660 personnel from the naval forces have trained in Italy, while 260 individuals have trained in helicopter operations, and 32 pilots have participated in advanced aircraft training programs. Furthermore, 40 personnel have trained in air defense (radar systems), and 41 individuals have taken part in special forces training, along with the training of liaison officers from the ground forces and the Internal Security Force (Lekhwiya).He noted that since 2017, 154 courses have been organized in Italy, benefiting 952 individuals, which brings the total number of those who benefited from these courses in Italy to 1,333. Additionally, since 2021, eight joint exercises have been conducted, involving 316 individuals, along with over 400 mutual visits by military delegations between the two countries since 2017.HE Al Mohannadi noted that the Military Attache office in Italy was established in 2017, following the signing of an agreement for the construction of naval vessels for Qatar with the Italian government in June 2016, in partnership with the Italian company Fincantieri, pointing out that the decision to appoint a Military Attache in Italy was to oversee two roles: defense attache and monitoring projects signed with the Italian government in the military field.He explained that Italy is an important strategic partner in the military sector, as its military industry has seen significant development and possesses over 150 years of extensive experience in manufacturing military equipment, particularly naval equipment, and countries around the world benefit from these advanced Italian military industries.His Excellency highlighted that there are numerous agreements linking Italy and Qatar in the military field, including agreements with the Qatar Armed Forces, the Amiri Guard, the Ministry of Interior, and the Internal Security Force (Lekhwiya), as well as cooperation in academic military studies, with 240 individuals currently studying in fields related to naval and aviation.He affirmed that military cooperation with Italy will continue and expand further, especially as the signed agreement on military projects spans thirty years and is valued at over EUR 9 billion.The Qatari Military Attache emphasised that the military collaboration between the two countries is strategic, with both sides continuously seeking to explore new opportunities and partnerships that will benefit both nations.He noted that the distinguished bilateral relations between the two countries have significantly facilitated military cooperation, pointing out that Italy is a friendly and important country in the region, and interactions between the two sides are characterized by credibility and respect.HE Al Mohannadi concluded his interview with QNA by noting that Italy has supported Qatar and stood by it in various issues and challenges, and in turn, Qatar supported Italy, particularly during the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, by providing two field hospitals, each with a capacity of 1,000 beds and the necessary medical equipment, along with other contributions from Qatar in the transport of Italian equipment and forces from Afghanistan.

The relations between the State of Qatar and the Italian Republic have always been distinguished by their depth and strength, considering the close strategic cooperation between the two countries in various economic sectors, infrastructure projects, energy, and others. Over the past decades, the State of Qatar has built strong diplomatic relations with many countries around the globe, based on Doha's belief in its strategic location in the Arabian Gulf and the region and its pivotal role regionally and internationally. The Italian Republic is one of the most prominent European countries that builds strategic bridges and close ties with Qatar in various fields. As an extension of these strategic bridges, His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani starts on Sunday a state visit to the Italian Republic, during which His Highness will meet with the President of the Italian Republic Sergio Mattarella and the Prime Minister of the Italian Republic Giorgia Meloni, and discuss prospects for developing bilateral relations and ways to enhance them, within the framework of distinguished partnership and fruitful cooperation in the fields of energy, economy, education, health and culture. The visit is expected to contribute to developing cooperation relations between the two friendly countries, moving them towards broader and more advanced horizons. The visit is also expected to contribute to establishing an advanced stage of economic cooperation, such as increasing the volume of trade and exhange as well as important vital sectors between the two countries, which share mutual interests in various fields, and at various levels, including political, economic and military; interests that are based primarily on mutual respect and trust. The Qatari-Italian relations have witnessed continuous mutual visits at the highest levels, with the aim of strengthening and developing these relations. One of the most prominent visits of which areHis Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani's state visit to Italy in November 2018 and his official visit in January 2016. Another prominent visit is HE President of the Italian Republic Sergio Mattarella's state visit to Doha in January 2020. The Qatari-Italian relations were established in 1992, when the two countries agreed to exchange the opening of their embassies. Since then, the two countries have witnessed rapid and solid development in all fields, especially in the economic and trade sectors. At a turning point in the close diplomatic relations between the State of Qatar and the Italian Republic on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Qatari-Italian diplomatic relations, the first round of strategic dialogue between the two countries was held in Rome in February 2022, co-chaired by HE Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani and the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Italian Republic Luigi Di Maio. The Qatari-Italian meetings continued with the visit ofHis Highness the Amir to Rome in February 2023, during which His Highness held official talks with the President of the Italian Republic Sergio Mattarella, that pertained strong bilateral relations between the two countries and ways to support and develop them in various fields. In September 2023, the Prime Minister of the Italian Republic Giorgia Meloni visited Doha and met withHis Highness the Amir, during which His Highness held an official talks session with Meloni that pertained bilateral relations between the two countries and ways to enhance them in various fields, especially in the economic, investment, energy and defense fields. During the session, His Highness the Amir affirmed the State of Qatar's keenness to advance the distinguished relations between the two countries to broader horizons, and develop bilateral cooperation in various fields in a way that benefits the two countries and the two friendly peoples. For her part, the Italian Prime Minister expressed her aspiration to consolidate the growing relations between the two countries, and renewed her country's thanks to the State of Qatar for its medical assistance during the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and its efforts to facilitate the evacuation of Italian citizens from Afghanistan. HE Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs considered the strategic dialogue an opportunity to discuss bilateral relations between the two countries, especially in matters related to defense, security and economy. He also affirmed that the inter-trade has increased more than three-fold over the past ten years, noting that trade exchange grew by 56 percent during the first ten months of 2022, in addition to the growing interest of Italian companies in the Qatari market. In a related context, the Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs extended thanks to the State of Qatar for evacuating over a thousand Italian citizens during the events of 2021 in Kabul, expressing his gratitude for Qatar for agreeing to move the Italian Embassy from Afghanistan to Doha. The Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs also announced the appointment of an Italian cultural attache in Doha. This was followed by rounds of dialogue, activities and exchange of visits. On May 16, 2024, Qatar Chamber (QC) hosted the "Qatar-Italy Roundtable Business Meeting," which was organized by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry at the QC headquarters with the attendance of the Deputy Minister of Enterprises and Made in Italy Valentino Valentini and HE Chairman of QC Sheikh Khalifa bin Jassim Al-Thani. During the meeting, Valentini invited Qatari businesspersons to invest in Italy, commending the significant development Qatar is witnessing while indicating that Doha has become a hub for business and investment. He also noted that the Italian delegation comprised numerous leading Italian firms in various sectors and investment-related entities to discuss ways to establish trade and economic cooperation relations between the two countries, explaining that his country has carried out many legislative reforms to facilitate the business environment, as part of its efforts to become a business hub. For his part, HE Chairman of QC Sheikh Khalifa bin Jassim Al-Thani said that Italy is considered an important and promising trade and economic partner for the State of Qatar. He highlighted the robust and rapidly growing relations between Qatar and Italy, pointing out that their bilateral trade witnessed a remarkable growth of 80 percent in 2023, reaching QAR 20 billion, compared to QAR 11.1 billion in 2018. Qatar's investment in the Adriatic Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminal off the Italian coastal city of Rovigo, which opened in October 2009, is one of the most important outcomes of the distinguished relations between the two countries. The LNG terminal receives Qatari liquefied gas at a rate of 8 billion cubic meters annually, which is equivalent to 10 percent of Italy's needs. The Qatari-Italian relations are linked by a set of agreements and memoranda of understanding covering cooperation in the economic, political, diplomatic, defense, investment, scientific, educational, health and cultural sectors, as well as many others. The two countries also established a joint Qatari-Italian businesspersons council to enhance economic relations and explore areas of bilateral cooperation. The Italian Republic is the State of Qatar's eighth largest trading partner, its seventh supplier, and one of the most important destinations for Qatari investments that have entered into various sectors and economic activities there. Qatari investments in Italy are concentraded in the real estate and hotel sector, as well as the developement of some residential areas, in addition to investments by Qatar Airways. Italy has an area of 300,000 square kilometers and a population of more than 60 million. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Italy was the seventh largest economy in the world and the fourth largest economy in Europe in 2008. It is a member of the Group of Eight, the European Union, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

International trade has displayed extraordinary volatility in recent years, QNB said in an economic commentary.After the sharp collapse in trade volumes in 2020 resulting from the Covid-pandemic, a strong rebound took place in 2021 as the pandemic gradually receded and the global economy began to progressively reopen.Afterwards, a challenging environment emerged amid rising interest rates, high inflation, and geopolitical instability. These negative conditions resulted in a sharp deceleration of trade activity in 2022, which was even more disappointing in 2023, displaying a highly unusual contraction, QNB noted.During the last 40 years, a contraction in real trade volumes had only been recorded in 2009 as an aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and in 2020 with the dramatic disruptions caused by the Covid-pandemic.While some of the headwinds remain relevant today, including a challenging geopolitical environment fraught with protectionism and logistical disruptions, a moderate recovery began to take place in 2024.In QNB’s view, although global trade growth will remain below the long-term pre-Covid pandemic average, the recovery is set to continue in 2025. In this article, QNB analyses three key elements that support our expectations of a sustained recovery.First, key leading indicators point to an improvement in trade volumes. Investor expectations regarding future earnings of companies in the transportation sector are a revealing signal of prospects for global commerce.The Dow Jones Transportation Average is an equity index that is comprised of airlines, trucking, marine transportation, railroad and delivery companies, whose performance tends to lead the dynamics of global exports. After reaching a low in mid-2024 in year-over-year terms, the gauge has returned to the positive range that points to an expansion in trade.It is also valuable to track the export performance of highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, which report trade statistics in a timely fashion.After displaying negative growth during most of last year, in line with the contraction in world trade, this measure began a rising trend that continues in the expansionary range. Overall, leading indicators suggest that trade is set to sustain its recovery.Second, the Chinese government has announced a battery of aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, contributing to an improvement in the outlook for international trade in the medium term.During the course of this year, concerns regarding the performance of the Chinese economy started to mount amid deflationary pressures, the real estate crisis, and negative momentum in investor sentiment. Economic growth expectations for 2024 fluctuated between 4.5% and 4.9%, significantly below the 10-year average of 5.6%.In a strong response, Chinese authorities set forth a series of coordinated monetary, financial, and fiscal measures to provide support to the world’s second largest economy.QNB expects the comprehensive package of policy measures to bolster economic growth in China and East Asia, creating further momentum in the most dynamic trading region of the planet. This should further support an acceleration of overall trade growth.Third, the policy interest rate cutting cycles by major central banks will give trade an additional boost. Given the progress in bringing inflation under control, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are embarking on a significant process of monetary easing.This cycle, QNB noted, is expected to take policy rates from restrictive territory towards accommodative levels by end-2025. International trade is highly sensitive to credit and interest rates, given their influence on investment by firms and on the demand of durable goods by households, which are major components of trade flows. Thus, the monetary easing cycle in advanced economies will add momentum to global trade growth.“All in all, absent a major escalation in protectionism and geopolitical disruptions, we expect growth in volumes of trade to continue to recover, increasing to 3.2% in 2025, from an expected 2.8% this year, amid positive leading trade indicators, aggressive economic stimulus measures in China, and the policy interest rate cutting cycles in advanced economies,” QNB added.

Qatar National Bank (QNB) expected that growth in volumes of trade to continue to recover, increasing to 3.2 percent in 2025, from an expected 2.8 percent this year, amid positive leading trade indicators, aggressive economic stimulus measures in China, and the policy interest rate cutting cycles in advanced economies.In its weekly commentary, QNB said, "International trade has displayed extraordinary volatility in recent years. After the sharp collapse in trade volumes in 2020 resulting from the Covid-pandemic, a strong rebound took place in 2021 as the pandemic gradually receded and the global economy began to progressively reopen. Afterwards, a challenging environment emerged amid rising interest rates, high inflation, and geopolitical instability. These negative conditions resulted in a sharp deceleration of trade activity in 2022, which was even more disappointing in 2023, displaying a highly unusual contraction. During the last 40 years, a contraction in real trade volumes had only been recorded in 2009 as an aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and in 2020 with the dramatic disruptions caused by the Covid-pandemic."While some of the headwinds remain relevant today, including a challenging geopolitical environment fraught with protectionism and logistical disruptions, a moderate recovery began to take place in 2024. In our view, although global trade growth will remain below the long-term pre-Covid pandemic average, the recovery is set to continue in 2025.The bank said that there are three key elements that support its expectations of a sustained recovery."First, key leading indicators point to an improvement in trade volumes. Investor expectations regarding future earnings of companies in the transportation sector are a revealing signal of prospects for global commerce. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is an equity index that is comprised of airlines, trucking, marine transportation, railroad and delivery companies, whose performance tends to lead the dynamics of global exports. After reaching a low in mid-2024 in year-over-year terms, the gauge has returned to the positive range that points to an expansion in trade."It is also valuable to track the export performance of highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, which report trade statistics in a timely fashion. After displaying negative growth during most of last year, in line with the contraction in world trade, this measure began a rising trend that continues in the expansionary range. Overall, leading indicators suggest that trade is set to sustain its recovery."Second, the Chinese government has announced a battery of aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, contributing to an improvement in the outlook for international trade in the medium term. During the course of this year, concerns regarding the performance of the Chinese economy started to mount amid deflationary pressures, the real estate crisis, and negative momentum in investor sentiment. Economic growth expectations for 2024 fluctuated between 4.5 percent and 4.9 percent, significantly below the 10-year average of 5.6 percent. In a strong response, Chinese authorities set forth a series of coordinated monetary, financial, and fiscal measures to provide support to the worlds second largest economy. We expect the comprehensive package of policy measures to bolster economic growth in China and East Asia, creating further momentum in the most dynamic trading region of the planet. This should further support an acceleration of overall trade growth."Third, the policy interest rate cutting cycles by major central banks will give trade an additional boost. Given the progress in bringing inflation under control, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are embarking on a significant process of monetary easing. This cycle is expected to take policy rates from restrictive territory towards accommodative levels by end-2025. International trade is highly sensitive to credit and interest rates, given their influence on investment by firms and on the demand of durable goods by households, which are major components of trade flows. Thus, the monetary easing cycle in advanced economies will add momentum to global trade growth.QNB concluded, "All in all, absent a major escalation in protectionism and geopolitical disruptions, we expect growth in volumes of trade to continue to recover, increasing to 3.2 percent in 2025, from an expected 2.8 percent this year, amid positive leading trade indicators, aggressive economic stimulus measures in China, and the policy interest rate cutting cycles in advanced economies."

China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, and though consumption and factory output figures beat forecasts last month a tumbling property sector remains a major challenge for Beijing as it races to revitalise growth.Authorities have sharply ramped up policy stimulus since late September, but markets are waiting for more details on the size of the package and a clearer road map to put the economy back on a solid longer-term footing.The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.6% in July-September, official data showed, a touch above a 4.5% forecast in a Reuters poll but below the 4.7% pace in the second quarter. “China’s Q3 2024 data is not a turn-up for the books,” said Bruce Pang, Chief Economist at JLL. “The performance aligns with market expectations, given the weak domestic demand, a still struggling housing market, and slowing export growth.” “The stimulus package announced at the end of September will take time and patience to boost growth over the next several quarters,” he added.Officials addressing a post-data press conference on Friday expressed confidence the economy can achieve the government’s full year growth target of around 5%, underpinned by further policy support and another cut to the amount banks must hold in reserve. “Based on our comprehensive assessment, the economy in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the stabilisation and recovery trend that occurred in September.We are fully confident in achieving the full-year target,” Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of China’s statistics bureau, told reporters. Policymakers could take some comfort in forecast-topping industrial output and retail sales data for September, but the property sector continued to show sharp weakness and underline markets’ calls for more support steps. “We would downplay the importance of better-than-expected key economic indicators in September given that the structural weakness in the property and household sectors remains largely unaddressed,” said Betty Wang, an economist at Oxford Economics. “The recently announced stimulus measures could cushion the downside risks to next year’s growth, but are unlikely to reverse the structural downturn.”A Reuters poll showed China’s economy is likely to expand 4.8% in 2024, undershooting Beijing’s target, and growth could cool further to 4.5% in 2025. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 0.9% in the third quarter, compared with a revised 0.5% growth in April-June, and below forecast of 1.0%.With 70% of Chinese household wealth held in real estate, a sector that at its peak accounted for a quarter of the economy, consumers have kept their wallets shut tight. The frail consumption has taken a toll on many businesses, with major Franco-Italian eyewear maker EssilorLuxottica just one of many in the firing line.The makers of Rayban and Oakley brands reported it had missed third quarter revenue expectations dragged by weak consumer demand in China.Worryingly, there were few signs of a property market revival despite several rounds of policy support measures over the past year, with separate data on Friday showing China’s new home prices fell at the fastest pace since May 2015.China’s crude steel output in September also slid for a fourth month, missing expectations of a rebound in purchases of the construction commodity. Moreover, cracks have started to appear in the key export sector, a lone bright spot in the economy, with shipment growth slowing sharply last month.Markets were choppy following yesterday’s burst of data, but then rallied sharply with the blue-chip CSI300 Index up 2.5% and the Shanghai Composite rising 2.0% after the central bank announced two funding schemes to support the equity market.China has been grappling with deflationary pressures since early last year, and some economists see those strains deepening. “The GDP data confirmed that China faces excess supply and lack of demand. China is seen falling into fully-fledged deflation,” said Toru Nishihama, Chief Economist, Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. Policymakers, who have traditionally leaned on infrastructure and manufacturing investment to drive growth, have pledged to shift focus towards stimulating consumption. The central bank in late September announced the most aggressive monetary support measures since the Covid-19 pandemic to support the property and stock markets.However, the numerous steps have still left investors waiting on details of the overall size of the stimulus package and a clear plan to reignite broader growth. China observers have also repeatedly highlighted the need for authorities to address longer-term structural challenges such as overcapacity, high debt levels and an ageing population.