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As the climate crisis escalates, the European Union and the United Kingdom are moving forward with their Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, promoting it as a landmark tool linking trade and climate policy. But the CBAM’s ambitious aims are now meeting a growing backlash.The CBAM puts a price on the carbon content of emissions-intensive imports like steel, aluminium, and cement. The goal is to reinforce the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) and create a level playing field between domestic and foreign producers, thereby incentivising greener production practices worldwide.Despite the European Parliament’s support for recent proposals to simplify the CBAM, its current design and pace of implementation risk undermining its legitimacy. Rather than advancing a fair and equitable energy transition, it could stoke trade tensions and fuel economic fragmentation, exacerbate inequality, and deliver only limited climate benefits.The transition phase, which began in October 2023, requires importers to report carbon dioxide emissions associated with their goods, but does not require them to pay. That will change in January 2027, when the CBAM’s levies on carbon-intensive imports take effect.Most countries in the Global South – particularly major exporters to the EU – are unprepared for this shift, because they lack the technical capacity to track and report embedded CO2 emissions, the institutional infrastructure to verify them, and the fiscal space to absorb the costs of compliance. These are some of the symptoms of a deeply unequal global system in which the burdens of climate action have not been fairly distributed.However commendable the CBAM’s stated goals may be, its inherent asymmetries must not be overlooked. Applying a uniform carbon-pricing regime to countries with vastly different capacities undermines the principle of a just energy transition and erodes the legitimacy of global climate action by placing a disproportionate burden on those least responsible for the crisis. Many developing economies are still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic and struggling with rising public debt, in addition to being acutely vulnerable to climate shocks. Now, they are expected to comply with EU and UK standards despite lacking access to robust emissions data systems, clean technologies, regulatory infrastructure, and adequate climate finance.Compounding the problem, revenues generated through the CBAM will be directed to the budgets of the EU and the UK rather than to international climate finance or support for affected countries. This design flaw reinforces the perception that the CBAM is not a genuine effort to advance global climate goals but an instrument of trade protectionism. Many countries, particularly outside Europe, have voiced such concerns, viewing the mechanism as a unilateral trade measure cloaked in green rhetoric.The geopolitical consequences could be dire. The CBAM has emerged at a time of fraying multilateralism and escalating trade tensions. Without broader participation and tangible support for affected exporters, it risks fuelling economic fragmentation and undermining global trust – just when international climate cooperation is most critical and official development assistance is being slashed. But the CBAM is not beyond repair. With thoughtful reforms, it can evolve from a rigid policy tool into a catalyst for an equitable climate transition. To achieve this, the EU and the UK should consider postponing the start of financial enforcement until at least 2028, thereby giving developing countries time to prepare and adapt.This pause must be anchored in a strategic partnership framework that directs resources toward establishing emission-tracking systems, strengthening regulatory capacity, developing carbon-credit markets, and accelerating green industrial investment in climate-vulnerable economies.Moreover, a portion of CBAM revenues should be allocated to international climate partnerships. This would make the mechanism more equitable, build trust with developing countries, and ensure that carbon pricing serves as an incentive rather than a penalty. Most importantly, the CBAM must not be framed as a final destination, but as a step toward a more coordinated and inclusive carbon-pricing framework. Mutual recognition of national systems, policy flexibility, and transitional thresholds could help prevent fragmentation and promote international alignment.While the EU and the UK have both the capacity and the influence to help shape global standards, climate leadership demands more than bold policy ambitions; it requires solidarity, partnership, and the recognition of shared but differentiated responsibilities. Rather than simply decarbonising imports through a transactional approach, policymakers must focus on facilitating low-carbon development.That goal cannot be achieved through border measures alone. If rushed, the CBAM could become just another divisive international levy.The fight against climate change will not be won through exclusion. A sustainable future depends on building systems that bring others along. A well-designed CBAM could play a vital role in that effort.

Elon Musk once famously wielded a chainsaw on stage in a theatrical demonstration of his effort to drastically cut US federal spending under President Donald Trump. As he leaves government amid bitter acrimony, official data shows he achieved something closer to a trim with scissors.In the four months since Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency began slashing federal spending and staffing, a handful of the agencies he has targeted trimmed their combined spending by about $19bn compared with the same period last year, according to US Treasury Department summaries reviewed by Reuters.That is far below Musk’s initial goal of $2tn in savings and amounts to about a half of 1% of total spending by the federal government. Musk said last late last month he is leaving the administration but that its cost-cutting work will “only strengthen over time.” It remains to be seen, however, how enthusiastically Trump’s cabinet secretaries will continue to downsize their departments. DOGE says it pulled the plug on more than 26,000 federal grants and contracts that are worth about $73bn, while more than 260,000 government workers have been bought out, taken early retirement or been fired. But the DOGE tallies have been riddled with errors, according to reviews by numerous budget experts and media outlets, including Reuters. That has made them difficult to verify, and some of the announced cuts are not saving the government any money because judges have reversed or stalled them.That leaves the Treasury Department’s daily reports on how much the government is spending as the clearest window into the scope of the administration’s cost-cutting.The view they offer so far is modest: The government has spent about $250bn more during the first months of Trump’s administration than it did during the same period of time last year, a 10% increase. And even some parts of the government Trump has cut the most deeply are, for now at least, spending more money than they did last year.One big factor driving costs is largely outside Trump’s immediate control: interest payments on the United States’ growing pile of debt, which amount to about $1 in every $7 the federal government spends. Debt interest payments are up about 22% from a year ago.Spending on Social Security, the safety-net programme for the elderly and disabled, totalled about $500bn since Trump’s inauguration, up 10% from a year earlier.To be sure, the view offered by the Treasury Department’s daily reports is incomplete.Many of the cuts DOGE has made to the federal workforce, grants and contracting will reduce what the government will spend in the future but do not show up in its checkbook today.For example, while thousands of workers have taken buyouts, the government will continue to pay their wages until October. So far, the Labour Department has estimated there were only about 26,000 fewer people on federal payrolls in April than were on the books in January, after adjusting the figures for typical seasonal swings.Tallying savings from future cuts, however, is seldom straightforward.“It could be that in the future we never replace these workers and we save billions of dollars, or it could be that they come back and it’s even more expensive than before,” said Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Budget Lab at Yale, a nonpartisan budget analysis organisation at Yale University.The White House declined to offer an explanation for DOGE’s figures. Spokesman Harrison Fields said in a statement that “DOGE is working at record speed to cut waste, fraud, and abuse, producing historic savings for the American people.”Reuters estimated the administration’s impact by tallying outlays at agencies that had been targeted for cuts and whose spending had dropped from the same time last year.Among the agencies hardest hit are the Department of Education, State Department, US Agency for International Development, National Institutes of Health, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and other independent agencies.Rachel Snyderman, an expert on fiscal policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said the spending declines at agencies could be reversed if the Trump administration doesn’t get congressional approval to cancel outlays from this year’s federal budget, as required by law.The most obvious sign that the Trump administration is making a dent in federal spending is in the Education Department, which Trump has ordered shut down.The administration cut the department’s staff by about half in March. DOGE’s website lists 311 Education Department grants and contracts it says it has eliminated for a savings of about $1.6bn, though it is not clear how it arrived at those figures. Some cuts have not stuck. A federal judge in March ordered the administration to restore some of the grants it had cut, and another judge this month ordered it to rehire 1,400 workers.Still, the Education Department under Trump has spent close to $11bn less than it did over the same period last year, the Treasury reports show, far more than what DOGE says it has cut. One reason could be that layoffs have made it harder for the government to process payments for special education and low-income schools. School districts that have sued over the cuts alleged that states were already experiencing slowdowns in receiving money.Another factor for the reduced outlays: The department has stopped handing out the $4.4bn that remains to be distributed from the hundreds of billions of dollars approved in previous years to help schools weather the Covid-19 crisis.The Education Department did not respond to a request for comment.Other agencies targeted in Trump’s overhaul are also starting to show declines in their spending compared with the same time last year.Spending is down about $350mn at the CDC and about $1bn at the National Institutes of Health.The Trump administration has moved to slash spending across those agencies, cancelling grants and ending leases for office space.The Department of Health and Human Services has reported terminating close to 2,000 grants that planned to disperse more than $20bn.Many of the grants were to boost labs that fight new infectious diseases, or to fund state mental health programmes. Some $14bn of the grant money had already been spent prior to the termination, with roughly $7bn effectively frozen, according to a Reuters analysis of the government’s tallies.The administration has effectively dismantled USAID, which handled most US foreign assistance, firing nearly all of the agency’s employees and cancelling most of its humanitarian aid and health programmes, though federal courts have forced the government to continue making some payments.USAID spending is down about 40%, to about $4.6bn, from last year. Spending at the State Department — where DOGE says it has cut nearly $1bn in grants and contracts — is also down about 20% from 2024.Measuring the impact of the administration’s actions is difficult because many cuts will not yield savings for months or years even as spending elsewhere increases. Spending on federal employee salaries, for example, is up by more than $3bn under Trump.Some of the grants and contracts DOGE cut were due to be paid out over several years, and many remain the subject of lawsuits that will determine whether they can be cut at all.DOGE says it has saved taxpayers $175bn, but the details it has posted on its website, where it gives the only public accounting of those changes, add up to less than half of that figure. It says the figure includes workforce cuts, interest savings and other measures it has not itemised.It is also hard to know exactly how much the government would have spent if the administration had not started cutting. — Reuters

Former correspondent for Reuters and the BBC, informant for M16Said he never intended to become a writerBooks sold more than 75 million copiesBritish novelist Frederick Forsyth, who authored best-selling thrillers such as "The Day of the Jackal" and "The Dogs of War," has died aged 86, his publisher said.A former correspondent for Reuters and the BBC, and an informant for Britain's MI6 foreign spy agency, Forsyth made his name by using his experiences as a reporter in Paris to pen the story of a failed assassination plot on Charles de Gaulle."The Day of the Jackal", in which an English assassin, played in the film by Edward Fox, is hired by French paramilitaries angry at de Gaulle's withdrawal from Algeria, was published in 1971 after Forsyth found himself penniless in London.Written in just 35 days, the book was rejected by a host of publishers who worried that the story was flawed and would not sell as de Gaulle had not been assassinated. De Gaulle died in 1970 from a ruptured aorta while playing Solitaire.But Forsyth's hurricane-paced thriller complete with journalistic-style detail and brutal sub-plots of lust, betrayal and murder was an instant hit. The once poor journalist became a wealthy writer of fiction."I never intended to be a writer at all," Forsyth later wrote in his memoire, "The Outsider - My Life in Intrigue". "After all, writers are odd creatures, and if they try to make a living at it, even more so."So influential was the novel that Venezuelan militant revolutionary Illich Ramirez Sanchez, was dubbed "Carlos the Jackal".Forsyth presented himself as a cross between Ernest Hemingway and John le Carre - both action man and Cold War spy - but delighted in turning around the insult that he was a literary lightweight."I am lightweight but popular. My books sell," he once said.His books, fantastical plots that almost rejoiced in the cynicism of an underworld of spies, criminals, hackers and killers, sold more than 75 million copies.Behind the swashbuckling bravado, though, there were hints of sadness. He later spoke of turning inwards to his imagination as a lonely only child during and after World War Two.The isolated Forsyth discovered a talent for languages: he claimed to be a native French speaker by the age of 12 and a native German speaker by the age of 16, largely due to exchanges.He went to Tonbridge School, one of England's ancient fee-paying schools, and learned Russian from two emigre Georgian princesses in Paris. He added Spanish by the age of 18.He also learned to fly and did his national service in the Royal Air Force where he flew fighters such as a single seater version of the de Havilland Vampire.Impressing Reuters' editors with his languages and knowledge that Bujumbura was a city in Burundi, he was offered a job at the news agency in 1961 and sent to Paris and then East Berlin where the Stasi secret police kept close tabs on him.He left Reuters for the BBC but soon became disillusioned by its bureaucracy and what he saw as the corporation's failure to cover Nigeria properly due to the government's incompetent post-colonial views on Africa.It was in 1968 that Forsyth was approached by the Secret Intelligence Service, known as MI6, and asked by an officer named "Ronnie" to inform on what was really going on in Biafra.By his own account, he would keep contacts with the MI6, which he called "the Firm", for many years. His novels showed extensive knowledge of the world of spies and he even edited out bits of The Fourth Protocol (1984), he said, so that militants would not know how to detonate an atomic bomb.His writing was sometimes cruel, such as when the Jackal kills his lover after she discovers he is an assassin."He looked down at her, and for the first time she noticed that the grey flecks in his eyes had spread and clouded over the whole expression, which had become dead and lifeless like a machine staring down at her."After finally finding a publisher for "The Day of the Jackal," he was offered a three-novel contract by Harold Harris of Hutchinson.Next came "The Odessa File" in 1972, the story of a young German freelance journalist who tries to track down SS man Eduard Roschmann, or "The Butcher of Riga".After that, "The Dogs of War" in 1974 is about a group of white mercenaries hired by a British mining magnate to kill the mad dictator of an African republic - based on Equatorial Guinea's Francisco Macias Nguema - and replace him with a puppet.The New York Times said at the time that the novel was "pitched at the level of a suburban Saturday night movie audience" and that it was "informed with a kind of post‐imperial condescension toward the black man".Divorced from Carole Cunningham in 1988, he married Sandy Molloy in 1994. But he lost a fortune in an investment scam and had to write more novels to support himself. He had two sons - Stuart and Shane - with his first wife.His later novels variously cast hackers, Russians, al Qaeda militants and cocaine smugglers against the forces of good - broadly Britain and the West. But the novels never quite reached the level of the Jackal.A supporter of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, Forsyth scolded Britain's elites for what he cast as their treachery and naivety.In columns for The Daily Express, he gave a host of withering assessments of the modern world from an intellectual right-wing perspective.The world, he said, worried too much about "the oriental pandemic" (known to most as Covid-19), Donald Trump was "deranged", Vladimir Putin "a tyrant" and "liberal luvvies of the West" were wrong on most things.He was, to the end, a reporter who wrote novels."In a world that increasingly obsesses over the gods of power, money and fame, a journalist and a writer must remain detached," he wrote. "It is our job to hold power to account."

Despite the sharp rally in recent months, there is still further upside for gold over the medium-term, according to QNB.This is supported by strong momentum across different macro regimes, long-term geopolitical trends with central bank portfolio rebalancing, and foreign exchange (FX) movements, QNB said in an economic commentary.Gold occupies a unique role in modern investing. It generates no cash flow, incurs storage costs, and has limited industrial utility – yet it continues to hold enduring appeal among households, sovereigns, and institutional investors.Gold’s historical legacy as a monetary anchor has recently intersected with a more contemporary function: risk mitigation. This demand for gold has been supported by the idea that the yellow metal provides a key utility as a portfolio diversifier protecting against inflation, financial crisis, international conflicts and civil strife.Importantly, gold’s resilience in the face of economic shocks, such as the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09 or the Covid-19 pandemic, underscores its role as a hedge against systemic risks and macroeconomic instability.In recent years, gold has rallied significantly, a process that has accelerated over the last few months. In fact, before the most recent pullback, gold prices reached $3,500 per ounce, making sequential all-time highs for months.After such significant rally, which amounts to 114% in price appreciation since the pandemic and 92% since the Russo-Ukrainian conflict began, it is natural that analysts and investors would question whether there is still more upside for gold over the coming years.In fact, gold has decisively outperformed all major asset classes, challenging the perception that it merely serves as a defensive hedge. A sustained outperformance highlights that gold, while traditionally valued for its safety during crisis, can also generate robust returns under different macroeconomic conditions.Gold’s consistent gains relative to equities, bonds, and commodities since early 2020 suggest that it merits consideration not only as protective allocation but as strategic, return-enhancing asset within a diversified portfolio.This dual characteristic – providing resilience during uncertainty while also delivering meaningful capital appreciation during periods of higher investor risk appetite – further strengthens the case for gold as a core holding.This is especially valid for environments of elevated inflation, currency de-basement, foreign exchange depreciation, or systematic market volatility.In QNB’s view, despite the surge in prices, there is still further upside for prices over the medium-term, as global macro conditions are favourable for gold. Two main factors sustain its position.First, gold’s appeal has been further bolstered by secular or long-term geopolitical trends, including the intensifying economic rivalry between West and East, a decline in international co-operation, escalating trade disputes, increasing political polarisation, and the “weaponisation” of economic relations via sanctions.This has particularly intensified after the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and the US-driven “trade wars”. In an era marked by more geopolitical instability, gold’s status as a tangible, jurisdictionally neutral asset that can serve as collateral in various markets becomes increasingly significant.Reflecting this movement, central banks globally have been accumulating gold at a rate unseen in generations.According to the World Gold Council, after the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, central bank additional demand for gold more than doubled from 450 tons per year to more than one thousand tons per year.Surprisingly, despite the increase in official demand for gold from central banks, there is still a lot of room for a much longer process of gold accumulation or portfolio rebalancing towards the precious metal.While large advanced economies tend to hold around 25% of their foreign exchange (FX) reserves in gold, large EM-based central banks hold only less than 8% of their FX reserves in gold.Given that these EM-based central banks hold around $6tn in FX reserves, there is scope for a continued multi-year process of portfolio rebalancing from these reserve managers. This supports a steady long-term institutional demand for gold.Second, foreign exchange (FX) movements are poised to lend additional support to gold prices.Historically, gold has shown a strong inverse correlation with the USD – typically rising when the USD weakens and falling when it strengthens.The USD has already depreciated by more than 6.9% against a basket of major currencies so far this year. Moreover, despite this sharp depreciation, currency valuations still suggest that the USD remains overvalued by more than 15%, indicating further room for depreciation ahead.A softer USD is likely to support gold prices going forward, as it enhances global purchasing power for USD-denominated commodities like gold, stimulating demand and providing an additional tailwind for prices.Moreover, as investors seek protection against the erosion of purchasing power associated with USD depreciation, they often turn to gold as an alternative store of value. Consequently, a declining USD typically drives higher demand and upward price momentum for gold, QNB noted.

The global airline industry is optimistic about long-term growth, which is based on various macroeconomic and demographic trends around the world. But a shortage of aircraft — driven by supply chain disruptions, production delays, and labour shortages — is limiting capacity expansion.Rising global population, higher incomes and affordability and pent-up demand post-Covid, are obviously driving the airline industry’s long-term optimism.More people certainly means more potential passengers, especially in major emerging markets such as China and India.Urbanisation and growing middle classes in other parts of Asia, and Africa and Latin America are expanding demand for both domestic and international air travel.Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the traditional driver of airline economics. However, although global GDP growth is expected to fall from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, airline profitability is expected to improve.This is largely on the back of falling oil prices, noted Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Walsh expects global airline industry’s net profit to exceed $36bn this year, improved from the $32.4bn earned in 2024.At the recent IATA Annual General Meeting in New Delhi, he projected total traveller numbers reaching a record high of 4.99bn in 2025. While demand for airline seats is rising, airlines around the world face a supply constraint: they can’t get new planes fast enough!This shortage stems from several intertwined issues such as woeful production delays at major manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, supply chain disruptions, post-pandemic, and labour shortages.Walsh noted that the aircraft backlog exceeds 17,000 (sharply up from the 10,000-11,000 pre-pandemic), with an implied wait time of 14 years. “Should states exit from a multilateral agreement exempting aircraft from tariffs, supply chain constraints and production limitations could be further aggravated,” Walsh said.Supply chain issues have had significant negative impacts on airlines: driving-up leasing costs, increasing the average fleet age to 15 years (from 13 in 2015), cutting the fleet replacement rate to half the 5-6% of 2020, and reducing the efficiency of fleet utilisation (using larger aircraft than needed on some routes, for example). In 2025, some 1,692 aircraft are expected to be delivered, he said. Although this would mark the highest level since 2018, it is almost 26% lower than year-ago estimates. Further downward revisions are likely, given that supply chain issues are expected to persist in 2025 and possibly to the end of the decade.Engine problems and a shortage of spare parts exacerbate the situation and have caused record-high groundings of certain aircraft types, he said.The number of aircraft younger than 10 years in storage is currently more than 1,100, constituting 3.8% of the total fleet compared with 1.3% between 2015 and 2018. Nearly 70% of these grounded aircraft are equipped with PW1000G engines.“Manufacturers continue to let their airline customers down. Every airline is frustrated that these problems have persisted so long. And indications that it could take until the end of the decade to fix them are off-the-chart unacceptable!” said Walsh.According to industry analysts, aircraft shortage limits the ability of airlines to expand their routes or increase frequencies.Older, less fuel-efficient aircraft may stay in service longer (hurting margins and sustainability goals). Another challenge for airlines is that lease prices and second-hand aircraft values are surging.For passengers, this situation results in reduced availability of seats, especially on popular routes and during peak seasons. The supply-demand imbalance obviously means higher airfares.Walsh sounded a note of caution in the wake of conflicts in some parts of the world and trade tensions, which affect every nation on earth.The resolution of conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war would have a benefit for airlines in reconnecting de-linked economies and reopening airspace. Conversely, any expansion of military activity could have a dampening effect.Tariffs and prolonged trade wars dampen demand for air cargo and potentially travel. Additionally, the uncertainty over how the US trade policies will evolve could hold back critical business decisions that drive economic activity, and with it the demand for air cargo and business travel.Successful tariff negotiations and strategic collaboration across the value chain, along with investments in sustainability and operational efficiency, will therefore be essential to navigate various constraints and support long-term industry growth.

Most of Jaruwat Jinnmonca’s anti-trafficking work used to focus on helping victims swept into prostitution.Now, survivors of cyber-scam compounds dominate his time as founder of the Thailand-based Immanuel Foundation.Hundreds of thousands of victims are trapped in cyber-crime scam farms that sprung up during the Covid-19 pandemic in Southeast Asia, according to the United Nations.Conditions are reported to be brutal, with the detainees ruled by violence.Photos on Jinnmonca’s phone show victims with purple and blue bruises, bleeding wounds and even the lifeless body of someone who had been severely beaten or was dead.He has received reports of seven killings from inside compounds this year alone and reports of other forced labourers killing themselves, worn out from waiting for help that may never arrive.“They want to go back home,” he said, and if they do not follow orders, the gang leaders “will abuse them until they die.“Some, when they cannot escape, they jump off the seventh or 10th floor. They want to die,” he said. Criminal gangs cashed in on pandemic-induced economic vulnerability and even now, workers come from as far as Ethiopia and India, duped into thinking a paid-for journey to Thailand will yield a worthwhile employment opportunity.Instead they spend their days tethered to technology, generating fake social media profiles and compelling stories to swindle money from unsuspecting people, contributing to a cyber-crime economy that accounted for $8tn in losses in 2023.In February, under pressure from China after a well-known Chinese actor, Wang Xing, was trafficked, Myanmar authorities and the Thai government collaborated in the biggest rescue operation yet.By shutting down the Internet and stopping fuel supplies and electricity in Myawaddy, Myanmar, authorities were able to debilitate several compounds, leading to the release of more than 7,000 workers. Their ordeal, however, is not yet over. Many of them are waiting to be repatriated in holding centres where access to food and medicine is said to be scarce.The Immanuel Foundation has rescued more than 2,700 people since 2020.“We bring them to hospital for a health check and then take them to talk to law enforcement,” Jinnmonca said, as his phone vibrated for a third time in just 30 minutes.The call was from one of his 12 staff members reporting that the team succeeded in extracting a Thai woman from a scam centre in Cambodia.She was covered in scars from beatings but otherwise healthy, the team said. Escaped workers say they were given little food or clean water and threatened with beatings or death if quotas were unmet.For Palit, 42, a former clothing shop owner from northern Thailand, the risk of electric shock was never far away during his six-month detention. He had been attracted to the promise of a high-paying administrative job in South Korea but instead was flown to Mandalay in Myanmar. Fearing he was being trafficked for his organs, it was a relief to know he could keep them, he said.Instead he was forced to spend his time creating fake profiles to engage a minimum of five people every day in online relationships.Well known among forced labourers, Jinnmonca’s personal Facebook pings with messages, typically four new people each day, begging for help and sharing stories like Palit’s. The cross-border nature of trafficking rescue makes the repatriation process difficult and slow, said Amy Miller, regional director for Southeast Asia at Acts of Mercy International, which supports survivors.“They are complaining about the wait time,” she said. “There are people who are sick that are maybe not getting treatment.“It’s just a tinder box ready to go up in flames.”Jinnmonca said he believes the most effective way to protect against trafficking and the scams is to imprison the masterminds at the top.“If [we do] not fix this problem, it will only double,” he said.Instead, he said, the workers are targeted by authorities.When Palit, who is soft-spoken and quick to smile, was released from a scam centre in November 2023 alongside 328 other people, 10 of them were arrested.They were accused of being complicit in cyber crime and kidnapping because their language skills gave them leadership roles in the compound’s living quarters.But they were victims as well, said Jinnmonca, and such arrests mean workers rescued from the clutches of criminal gangs in one country may face prison in another.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is about to lower interest rates for the final time before an increasingly complicated inflation outlook risks bringing internal divisions to the fore.As price risks recede, officials have cut seven times in the last year with little friction on the 26-strong Governing Council. An eighth move is expected on Thursday, bringing the deposit rate to 2%.But while some would like that to be the bottom — wary of a glut of spending to come by European governments — others want more to underpin flimsy economic growth.The key sticking point is Donald Trump’s tariffs — specifically, their knock-on effects for eurozone prices. The ECB is mapping out various scenarios to try to better grasp what’s coming but confidence in any given outcome is in short supply. One policymaker puts the chances of the baseline materialising at less than 50%.The upshot is that the ECB is shifting away from tackling elevated inflation to a phase characterised by the kind of unpredictability seen during Covid and Russia’s war in Ukraine. That means it must be attuned to the risk of price gains coming in either side of 2%, according to Katharine Neiss, chief European economist at PGIM Fixed Income.“It’s very possible that the macro picture warrants near-term cuts to support the economy through this period of uncertainty, but that higher rates are needed further out assuming other policy levers such as fiscal come into play,” she said. “That said, it will be important for the ECB to remain alive to the risk of returning to too-low inflation, as was the case in the decade before 2020.”With price growth nearing the 2% goal, investors still reckon there’ll be one more decrease in rates after this week, but aren’t sure when. Analysts in a Bloomberg poll are more certain — predicting moves in June and September for a terminal rate of 1.75%.Trump’s actions on trade could yet upend those views. While most European Union goods are currently subject to a 10% US levy, that could jump to 50% in July. The ECB’s scenario analysis, due as part of its quarterly outlook, underscores the uncertainty.As things stand, the near-term inflation picture looks benign: Energy costs have cratered and the euro has strengthened since the US first unveiled “reciprocal tariffs” in April. Eurostat figures for May will arrive Tuesday, likely showing an on-target reading of 2%.But how prices evolve will hinge on possible retaliation from Brussels and how the US-China relationship pans out. In the longer term, European spending on defence and infrastructure, fractured supply chains and an ageing workforce could feed inflation pressure.Against this backdrop, hawkish Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has cautioned against more easing, arguing that the ECB is “in a good place to evaluate the likely future evolution of the economy” and act as needed.Dutch central-bank chief Klaas Knot and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel have also warned that the medium-term inflation outlook is murky.For Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, the future will be dominated by upside threats to prices.“The main reasons are demographics and the structural labour shortage,” he said. “At the moment, much is overshadowed by Trump’s policies. But monetary policy is already working, and there’s no need to add significantly more stimulus now.”Some Governing Council members are open to more forceful action. Belgium’s Pierre Wunsch has said the ECB may need to support the economy “a little bit” to ensure inflation doesn’t fall below target. Lithuania’s Gediminas Simkus said there are increasing risks of an undershoot on prices.“The ECB will almost certainly lower rates by 25 basis points again at its next meeting. The disinflationary impact of US tariffs, the latest data on wage growth and our forecasts all point to the euro area no longer really having an inflation problem. The Governing Council will also probably retain a dovish tone to keep open the door for further easing later in the year,” David Powell, senior euro-area economist at Bloomberg.Should the outlook start to point in that direction, it’s not clear what the optimal strategy would be. While some may back more rate reductions to guard against price expectations falling too low, others would probably opt for Schnabel’s “steady-hand” approach.Investors may not get a lot more guidance from President Christine Lagarde on Thursday. Rather than hinting what may happen, the ECB has recently preferred to highlight the factors on which its decisions will be based.“There are massive uncertainties littering the road ahead and the ECB will take great care not to pre-commit itself during the next press conference,” said Sonja Marten, head of currency and monetary-policy research at DZ Bank. She sees two more cuts this year, with little reason to turn stimulative because growth should look rosier again in 2026.Some analysts expect more easing. AXA Group Chief Economist Gilles Moec said the continued headwinds from the US and the danger of Chinese goods being diverted to Europe point to softer inflation and rates dropping as low as 1.25% — even if policymakers will find it difficult to get there.“Every single cut from now on is going to be much tougher,” he said. “There’ll be growing resistance, so it’ll come down to the data to convince the Governing Council to go as far as I think they’ll have to end up going. It’ll make for complicated conversations after the summer.”

Beyond the TarmacAir passenger connectivity offered by airports in the Middle East, Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region in particular, posted an impressive 28% increase year-on-year in 2024, surpassing all post-Covid recovery forecasts.This, according to Airports Council International Asia-Pacific & Middle East (ACI APAC & MID), has been driven by strong international demand, robust network recovery, and the return of major travel corridors.Analysts say improved air connectivity is a reflection of the Middle East region’s strategic importance, economic vitality, and appeal to airlines and passengers. Since improved air connectivity facilitates trade, tourism, business travel, and global integration — these are integral to regional economic growth.The ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East Air Connectivity Ranking is a comprehensive, passenger-centric analytical tool developed in collaboration with PwC in 2023 and refined for its third edition in 2025. The ranking evaluates the overall level of air passenger connectivity offered by airports across the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions.It assesses performance through three fundamental building blocks: network scale and frequency, economic weight of destinations, and connection quality and efficiency.According to Airports Council International Asia-Pacific & Middle East, the Asia-Pacific region witnessed a remarkable 13% jump in overall connectivity compared to 2023, while the Middle East posted an impressive 28% increase, surpassing all post-pandemic recovery forecasts.On average, connectivity across all airports rose in both Asia-Pacific and the Middle East by +14%, a strong testament to the resilience and dynamism of the aviation sector.In Asia-Pacific, intra-regional connections are nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, trailing by just 0.2%. At the same time, intercontinental connectivity is on the rise, showing a solid 4% increase.The Middle East, however, isn't just recovering – it's setting a new pace. Both intra-regional and inter-continent connectivity have not only bounced back but have exceeded pre-pandemic levels by a significant margin of 18% and 16%, respectively.Commenting on the report, Stefano Baronci, Director General, ACI Asia-Pacific and Middle East, said: “Air connectivity is not only relevant for passengers seeking more travel options and convenience; it is equally crucial for supporting global trade and economic resilience, particularly through belly hold cargo capacity.”“While we celebrate this growth, we must remain forward-looking to ensure the momentum is sustained. Investment in airport infrastructure and technological upgrades is a prerequisite for enhancing connectivity, and airports across the region are undertaking significant investments to make this possible. In the face of growing geopolitical and trade tensions, we urge governments to prioritise air service liberalisation, streamlined visa policies, and transparent slot allocation frameworks. Lastly, we must not lose sight of the needs of small island and remote communities-- air connectivity remains their lifeline,” Baronci added.Rise of Airport City Clusters: The 2025 edition introduces a fresh dimension: An analysis of airport city clusters. Larger urban agglomerations like Shenzhen–Hong Kong–Macau, Tokyo, Shanghai, and Beijing dominate the new City Connectivity Index, demonstrating that the presence of multiple large airports enables higher flight frequencies and diversified routing options.Clusters such as Beijing and Shenzhen–Hong Kong-Macau have seen a substantial enhancement of connectivity through effective use of secondary airports. Seoul, Bangkok, and Taipei lead in per capita accessibility, offering exceptional connectivity relative to population size.Analysts see improved air connectivity in the GCC region reflecting a deliberate strategy by Gulf countries to position themselves as global aviation and economic hubs.Doha’s Hamad International Airport, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Jeddah have all undergone massive expansions.These GCC airports now serve as mega-hubs for international travel, offering seamless connections between the East and the West.Airports in the GCC now act as a midpoint hub for connecting passengers between continents. Improved transit facilities and airline alliances enhance the region’s attractiveness to global travellers.In the last two decades or so, GCC countries have either opened or increased frequencies on high-demand long-haul routes (e.g., to Europe, Asia, and North America). Enhanced intra-GCC connectivity also improves movement between Gulf States for business and tourism.Enhanced connectivity supports not just passenger travel but also air freight and cargo, making the GCC a logistics powerhouse. Doha and Dubai are cases in point.Improved air connectivity in the GCC denotes the transformation of the region into a critical global aviation and economic hub, driving diversification beyond oil and increasing regional and international influence. It clearly reflects a broader strategic vision that combines infrastructure development, airline growth, and geopolitical positioning.

Governments across Europe are pressing ahead with ambitious climate policies, and the transport sector – among the continent’s largest carbon emitters – has become a central focus. Aviation, in particular, continues to face political pressure, as countries introduce taxes, bans on short-haul flights, and stricter emissions targets. But as calls for greener travel intensify, something more nuanced is taking shape: A shift not from air to rail, but a blending of both.For decades, the idea of modal shift – encouraging travellers to choose rail over air – has been treated as a zero-sum game. Airlines lose, railways win. But that binary is changing. A growing number of air and rail operators are beginning to recognise that co-operation may be more powerful than competition, especially when it comes to meeting government sustainability goals while retaining commercial viability. And nowhere is this shift more visible than in France.In April 2022, the French government passed a law banning domestic flights on routes where a rail alternative exists with a journey time of less than two and a half hours. The law, which stemmed from an environmental clause attached to Air France’s €7bn Covid-era bailout, affects key city pairs such as Paris–Lyon, Paris–Bordeaux and Paris–Nantes. But rather than watch its passenger flows evaporate, Air France responded by deepening its partnership with France’s national rail operator, SNCF. The result is the expansion of the ‘Train + Air’ programme – a multimodal product that allows passengers to book a rail journey and flight on one itinerary, with through-checked baggage, schedule protection, and loyalty accrual.While this may seem like a simple intermodal convenience, its implications go far beyond that. By integrating SNCF’s high-speed TGV services with its flight network, Air France retains its role as the primary distributor of passenger journeys – even when the first leg is by train. In effect, Air France still owns the customer relationship and captures a share of the revenue, without having to operate a short-haul flight that is increasingly uneconomical and environmentally unpopular. It’s a quiet strategic win: governments are satisfied with fewer planes in the sky, railways gain ridership, and the airline preserves its relevance – and margins.Germany, too, is evolving in this direction. Lufthansa Group, which operates major carriers including Lufthansa, Swiss and Austrian, has long partnered with Deutsche Bahn. In recent years, that relationship has deepened through the “AIRail” programme, an increasingly integrated offering connecting high-speed ICE trains with long-haul flights from Frankfurt. Lufthansa now codeshares on a growing number of Deutsche Bahn services, sells rail connections via its website, and provides lounge access to rail passengers connecting to intercontinental flights. For Lufthansa, the logic mirrors that of Air France: Preserve the customer relationship, meet political expectations, and avoid flying inefficient short routes that jam up congested airspace and airport slots.But these partnerships are not merely reactive. As aircraft become cleaner and more efficient, and as airports face growth caps, many airlines are embracing intermodality as a proactive business strategy. The crux lies in maintaining profitability while adapting to a changing landscape. Airlines, fundamentally, are network businesses. A flight from Paris to New York is more valuable if it can connect to passengers from Nice, Marseille, Lyon or Bordeaux. If short-haul flights are axed, those feed routes must be replaced – and high-speed rail is increasingly stepping into that role. But for the model to work, airlines must retain visibility, control, and commercial participation in those rail legs.It’s no surprise, then, that new digital infrastructure is being developed to better integrate rail and air systems. Companies like AccesRail, a technology provider used by IATA, enable rail services to be sold in airline global distribution systems (GDS) under pseudo-airline codes. This makes a train from Brussels to Frankfurt bookable just like a Lufthansa flight, with all the same protections and pricing rules. The result is a growing number of hybrid itineraries that, to the passenger, feel seamless.In Austria, the government imposed a similar flight ban condition as part of Austrian Airlines’ Covid bailout a few years ago, specifically on the Vienna–Salzburg route. In response, Austrian replaced its flights with ÖBB Railjet trains, maintaining the journey as part of its booking system. The airline still earns from the passenger, and travellers benefit from direct connectivity to Vienna Airport, bypassing city traffic. The integration is supported by real-time data sharing between ÖBB and the airline, enabling efficient transfers and contingency planning in case of delays. Here too, the airline has not ‘lost’ the route – it has simply reconfigured it.Critics of these arrangements argue that airlines are merely outsourcing emissions while claiming climate virtue. But that view ignores the complexity of intermodal travel and the extent to which co-ordination is required to make it work. The economic structures underpinning these partnerships are carefully negotiated: Who gets what share of the fare, who bears the risk of missed connections, how loyalty benefits are applied. These are not marketing gimmicks – they are real, evolving frameworks for managing mobility in an era of constrained growth.And beyond Europe, the model is attracting attention. In Japan, where rail and air coexist at the highest level of sophistication, All Nippon Airways and Japan Railways have long co-ordinated timetables and ground services. In the United States, the previous administration’s green transport agenda has prompted conversations around better linking Amtrak services with airline hubs. Alaska Airlines recently launched a baggage transfer pilot with Amtrak, while American Airlines has begun testing through-ticketing on select northeast routes. The speed and density of US rail may be decades behind Europe, but the commercial logic is identical.At the heart of this shift is a simple truth: Governments want fewer emissions, passengers want convenience, and airlines need to be part of the solution. For an industry that has spent decades building identity around jet engines and global reach, handing over parts of the journey to rail is a significant cultural adjustment. But it is increasingly being seen not as a surrender, but as a strategic rebalancing. One that allows airlines to reduce exposure to volatile fuel prices, slot constraints, and environmental taxation – while still playing a dominant role in the total journey.For rail operators, the benefit is equally compelling. By tapping into the global distribution systems of airlines, they gain access to international passengers who would not otherwise think to book a train. The visibility of a TGV or ICE train on an airline website expands their commercial reach dramatically, particularly for travellers from markets like North America or Asia where rail is not always front of mind. It also boosts occupancy on underused services and allows rail companies to justify investment in premium offerings such as first-class lounges and onboard dining – offerings that align well with the expectations of business-class fliers.As Europe eyes stricter emissions targets for 2030 and 2050, and as airlines work to decarbonise long-haul fleets via SAF, hydrogen and next-gen aircraft, the short-term gains of intermodality become even more critical. It buys time. It reduces emissions today. And crucially, it does not require new infrastructure – just better co-operation.The blending of air and rail is not a silver bullet. There are challenges, particularly in standardising systems, aligning customer service models, and navigating national regulations. But as climate legislation sharpens, and as public pressure mounts on aviation to do more, the most pragmatic carriers will not be those who deny the need for change, but those who embrace partnership. If done right, the model can deliver a rare thing in transport: A political win, a financial win, and a passenger win – all on the same ticket.The author is an aviation analyst. X handle: @AlexInAir

In 2024 there was a significant turning point for the international airline industry as air travel surpassed pre-Covid-19 levels, with full-year traffic 3.8% above 2019 levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).As the industry recovers, a growing share of the international business is being taken by Middle Eastern airlines and airports. The wealth of the region, its strategic location close to three continents, and the ambitions of its airlines, are all factors. The European industry faces higher environmental taxes, and the continent’s airlines cannot fly over Russian airspace owing to the Ukraine war. Also, western Europe is densely populated, making airport expansion difficult.The Covid-19 pandemic was financially devastating for the airline industry, it is recovering strongly, especially in the Middle East, with Qatar Airways announcing a major new order from BoeingQatar Airways has grown in scale and reputation in recent years. In an interview in March, Badr Mohammed al-Meer, the chief executive, said that the airline was in talks with manufacturers with a view, to increasing capacity from 50mn passengers per year to 80mn by the end of the decade. It would be followed by a deliberate pause in further expansion. Capacity at the Hamad International Airport, Doha, would be reached by then.In mid-May, Qatar Airways confirmed a major order with Boeing – for a potential total of 210 Boeing 777X and 787 Dreamliners in a deal worth $96bn, announced during President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf.Also in May, Qatar Airways Group reported its strongest ever financial results, posting annual profits of QR7.85bn ($2.15bn) for the 2024-25 fiscal year. This was an increase of more than QR1.7bn ($500mn) compared with 2023-24. Qatar Airways Cargo, a division within the group, registered a 17% increase in revenue.Badr Mohammed al-Meer said in his March Financial Times interview that the quality of service among some other carriers had deteriorated as they expanded rapidly, drawing attention to the importance of customer service in the industry. Many airlines are looking to increase the strength and reliability of Wi-Fi connections for passengers, for example by using the Starlink satellite network. As things stand, Internet connection tends to be weak and erratic for those in the air.This commitment to service and the latest communications technology implies that Qatar Airways will need to operate the newest aircraft on its routes. Given its large fleet, and the fact that a well-serviced aircraft can operate for 20 years, this opens the opportunity of opening a leasing arm, with older aircraft leased to budget airlines. Doha is a conveniently based hub for a leasing company, with the highest standard of aircraft maintenance.In aviation, one area where customer service is set to be improved through technology is by using robotics and AI to smooth security clearance at airports. Having to empty cabin luggage and pockets is an inconvenience for travellers, but advances in AI allow the ability to identify banned items via x-ray images, while facial recognition can spot individuals on watch lists.One factor behind the resurgence of air travel may be the sudden de-prioritising of sustainability and net zero as business issues – although development of renewable technologies will continue. But while a zero-carbon emissions commercial flight is still a few years off, energy efficiency, which reduces emissions, has long been a major factor in determining whether an aircraft is commercially viable. Engine manufacturers have made significant progress in improving fuel efficiency.Two high-profile, innovative aircraft – Concorde in the 1970s and the super-jumbo Airbus A380 in the 2000s and 2010s – were sold at far lower levels than the manufacturers hoped, in part because of lower energy efficiency compared with competitors and, in the case of Concorde, concerns over noise and air pollution.These major investments may appear to be strategic errors by the manufacturers, but this is to misunderstand the nature of the industry. Designing and building a commercial aircraft costs billions of dollars in investment, while the design, testing and manufacturing process takes years. It is impossible to anticipate market conditions several years ahead. Disruptions such as the financial crisis of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020-2022 cannot be anticipated. Both had a seismic impact on travel, especially business travel.For example, the double-deck, four-engined A380 super-jumbo is relatively cost-efficient on a per-passenger basis, but only if the airline fills all or nearly all of the seats. As an airline executive once observed, if demand for a certain route is less than hoped for, you cannot send the top deck somewhere else. Production of the aircraft ceased in 2021. Efficient, twin-engined aircraft now dominate the market, including for many longer routes.For decades, Boeing and Airbus have been the major suppliers to the industry, and they continue to dominate. The Brazilian company Embraer is a significant manufacturer of mid-sized aircraft. Will this pattern change in the future? Chinese car companies have emerged as global players, especially in the EV market, and a similar development could emerge in aviation. The Chinese state-owned aircraft manufacturer Comac has civil aircraft in commercial use. The narrow-body jet airliner C919 is being flown by Chinese carriers on domestic routes, and is undergoing certification for international routes. The wide-body C929 is in development.It would be sensible to anticipate growing market share for Comac in the coming years.The centre of gravity of the aviation industry is undergoing something of a shift from Europe and America towards Asia, and global growth is likely to continue – but, as with any industry, it is difficult to predict future disruptions and other developments.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

Despite being preventable and curable, malaria has continued to claim African lives. In 2023, the continent accounted for around 95% of the 597,000 deaths from malaria worldwide, 76% of which were children under the age of five.But eliminating this scourge, which impedes development goals and realisation of the African Union’s Agenda 2063, is within reach. Nine AU member countries – Algeria, Cabo Verde, Egypt, Lesotho, Libya, Mauritius, Morocco, the Seychelles, and Tunisia – have become malaria-free, owing to sustained political commitment and well-targeted public investment in primary health care and disease surveillance and case management. African countries with a higher malaria burden should heed their example.Algeria, for example, invested in effective vector control through indoor residual spraying, universal healthcare access for malaria diagnosis and treatment, and rapid outbreak-response mechanisms. Cabo Verde’s strategic malaria-elimination plan involved a multisectoral approach, whereby the government worked closely with local communities and international organisations. Egypt’s multipronged strategy included, among other things, robust training programs for primary health workers. Implementing these co-ordinated interventions required the political will and, crucially, increased domestic financing.Overall, Africa’s efforts to control malaria – particularly through the use of insecticide-treated nets, indoor spraying, and seasonal chemoprevention (which involves giving children a monthly course of antimalarial medicines) – have driven a notable decline in malaria deaths on the continent, from 805,000 in 2000 to 569,000 in 2023. (The Covid-19 pandemic, coupled with the emergence of partial resistance to the well-established malaria medicine artemisinin, caused a brief uptick, to 598,000, in 2020.)But these gains are fragile, particularly as new mosquito variants emerge, insecticide resistance grows, climate change worsens, humanitarian crises become more frequent, and, perhaps most importantly, the global malaria-funding gap widens. In 2023, only $4bn was mobilised for malaria elimination, far below the $8.3bn annual target, and a slight drop from the $4.1bn raised in 2022. The problem is even more acute in Africa, where external health aid has declined by a whopping 70% between 2021 and 2025. Moreover, most African countries devote less than 10% of their national budgets to the health sector – well below the 15% target set by the 2001 Abuja Declaration.Given the uncertain future of foreign aid, African governments must recognise malaria as a development priority and invest more in efforts to control and eliminate it. That means leveraging untapped resources, including the more than $95bn in annual remittances from the African diaspora. Innovative financing instruments such as diaspora bonds could support the continent’s public-health agenda. Solidarity levies on tobacco, alcohol, mobile transactions, and airline tickets could also generate billions of dollars for health services. And scaling up national health-insurance schemes will be required to expand access to malaria prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.Blended finance can unlock private capital for malaria-related research and development, as well as local manufacturing of therapeutics. With Africa’s health-care market projected to be worth $259bn by 2030, policymakers should capitalise on this opportunity to create effective public-private partnerships, advance last-mile delivery solutions, and improve surveillance and vector control.This would be an investment in Africa’s present and future, because every dollar spent on malaria control and elimination generates a remarkable return of $36 in economic growth. A malaria-free population is more likely to access education and contribute to the continent’s socioeconomic development. And let me be clear: investing in the fight to end malaria is not only a health and economic imperative; it is an act of justice. The disease disproportionately affects the poorest and most vulnerable Africans, perpetuating cycles of poverty and inequality.Last year, I joined health ministers from 11 AU member countries with high malaria burdens in committing to accelerate efforts to reduce deaths from the disease. As part of the declaration, we agreed that “no one should die from malaria given the tools and systems available.”The task now is to take concrete action. The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (of which I am director-general) is ready to help develop a continental strategy for ending malaria in Africa by 2040. By making smart investments, implementing well-targeted policies, and deepening collaboration, we can ensure that all African countries become malaria-free within the coming generation. – Project SyndicateJean Kaseya is Director-General of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The number of migrants to the United Kingdom halved in 2024, reaching 431,000 people due to several factors, including stricter restrictions on student and work visas.According to official data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics, the estimated number of migrants last year was 431,000, compared to 860,000 in the previous year ending in December 2023. It is the largest drop in net migration since the COVID-19 pandemic, with long-term net migration declining by about 50 percent.The office reported a noticeable decrease in the number of people arriving with work and study visas, alongside a rise in emigration, particularly among those holding such visas.The previous government had tightened the requirements for applicants seeking these types of visas, including setting higher salary thresholds and denying them the ability to bring family members. Immigration has since become a contentious political issue in the UK, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer unveiling new immigration policies earlier this month, vowing to finally take back control of the country’s borders.The measures included reducing the number of foreign care workers and doubling the period migrants must wait before qualifying for permanent residency. New powers were also introduced to allow for the deportation of foreign criminals.Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who voted in favor of the UK remaining in the European Union, now faces renewed pressure to address immigration following gains made by the anti-immigration Reform Party in recent local elections.