Search - covid 19

US President Donald Trump’s ongoing public pressure on the Federal Reserve marks a striking challenge to central bank independence in a developed economy, a necessary safeguard to set interest rates based on the economy’s needs.In the US, the Fed’s independence has largely been respected by lawmakers in the modern era.But for months, Trump has repeatedly criticised Fed Chair Jerome Powell for keeping interest rates steady. Trump, who wants rates cut, has vowed to replace Powell - whose term as chair ends in 2026 - with someone more compliant.Late on Monday, Trump moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook following allegations that she falsified mortgage documents, a dramatic escalation in the president’s battle for more control over the US central bank that unnerved investors.The Fed’s independence traces its roots to the Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951, which separated monetary policy, the management of money supply, from fiscal policy, government decisions about taxation and spending. That ended a period in which the central bank was pressured by the US Treasury to keep interest rates artificially low.The Fed sets interest rates without needing approval from the president or Congress. While it is accountable to lawmakers and its leadership is appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, the long, staggered terms of the Board of Governors and the chair help insulate the Fed from short-term political pressures.While presidents over the years have privately expressed frustration to the Fed leadership over the level of interest rates, they generally have refrained from publicly criticising the central bank.In the decades since the Fed gained independence, other central banks around the world have gained similar autonomy in setting rates free of political interference.The most common argument for independence is that it allows monetary policy experts to make decisions that prioritise long-term economic stability over short-term political gains.But following the 2008 financial crisis, critics accused central banks of having failed to anticipate the collapse of the housing bubble.Central banks again became a lightning rod for criticism after the inflation crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic forced them to escalate interest rates in 2022.Critics accused them of missing the initial inflation buildup and then being too slow to respond as living costs soared.More recently, as economic growth has slowed, central bankers have come under political pressure to bring rates down.The end result has been renewed scrutiny of the judgment of officials, their accountability to executive and legislative branches of governments, and the transparency of their decision-making processes.Investors value the Fed’s status as an independent organisation. Without it, the central bank’s pledge to keep inflation in check lacks credibility.In the US, the Supreme Court has shielded Fed officials from being directly removed by the president without cause, which has quieted Trump’s threats to fire Powell.Yet the president is able to put his stamp on the central bank by nominating new people to vacancies.The Federal Reserve’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole last week also highlighted the political pressures weighing on the Fed.Global central bankers gathered at the US mountain resort over the weekend were starting to fear that the political storm surrounding the Fed may engulf them too.If the world’s most powerful central bank were to yield to that pressure, or Trump finds a playbook for removing its members, a dangerous precedent would be set from Europe to Japan, where established norms for the independence of monetary policy may then come under new attack from local politicians.A scenario in which the Fed sees its ability to counter inflation is jeopardised by a loss of independence could be taken as a direct threat to their own standing and to economic stability more broadly.

Qatar has made significant achievements in food security and self-sufficiency over the past years in many basic food products, most notably self-sufficiency in the production of fresh dairy products and poultry.The country’s efforts to meet its needs for these basic products aim to reduce the dependence on imports from foreign markets and to mitigate its exposure to the risks of disruptions to global supply chains and price fluctuations in global commodity markets.The private sector plays a key role in supporting Qatar’s food security, according to private sector representatives, speaking exclusively to Qatar News Agency (QNA). They emphasised the importance of co-operation and integration between the public and private sectors in achieving the country’s strategic and development goals.In remarks to QNA, Assistant Director of the Food Security Department at the Ministry of Municipality Hamad Hadi al-Hajri said Qatar’s National Food Security Strategy 2030 is primarily based on achieving sustainability in the use of natural resources, through their optimal utilisation and preservation, especially land and water.He pointed out that the strategy aims to boost local production of highly perishable agricultural goods, such as staple vegetables, fresh milk and its derivatives, fresh poultry meat, table eggs, fresh fish, and fresh red meat.As for commodities that can be stored for long periods, including wheat, sugar, rice, edible oils, and frozen poultry, the strategy recommends focusing on building a strategic stockpile to reduce pressure on natural resources and preserve them.These efforts have contributed to a significant increase in local production, thereby strengthening food security and reducing reliance on imports.The Assistant Director of the Food Security Department confirmed that the focus on sustainability and local production has positively impacted self-sufficiency rates for basic food commodities, especially perishable commodities.The fresh dairy and derivatives sector, along with the fresh poultry sector, has achieved a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 98%, covering all local needs for over four years. This outstanding performance is expected to continue, confirming the stability of local production and its efficiency in meeting national demand sustainably.In regards to the strategic vegetable sector; it has achieved remarkable progress, reaching a self-sufficiency rate of 39% in 2024, especially in light of the climatic and environmental challenges. It is worth noting that local production covers most of the demand during the peak production period in winter, particularly for basic vegetables, thus enhancing food security during this time of year and reducing dependence on imports.Concerning table eggs, the self-sufficiency rate has reached 30%, with projects under construction that are expected to contribute in increasing this rate in the coming period. The fresh fish sector has achieved a self-sufficiency rate exceeding 65%, amid efforts to preserve marine stocks by stabilising fishing effort and focusing on expanding aquaculture projects to ensure sustainable production. This is in addition to achieving 14% self-sufficiency in fresh red meat production.Al-Hajri explained that the priorities for the next phase of the National Food Security Strategy 2030 are to foster sustainable agricultural production, enhance adaptation to climate change by adopting more flexible and efficient agricultural practices, and increase self-sufficiency rates in basic commodities.Self-sufficiency plansBy 2030, the strategy plans to achieve 55% self-sufficiency in fresh strategic vegetables, 70% in table eggs, 30% in sheep and goat meat, and 80% in fresh fish, while maintaining previously achieved self-sufficiency levels in fresh dairy products and fresh poultry.In terms of water sustainability, the goal is to reduce groundwater extraction for agricultural purposes by 70% and to reduce the amount of water used per ton of crops produced by 40% by 2030.In terms of improving efficiency and reducing food loss, the strategy aims to reduce food waste by 30%, reduce food waste by 50%, address between 55% and 70% of food loss and waste using sustainable solutions, and reducing the number of foodborne illnesses to 24 cases per 100,000 people.He noted that these goals constitute a clear framework for an advanced stage of work toward achieving sustainable and comprehensive food security in Qatar, capable of adapting to future environmental and economic challenges.Pivotal role of private sectorAl-Hajri explained that the Qatari private sector is a key pillar in supporting the state’s efforts to achieve the goals of the National Food Security Strategy. It plays a pivotal role in promoting economic development by providing the necessary investments to develop the food security system and increase production in various sectors such as agriculture, the food industry, and food security-related technologies.He pointed out that the private sector is characterised by its flexibility and capacity for innovation, enabling it to adopt modern solutions and advanced technologies that help promote sustainability and address challenges associated with food security.Furthermore, enhancing co-operation between the public and private sectors is also a key pillar emphasised by the National Food Security Strategy 2030. This co-operation aims to ensure the successful implementation of planned initiatives and activities, particularly in the areas of increasing the efficiency of agricultural production, enhancing the strategic stock of food commodities, and improving supply chains.He indicated the role of the private sector is highlighted through close integration and co-operation with the public sector to achieve the goals of the three pillars of the Food Security Strategy regarding local production and market demand, strategic reserves and warning systems, and international trade and investment.Speaking on the private sector’s contributions, al-Hajri added that it effectively supports the raising of self-sufficiency rates for basic commodities through the implementation of various projects, such as greenhouse projects for growing vegetables, and sheep and goat fattening projects that increase self-sufficiency in red meat, in addition to fish farming projects that maintain sustainable levels of fish stocks and ensure sufficient supplies for local consumption.The private sector also participates actively in strategic food stock projects by managing storage and recycling operations, ensuring the preservation of stock quality and its availability in times of need.Public-private sector partnershipQatar Chamber (QC) Board Member and Chairman of QC’s Food Security and Environment Committee, Mohamed bin Ahmed al-Obaidli, said in a statement to QNA that Qatar has achieved advanced and tangible steps in enhancing food security by adopting a clear strategy and strengthening effective partnerships between the public and private sectors in this vital sector.He pointed out that Qatar’s global standing, thanks to the wise vision of its wise leadership, its active role in international mediation, and its prominent position on the global gas production map, has strengthened its international relations and strategic partnerships with all countries around the world, positively impacting this vital sector. Al-Obaidli noted that the country has accumulated extensive experience during its journey towards self-sufficiency in a number of basic products, such as meat and vegetables, in addition to significant developments in agricultural technology, livestock production projects, and food processing.He stressed the vital role played by the local private sector in enhancing food security and achieving self-sufficiency, especially during times of crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic.He pointed out that the country’s strategic reserve depends on increasing local production, which Qatar has succeeded in achieving in partnership with the private sector, developing supply chains, and strengthening trade relations with friendly countries, resulting in providing all the elements of food security for the entire population.He also noted that the launch of the National Food Security Strategy 2030 marks a pivotal step towards strengthening food security, reflecting the wise leadership’s vision for achieving sustainable development across all economic sectors in line with Qatar National Vision 2030.He pointed out that QC is encouraging the Qatari private sector to engage in food security projects by providing specialised information and studies, and encouraging the establishment of joint ventures with leading international companies in the fields of storage, transportation, and other sectors. The Chamber has received trade delegations from several countries, with the aim of bringing together Qatari companies operating in the food security sector with their counterparts from these investment destinations.The QC board member underscored that the Food Security and Environment Committee organises meetings between investors, business owners, and relevant authorities to study the problems and obstacles facing food security and environment sector, and works to find appropriate solutions. The Committee has also presented a number of initiatives and proposals to support farm owners and increase the competitiveness of local products.Businessman Ali al-Khalaf, emphasised the importance of the private sector’s role and the integration of its efforts with the public sector in achieving Qatar’s food security goals. He reaffirmed the role played by the private sector in serving Qatar’s food security goals under the supervision of relevant government agencies, whether at the level of importing consumer goods or at the level of local agricultural production.He explained that there are regulatory procedures and co-operation between relevant government agencies and various private sector companies, each according to its specialisation in the field of trade, in order to strengthen the partnership between the public and private sectors and support the strategic stock system for food, consumer, and supply goods.Al-Khalaf added that the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, for example, is responsible for supervising and managing the strategic stock and monitoring its adequacy among strategic suppliers and registered traders, thus, it has a direct relationship with the various private sector companies that import, store, and distribute in the local market.

Prices of coconut oil are surging in Asia, where top consumer India leads the charge with a tripling in two years, as supply shortages and booming demand for the nutrient-rich water enclosed within turn the kitchen staple into a premium product.The edible oil is slipping out of the reach of price-conscious consumers, and those accustomed to its distinctive flavour, deeply embedded in regional cuisine, must search harder to find alternatives.“I will switch to the more affordable refined sunflower oil for everyday cooking and save coconut oil for dishes where its flavour is absolutely irreplaceable,” said Leelamma Cherian, who lives in India’s southern state of Kerala.The price surge that began in the second half of 2024 was accelerated by output disruptions across major producer nations from India to Southeast Asia, caused by seasons of lower rainfall, extended heat, and more ravages by pests and disease.Prices in India have nearly tripled in less than two years, to a record Rs423,000 ($4,840) a metric ton, while global prices surged to an all-time high of $2,990 per ton over the same period.A group of producer nations, the International Coconut Community (ICC), says growing demand in the face of production limits will keep second-half global prices in the range of $2,500-2,700, well over the 2023 figure of about $1,000.Coconut oil supplies usually improve in Southeast Asia in the second half, and new season output will help ease prices off records, said a Singapore-based vegetable oil trader.“Still, prices probably won’t drop below $2,000 anytime soon,” he said.A fall below $1,800 a tonne in the next two years was unlikely, he added, pointing to the neglect of plantations and unfavourable weather in recent years as factors likely to delay a broader production recovery, especially at a time when supplies of other similar lauric oils are tight.“While prices are expected to ease gradually, the current rally is likely to establish a new normal.”The price surge also affects unripe green coconuts harvested for their electrolyte-laden water, and products such as copra, milk, and powder, while squeezing makers of shampoo and skincare items, who prize the oil for its high content of lauric acid.Supply squeezeGlobally, coconut oil output is falling as trees age, replanting proves inadequate, and plantations grapple with a shortage of better seed varieties, said Dorab Mistry, a director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International.World coconut oil production was 3.67mn tonnes in 2024-25, with no growth over the past three decades, barring minor annual fluctuations, the US agriculture department says.As weather conditions increasingly swing from hot, dry spells to sudden heavy rains, both extremes disrupt coconut production, said Joe Ling, executive director of Malaysia’s Linaco Group, a leading supplier.These days, at least one producing country is affected — if dry weather is not curtailing output in Indonesia or Malaysia, it is highly likely that typhoons are disrupting production in the Philippines, or vice versa, Ling said.Yields fell in 2023 as the El Niño weather phenomenon brought above-average heat and below-average rains to key growing regions, said a Mumbai-based dealer at a global trading house, who sought anonymity in line with company policy.The shortfall was only reflected in 2024, since coconuts typically need nearly a year to mature after flowering.In the wake of years of underinvestment thanks to low prices, coconut production was further hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, as lockdowns brought a slump in demand and prices.That in turn led farmers to neglect plantations, resulting in lower yields just as demand began to recover when social media influencers drummed up attention to the health benefits of coconut water.Higher demand for the water prompted farmers to harvest coconuts earlier and further narrowed the supply of mature nuts used to make oil and copra.Even at higher prices, the perceived health benefits continue to fuel demand for coconut food products, said Ling of Linaco Group.The rally has led his company to raise prices almost monthly and maintain supplies despite upsetting customers, Ling added.Coconut oil’s premium over rival palm kernel oil, also primarily produced in Asia, has surged to a record $1,000 per tonne, up from the usual $100-$200. Palm kernel oil prices have also risen, climbing 30% this year.Any major shift away from coconut oil could drive up prices of alternatives, including palm kernel oil for industry and palm, soy, and sunflower oils for households.Global demandWhile coconut oil is popular in Asia, demand for copra, coconut cream, and milk is strong in Britain, China, Europe, Malaysia, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates.To capitalise on rising demand, Indonesian farmers are increasingly shipping whole coconuts instead of extracting oil, said Amrizal Idroes, vice chairman of the Indonesian Coconut Processing Industry Association.Indonesia’s coconut oil exports fell 15% between January and June, while shipments of items such as desiccated coconut and endocarp coconut rose by 58% annually, government data showed.Shortages have spurred calls for changes to trade policies that make more oil available at home.In Indonesia, the association urged suspension of coconut exports for six to 12 months to stabilise prices, while in India, the Solvent Extractors’ Association asked New Delhi to allow imports of coconut oil and copra.India regulates imports of coconut oil tightly, with a duty of more than 100% that makes them expensive, and traders required to seek permits from state trading enterprises.Higher prices have spurred farmers to expand planting, with strong seedling demand depleting most nurseries’ stocks this year, said an official of India’s state-run Coconut Development Board, who sought anonymity.But yield from new plantations take four or five years to come in, so prospects are bleak for prices to subside quickly. — Reuters

In July, I took part in a tough sporting challenge, known as Hyrox. This is a fitness race that combines running with functional workouts. It is intense and demanding, involving intervals in which eight runs of 1km are alternated with a tough challenge such as successive burpees or heavy lifting. The distance and the events are standardised, allowing for direct competition at each event, and comparisons to be made across different events. It is open to people of all abilities. The winner of the pro category receives an award of up to $7,500.This year, for the first time, it introduced an Adaptive category for athletes with physical challenges. I had wanted to take part last year, but some of the exercises were not possible for me, given the amputation of some of my fingers following an accident in the Himalayas in 2021. I was permitted to complete the ‘Farmer’s Carry’, which normally involves walking with two heavy kettle bells, carrying only one, while for the exercise involving pulling a sled with a rope I was permitted to complete half the usual distance. There were attentive, trained assistants for the Adaptive category, and generally the management and logistics are excellent. Within the Hyrox venue there are specialists such as physiotherapists.Taking part in a tough multi-disciplinary sporting contest helped me test my fitness, and boost my mood. It’s one of a growing range of branded mass-participation sporting events, the demand for which looks set to grow and growHyrox is a young event, begun in 2017, but growing rapidly, reaching $140mn turnover and with a presence in 11 countries. Around 650,000 people took part in 2024, compared with 650 at the first event in Germany seven years earlier. Events are heavily over-subscribed – securing a place has been described as like trying to get a ticket for a Taylor Swift concert.Its popularity chimes with strong social trends among young people. In a 2024 survey by the consultancy McKinsey, 56% of people in the Generation Z age group said fitness was a ‘very high’ priority, compared with 40% of respondents overall. Many seek immersive experiences that combine fitness with social engagement and memorable moments.Hyrox fits well with an emerging recognition that hybrid training – combining strength work with cardiovascular exercise – is the best for all-round fitness. Body builders who do weights but not cardio risk limited mobility and lung capacity, while those who only do running can have a weak core and be prone to injuries such as over-stretched hamstrings. Hybrid training is essential for mountaineering, and once you reach a high-level of all-round fitness, it’s a condition you don’t want to let drop.The Covid-19 pandemic has also spurred increased sporting activity. During lockdowns, many took to running in their allotted hour in the open air, while sales of cycling machines and treadmills soared. Globally the sports events market is growing at around 10% compound annual growth rate. It reached a turnover of $185bn in 2021, projected to grow to $609bn by 2031, according to research by Allied Market Research.The Hyrox business model is smart. There is an entry fee, sponsorship of the events, and branded items such as clothing, energy gels, drinks and so on. Participants are looking for a social, immersive event. You can buy a package of photos of yourself taking part. Participants will post these on social media, so the Hyrox brand gets some promotion for free.When I completed the Hyrox circuit, I found it to be tough. My mountaineering training and experience prepared me well – but it was still quite demanding. The greatest pay-off was the sensation afterwards: I felt great. There is the physical benefit of being fitter, combined with the sense of achievement at overcoming some tough challenges, and the exhilaration of competing alongside other people.Hyrox takes its place in a diverse and growing array of branded mass-participation sporting activities. Tough Mudder involves watery outdoors courses, and involves obstacles, such as scrambling up steep slopes and traversing walls. It was taken over by Spartan Race after it hit financial troubles. Spartan Race events range from the 3-mile Spartan Sprint to the Spartan Ultra. Toughest of all is the Ironman triathlon, which consists of an open water swim of just under 4km, a bicycle ride of 180km, followed by a full marathon (40km), all within a single day.Probably the largest mass participation event is Parkrun, a weekly, Saturday morning 5km run, started in London in 2004 and now in more than 2,300 locations worldwide with around half a million people taking part every week. It has a similar business model to Hyrox: participation is free but there is branded merchandise and commercial sponsorship.Long established are many marathons, half-marathons and 10km runs in towns and cities all around the world, often attracting thousands of participants.An increasing array of organised sporting activities, of varying levels of toughness and competitiveness, ensures that there is a good chance that an event will suit someone who is keen to be active. This sector looks set for continued future growth.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions

Next year will mark the 250th anniversary of the ratification of the Declaration of Independence, the founding document of the United States. But another foundational document, fundamental to our understanding of economics, will reach the same milestone in 2026: Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations. At a time of rapid economic and structural transformation, its insights are worth revisiting.Two stand out. One is that the “invisible hand” of markets efficiently allocates resources, as long as certain conditions – including a stable currency, a degree of trust and moral rectitude among economic actors, and credible property rights – are in place. Externalities (the unpriced impact of an entity’s activities on others) and informational gaps and asymmetries diminish the invisible hand’s efficiency and performance.The second, arguably more important insight is that an economy’s efficiency and productivity are enhanced by the “division of labour,” known today as “specialisation.” A specialised economy is powered by various pockets of knowledge and expertise, which take advantage of economies of scale, learning, and enhanced incentives for innovation. Since specialisation does not work in the absence of a reasonably efficient method of exchange, it depends on Smith’s invisible hand. As specialisation advances, so does the economy’s complexity.As Smith noted, however, specialisation is limited by the “extent of the market”: a small market cannot create enough demand to sustain a wide variety of specialised businesses. That is why improvements in transportation and communication linkages, which lower the cost of addressing an expanding market, have enabled greater specialisation.Another important potential constraint on specialisation is the risk it inevitably generates. Since an economy’s patterns of specialisation are structural, they take time to change. So, if the trading system is disrupted, or certain skills or industries are rendered obsolete (such as by technological innovations or shifting demand patterns), individuals, firms, and even entire economies must undergo a transition, which may prove difficult and prolonged.In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, as economies became more specialised, various policies, institutions, and conditions – from antitrust to social safety nets to the maintenance of macroeconomic and monetary stability – gradually emerged to mitigate the associated risks. But these were largely national-level solutions, and, after World War II, specialisation went global.What began as a means of supporting the postwar economic recovery soon became a comprehensive transformation. Colonial empires were abandoned, along with their asymmetric economic structures, and mercantilism gave way to free trade. Add to that advances in transportation and communications technology, accelerated by the digital revolution, and the first constraint on specialisation – the “extent of the market” – was radically loosened.For developing economies, this was a game-changer. Given their low per capita GDP, they could not generate sufficient domestic demand to benefit from the efficiency and productivity gains of specialisation. But once they gained access to foreign markets and technologies, they capitalised on their comparative advantages and achieved rapid GDP growth. Increasing specialisation was thus accompanied by a geographic shift in economic activity.The resulting structural disruptions outpaced the evolution of governance structures capable of mitigating the proliferating risks. For a while, this did not seem to matter much: the advanced economies, especially the US, still underwrote international economic governance, making the rules and sponsoring the institutions that kept the system running. But, eventually, the shift in global economic power reached a tipping point: the demand constraint on specialisation was loosened to the point that the risk constraint was kicking in. As the structural disruptions grew more pronounced, popular frustration deepened across the advanced economies, fuelling a social and political backlash. Then, a proliferating series of shocks – escalating climate impacts, the Covid-19 pandemic, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and rising geopolitical tensions – reinforced this shift. Donald Trump’s return to the White House, with his “America first” foreign policy and preference for bilateral dealmaking, cemented it.As a result, many countries now view economic security as inextricably linked to national security: while specialisation remains intact within economies, it is being partly reversed at the international level. Although it is impossible to know precisely where this process will lead, one can expect adverse consequences for productivity and growth – in effect the price of increased resilience and reduced risk. Countries with less capacity to generate domestic demand – whether because of low per capita GDP or small population size – will suffer the most, with the extent of their losses depending on how much access to global markets they retain.But Smith’s model of specialisation may soon face an even more fundamental shift. Recall that it is based on the creation of pockets of specific knowledge and expertise that are not easily acquired or transferred. But generative AI models, among their many effects, now appear to be on course to deliver expertise in almost any area, to anyone who wants it, at very low cost.The potential consequences are far-reaching. If expertise becomes less scarce, the price it commands will fall. Only knowledge and skills that remain difficult to transfer – say, because they cannot easily be described or documented – will increase in value. In other words, a significant share of human capital might not be worth nearly as much at some point in the future as it was in the past 250 years, but another share could be worth much more. A question that must now be investigated is how big each of these shares will be.Nearly 250 years after Smith introduced the concept of specialisation, it remains a key feature of our economies. But it has also changed profoundly. It is in partial retreat in the global economy, as the perceived risks of interdependence rise. Artificial intelligence will probably not reduce specialisation, but by altering the knowledge-transfer equation, it may change the relative prices of the human capital associated with various types of specialised knowledge. — Project SyndicateMichael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Emeritus Professor of Economics and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University and a co-author (with Mohamed A El-Erian, Gordon Brown, and Reid Lidow) of Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World.

As Scottie Scheffler prepares to put the finishing touches on another Tiger-like season, he reflected Wednesday on a critical lesson he learned from Tiger Woods.“I’ve only played one round of tournament golf with Tiger Woods, and it completely changed the way I look at how I play tournaments,” Scheffler told reporters at Atlanta’s East Lake Golf Club, where he will attempt to defend his Tour Championship this week against 29 of the PGA Tour’s top talents.Scheffler was paired with Woods during the final round of the 2020 Masters, which had been moved from April to November and was played without spectators due to the Covid-19 pandemic.Scheffler remembered how Woods responded after carding a 10 at the par-13 12th hole at Augusta on that Sunday. Woods birdied five of the last six holes, displaying a level of focus and competitiveness that has stuck with Scheffler throughout his own reign as the world’s No 1 golfer.“(I) was like, what’s this guy still playing for? He’s won the Masters four or five times. Best finish he’s going to have is like 20th place at this point,” Scheffler said.“I just admired the intensity that he brought to each round, and that’s something that I try to emulate. If I’m going to take time to come out here each week - like it’s not an easy thing to play a golf tournament. If I’m going to take a week off, I might as well just stay home. I’m not going to come out here to take a week off. If I’m playing in a tournament, I’m going to give it my all.“That’s really all it boils down to.”Scheffler, 29, continued his remarkable season with a victory last week at the BMW Championship. Including his wins at the PGA Championship and The Open Championship, he became the first PGA Tour golfer since Woods in 2006-07 with five or more titles in back-to-back seasons.Scheffler has 18 career wins on the PGA Tour. He was the Rookie of the Year in 2020 but didn’t win his first tourney until 2022.“The reason I felt like I hadn’t won yet is I hadn’t put myself in position enough times. I’d only played in a couple final groups. I always found myself just a little bit on the outside looking in, and that’s one of the things I learned from playing with Tiger,” Scheffler said.“It was like, we’re in 20th place or whatever going into Sunday at the Masters, Tiger has won five Masters, he’s got no chance of winning the tournament.“Then we showed up on the first hole and I was watching him read his putt, and I was like, ‘Oh, my gosh, this guy is in it right now.’“That was something that I just thought about for a long time. I felt like a change I needed to make was bringing that same intensity to each round and each shot. And I feel like the reason I’ve had success in these tournaments is - I don’t hit the ball the furthest. The things that I do on the golf course, other people can do. I think it’s just the amount of consistency and the intensity that I bring to each round of golf is not taking shots off, not taking rounds off, not taking tournaments off.”The lessons learned in Augusta in 2020 have Scheffler in position this week to do something even Tiger Woods did not accomplish: becoming the first to win back-to-back Fed Ex Cups.

The UK economy has stumbled from crisis to crisis over the past decade, including the divisive 2016 public vote to leave the European Union, the pandemic and then a bout of inflation that has seen prices in Britain rise more than in France and Italy.The population of the UK rose about 5% between 2015 and 2023, with official projections suggesting a further 1mn people have been added since then.UK economy outperformed other Group of Seven nations with growth of 1.1% in the first half of the year, yet did slightly worse when adjusted for the population.Per capita output was barely higher in the second quarter than before the pandemic, whereas the economy as a whole is about 5% larger.Business investment fell by 4% from the first quarter and household spending growth was weak.The UK economy has lost its edge over Italy and slipped further behind France over the past decade, according to per head gross domestic product figures that reveal a stark underperformance fuelled by a population surge, high inflation and tepid growth.The findings will ring alarm bells in Keir Starmer’s government, which is looking at how much the economy generates for each resident rather than aggregate output as a gauge of the living standards it has pledged to improve.Italy, long a symbol of European economic stagnation, has almost completely closed a gap with the UK that was around $4,000 per head just before the 2016 Brexit vote, International Monetary Fund data based on purchasing power parities show.Back then, the UK was also roughly level with France. Now, with a per capita output of $54,556, Britain is estimated to be just $500 ahead of Italy and almost $1,700 behind France.Britain’s economy is still suffering from long Covid, says some experts.The unmatched spike in public debt, the 1.2mn extra people on sickness benefits, the record tax burden, the bulging size of the state and — above all — weak economic growth are the lasting symptoms of decisions taken during the pandemic.While a post-pandemic burst of inflation has abated across much of the developed world, Britain is still stuck with the highest price growth among big western economies.Granted, consumer price inflation (CPI) is now far below where it was in late 2022, when it maxed out at 11.1%. That’s after the Bank of England aggressively ramped up benchmark interest rates from almost zero in late 2021 to 5.25% in 2023, sucking money out of the economy by hammering the purchasing power of borrowers.But it is back up again, with consumer prices climbing by 3.6% in June, up from 2.6% in March, leaving the bank with plenty of work to finally reach its 2% target, according to a Bloomberg report.Many economists say they believe Brexit has its fingerprints on the inflation troubles.Research by the London School of Economics suggested that a third of UK food price inflation from the end of 2019 to March 2023 was caused by Brexit because extra border costs added £7bn to grocery bills.Cautious British households are more inclined to save money than at any point since the run-up to the global financial crisis, according to a recent survey of consumer sentiment.Amid mounting job losses and rising inflation in the UK, GfK said its overall consumer confidence index slipped one point to minus 19 in July, partially reversing an improvement the previous month.It adds to growing evidence of the economic impact of the Labour government’s tax-raising budget and a spate of increases to household bills.Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is heading into a difficult autumn budget as economists make a common prediction: tax rises are in store.

Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is expected to make further inroads in Qatar’s financial landscape with more banks set to sign strategic pact with fintechs providing "growth enabling" services, according to experts."The lenders are seized of its (BNPL) opportunities in the banking space. Fintechs are enablers than competitors, there is a symbiotic relationship between the two," said a top official of a private sector bank, which is planning to enter in a strategic relationship with BNPL provider.This symbiotic relationship leverages the strengths of both entities, leading to a "win-win" situation, according to him.The streamlining and strengthening of operations at the Qatar Credit Bureau have also helped fintechs offering BNPL services to undertake quick due diligence regarding customers, the official said.Recently, Qatar Islamic Bank tied up with PayLater to deliver Shariah-compliant BNPL services to customers and merchants in Qatar, providing flexible financing solutions that promote financial inclusion and support the growth of the nation’s digital economy.BNPL, which is gaining momentum in the Middle East and North Africa region, is essentially a short term (no more than 12 months) interest free credit facility that allows a customer to split its transaction amount into instalment payments to allow repayment over a period of time.The maximum credit per customer at any point of time has been fixed at QR25,000, as per the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) regulations for the sector.The tech-savvy consumer base, the quest to explore the latest in online shopping and the alternative payment solutions with flexibility are giving the required thrust (for the BNPL segment), said the bank official.The QCB had approved five companies – Spendwisor; Qaiver FinTech; HSAB for Payment Solutions; Mihuru; and Pay Later Website Services – as a first cohort for the BNPL service; awarding entry into its exclusive sandbox programme.The banking regulator had in 2023 issued the BNPL regulations following the launch of its fintech strategy. The objectives of the BNPL regulations are to ensure that customers are provided with adequate protections without unduly impacting the availability and cost of BNPL products and services, to protect the rights of BNPL customers from unfair lending practices, and to encourage the development of the consumer credit industry.Terming that BNPL isn’t a trend — it’s a shift in mindset; Mohammed al-Delaimi, SkipCash’s founder and managing director, had said it introduces financial flexibility and responsible consumption, particularly in markets that have traditionally been underserved or cash-dependent.For small businesses, it means increased sales and better customer retention, while for consumers, it’s a lifeline to spread out essential purchases without falling into debt traps, he had said.The changing consumer preferences and the growing e-commerce market are paving the way for strong growth, the bank official said, adding the rise in e-commerce deals during the Covid-19 lockdowns led to a significant increase in the use of BNPL services.Snoonu had earlier this year joined forces with PayLater to enhance financial flexibility and reshape the digital shopping experience for consumers. Beema recently tied up with PayLater.LuLu AI, the investment arm of LuLu Financial Holdings, had announced a strategic investment in PayLater Qatar.

Manufacturers like US lawnmower maker The Toro Company are not panicking at the prospect of US President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs. Despite five years of dramatic supply disruptions, from the Covid pandemic to today’s trade wars, Toro is resisting any temptation to stack its warehouses to the rafters.“We are at probably pre-pandemic inventory levels,” says its chief supply-chain manager, Kevin Carpenter, looking relaxed in front of a whiteboard at his office in Minneapolis. “I mean 2019. I think everybody will be at a 2019 level.” Among US manufacturers, inventories have roller-coasted this year as they rushed to beat Trump’s deadlines for tariff hikes, only to see them repeatedly delayed. But since their post-pandemic expansion, inventories have mostly contracted, according to US Institute for Supply Management data. Instead, “just in time” inventory management — which aims to increase efficiency and reduce waste by ordering goods only as they are needed — is back.But how can firms run lean inventories even as tariffs fluctuate, export bans come out of the blue, and conflict rages? One of the answers, they say, is artificial intelligence.Carpenter says he uses AI to digest the daily stream of news that could impact Toro’s business, from Trump’s latest social media posts to steel prices, into a custom-made podcast that he listens to each morning.His team also uses generative AI to sieve an ocean of data and to suggest when and how many components to buy from whom.It is a boom industry. Spending on software that includes generative AI for supply chains, capable of learning and even performing tasks on its own, could hit $55bn by 2029, up from $2.7bn now, according to US research firm Gartner, driven in part by global uncertainties.HYPE“The tool just puts up in front of you: ‘I think you can take 100 tonnes of this product from this plant to transfer it to that plant. And you just hit accept if that makes sense (to you),” McKinsey supply chain consultant Matt Jochim said.The biggest providers of overall supply chain software by revenue are Germany’s SAP, US firms Oracle, Coupa and Microsoft and Blue Yonder, a unit of Panasonic, according to Gartner.Generative AI is in its infancy, with most firms still piloting it spending modest amounts, industry experts say.Those investments can climb to tens of millions of dollars when deployed at scale, including the use of tools known as AI agents, which make their own decisions and often need costly upgrades to data management and other IT systems, they said.In commenting for this article, SAP, Oracle, Coupa, Microsoft and Blue Yonder described strong growth for generative AI solutions for supply chains without giving numbers.At US supply chain consultancy GEP, which sells AI tools like this, Trump’s tariffs are helping to drive demand.“The tariff volatility has been big,” says GEP consultant Mukund Acharya, an expert in retail industry supply chains.SAP said the uncertainty was driving technology take-up. “That’s how it was during the financial crisis, Brexit and Covid. And it’s what we’re seeing now,” Richard Howells, SAP vice president and supply chain specialist, said in a statement.An AI agent can sift real-time news feeds on changing tariff scenarios, assess contract renewal dates and a myriad of other data points and come up with a suggested plan of action.But supply chain experts warn of AI hype, saying a lot of money will be wasted on a vain hope that AI can work miracles.“AI is really a powerful enabler for supply chain resilience, but it’s not a silver bullet,” says Minna Aila, communications chief at Finnish crane-maker Konecranes and member of a business board that advises the OECD on issues including supply chain resilience. “I’m still looking forward to the day when AI can predict terrorist attacks that are at sea, for instance.” Konecranes’ logistics partners are deploying AI on more mundane data, like weather forecasts.The company makes port cranes that are up to 106m (348ft) high when assembled. When shipping them, AI marries weather forecasts with data like bridge heights to optimise the route.“To ship those across oceans, you do have to take into consideration weather,” Aila says.RISING COSTSBy keeping inventories low, firms can bolster profit margins that are under pressure from rising costs. Every component or finished product sitting on a shelf is capital tied up, incurring finance and storage costs and at risk of obsolescence.McKinsey has been surveying supply-chain executives since the pandemic. Its most recent survey showed that respondents relying on bigger inventory to cushion disruptions fell to 34% last year from 60% in 2022. Early responses from its upcoming 2025 survey suggest a similar picture, Jochim said.Gartner supply chain analyst Noha Tohamy says that without AI, companies would be slower to react and be more likely to be drawn into building up inventories.“When supply chain organisations don’t have that visibility and don’t really understand the uncertainty, we go for inventory buffering,” Tohamy says.But AI agents won’t put supply chain managers out of work, not yet, consultants say. Humans still need to make strategic and big tactical decisions, leaving AI agents to do more routine tasks like ordering and scheduling production maintenance.Toro supply chain chief Carpenter says that without AI, supply chain managers might need to run bigger teams as well.Is he worried that AI is coming for his job one day? “I hope it doesn’t take it until my kids get through college!”— Reuters

The US national debt has exceeded $37 trillion for the first time in the country's history, highlighting the rapid expansion of federal borrowing amid mounting criticism of the government's expansive spending policies.Data released by the US Treasury Department on Tuesday showed gross national debt reaching $37.005 trillion. According to the Congressional Budget Office, federal debt could climb to $54 trillion within a decade, driven by rising healthcare costs, an aging population, and the impact of elevated interest rates, which are increasing debt service burdens.Credit rating agencies have warned of the deteriorating fiscal outlook. In mid-2023, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US's long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+, citing worsening financial conditions and persistent political gridlock. In May 2025, Moody's followed suit, cutting its rating from Aaa to Aa1 and projecting that interest payments could surge from 9% of federal revenues today to 30% by 2035.Federal debt has surged in recent years, fueled by massive pandemic relief and stimulus measures under successive administrations. The Biden administration added about $4.8 trillion by September 2022, including $1.85 trillion for the American Rescue Plan and $370 billion for infrastructure projects. Under the former Trump administration, the debt grew by $7.5 trillion during his first term, with the COVID-19 crisis pushing the fiscal 2020 deficit to a record $3.1 trillion, followed by more than $2.7 trillion in 2021.The scale of the increase is striking: four decades ago, US federal debt totaled $907 billion. Today, interest payments in the current fiscal year -- which began in October -- have already outstripped combined spending on Medicare and the defense budget.

For many developing countries, the global economic landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years. Lower growth, disrupted supply chains, reduced aid flows, and heightened financial-market volatility represent significant headwinds. Underpinning these changes is a fundamental restructuring, driven by the developed world, of the postwar economic and financial order. Against this background, a handful of factors are becoming critically important for the current and future well-being of developing countries – and for the fate of multilateral institutions.For much of the period following World War II, the global economic and financial order operated as a core-periphery construct, with the US at its centre. The US provided global public goods, led multi-country policy co-ordination, and acted as a crisis manager, in accordance with a widely accepted set of rules and standards. The end goal was eventual convergence, securing an ever more integrated and prosperous world economy.But three factors undermined this order. First, insufficient attention was paid to increasingly destabilising distributional outcomes, leading to widespread alienation and marginalisation within politically influential segments of society. Instead of continuing to influence politics, economics became subservient to it.Second, the existing order struggled to integrate rapidly expanding large developing countries. The most notable example is China, whose immense economy but relatively low per capita income created a persistent misalignment between its domestic development priorities and its new global responsibilities. The world could no longer absorb smoothly the external consequences of China’s economic strategy, generating tensions that international governance structures have struggled to resolve.The third factor was the transformation of the US from a stabilising force to a source of volatility. Contributing to this development were the 2008 global financial crisis (which originated in the US), the weaponisation of tariffs against China in 2018, and the increasing use of payment-system sanctions. It accelerated in recent years with the failure to ensure the equitable global distribution of Covid-19 vaccines, the “uber-weaponisation” of tariffs against friends and foes alike, the dismantling of America’s foreign-aid system, and continued indifference to devastating humanitarian crises and repeated violations of international law.While the traditional core-periphery model is inherently ill-equipped to handle all this, there is nothing to replace it, resulting in a bumpy journey toward an unclear destination. Despite this, developing countries have navigated the changing landscape relatively well so far. Their success can be attributed largely to hard-won policy achievements, including the strengthening of macroeconomic frameworks and institutions in recent decades.But to maintain this positive trajectory in an increasingly challenging external environment, developing countries must affirm four key policy priorities. The first is to preserve macroeconomic stability while aggressively addressing any structural and financial vulnerabilities, including shallow domestic financial markets, weak regulatory frameworks, and governance deficits.The second priority is to strengthen international links that boost resilience, improve agility, and expand optionality. This requires coordinated, multiyear efforts to harmonise regulations, foster regional financial integration, and build trade infrastructure.Third, developing countries should prepare themselves to exploit the new opportunities created by innovations – from productivity enhancements in traditional sectors to improvements in social sectors where investment in human capital has the highest returns. AI, in particular, holds immense potential to revolutionise medicine, education, and agriculture, which could help these countries leapfrog traditional development stages. Building a supportive ecosystem requires investing in digital infrastructure, cultivating a skilled workforce, and developing an innovation-friendly regulatory environment.Lastly, with many US assets appearing overvalued and US Treasuries becoming more volatile, the small but strategically important subgroup of developing countries with high levels of foreign reserves and substantial financial wealth in dollars is being pushed to reconsider their holdings’ traditional US overweight. This process will inevitably be protracted and complex, and will require careful asset disaggregation, revised asset-allocation methodologies, and new investment mindsets that look beyond conventional safe havens.Multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and regional development banks have a crucial role to play in helping their members pursue such an approach. To become trusted advisers, these institutions must get better at compiling and disseminating best practices for new and evolving technologies that can improve health, educational, and productivity outcomes, and they must do more to promote these technologies’ uptake. For example, their staff must be equipped to answer questions about interacting with AI agents, leveraging innovations to deliver essential services, and managing the attendant risks.Multilateral institutions should also encourage regional links and projects that facilitate trade, expand cross-border infrastructure, and promote shared resource management. And in a world shaped increasingly by frequent shocks, there is an urgent need to enhance contingency-funding facilities, such as by strengthening risk-sharing tools.Of course, this should not undermine the essential work that these institutions perform in fragile countries. Given the overwhelming evidence that traditional development models struggle in countries with such serious governance and security challenges, this, too, is an area that requires more out-of-the-box thinking.AI and other emerging technologies provide developing countries a rare opportunity to unlock new pathways to inclusive economic growth. But exploiting this historic opportunity is far from automatic. Unless developing countries create the conditions necessary for the efficient and equitable diffusion of such innovations throughout their economies – starting, crucially, with the health and education sectors – they risk falling further behind, causing inequalities within and between countries to deepen, and accelerating the fragmentation of the global order.This commentary is based on the author’s keynote presentation at the 2025 Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics. - Project SyndicateMohamed A El-Erian, President of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, is a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an adviser to Allianz, and Chair of Gramercy Fund Management. He is the author of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse (Random House, 2016) and a co-author (with Gordon Brown, Michael Spence, and Reid Lidow) of Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World (Simon & Schuster, 2023).

Global economy is no longer anchored in a stable inflationary or deflationary regime, but rather navigating a new era marked by structural volatility, according to QNB.While secular deflationary forces – particularly from technological progress, automation, and the digitisation of services – are expected to remain dominant over the long term, they are increasingly being punctuated by short, sharp episodes of inflation driven by supply shocks associated with geopolitical tensions, green transition costs, and policy uncertainty, QNB said in an economic commentary.This evolving landscape is not one of runaway inflation or entrenched deflation, but of heightened sensitivity to shocks, where pricing dynamics vary significantly across region, sectors, and time horizons, it said.Prices changes of key baskets of goods and services are some of the most closely watched metrics in macroeconomics, alongside economic growth.They are crucial indicators of economic health, affecting everything from purchasing power and household confidence to investment decisions and monetary policy.While some level of price appreciation (inflation) is a normal and even desirable feature of a growing economy, both excessive inflation and outright price declines (deflation) can cause significant distortions and long-lasting damage.Moderate inflation, like the one observed during the period of the so-called Great Moderation (1990-2007) in most advanced economies, typically reflects a vibrant economy that delivers well balanced growth. However, when inflation becomes excessive and persistent – as seen in periods of demand overheating, supply shocks, or poorly anchored expectations, such as during the immediate post-Covid pandemic period – it erodes real incomes, compresses profit margins, and destabilises financial markets. It also compels central banks to respond with aggressive policy tightening, which can trigger recessions or financial stress.Conversely, deflation – the sustained decline in the general price level or much lower than normal inflation – is often a symptom of deeper structural weakness, such as depressed demand, financial deleveraging, or demographic stagnation.Falling prices may appear positive on the surface, but they can discourage consumption, delay investment, increase real debt burdens, and trap economies in a vicious cycle of low growth and weak confidence.Japan’s experience in the 1990s and early 2000s remains a cautionary tale of the long-term consequences of entrenched deflation. To a lesser extent, the same is also true for other major economies following the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-08.Interestingly, following a period when pandemic-related supply side shocks triggered much higher than normal inflation, there is little consensus on whether inflation or deflation are going to be major driving forces over the medium- or longer-term.On the one hand, some analysts highlight that one of the key reasons inflation has re-emerged as a central economic concern lies in the unravelling of several structural forces that underpinned the “Great Moderation.”During that time, a confluence of factors helped supress price pressures and stabilise macroeconomic volatility: deepening globalisation fostered cheaper imports and offshoring; relative geopolitical stability ensured open trade routes and capital flows; supply chain integration enabled just-in-time production with minimal inventory costs; and the rise of rational, technocratic politicians and government officials who contributed to anchor economic expectations through credible policies and transparency, QNB said.In recent years, however, many of these tailwinds have turned into headwinds. Geopolitical fragmentation, marked by rising protectionism, US-China rivalry, the Ukraine War, and regional conflicts, has partially undermined trade openness and added uncertainty to global production networks, QNB noted.The Covid pandemic exposed the fragility of over-optimised supply chains, prompting a shift toward reshoring and redundancy that carries higher cost structure.Moreover, the populist backlash and politicisation of economic policy have, in some cases, weakened governance and institutional restraints on decision makers at least since the beginning of Trump 1.0 in 2017.Combined with demographic pressures (less people working to sustain more people not working), green transition costs, and strategic competition over critical technologies, these reversals support the argument of some analysts about a more inflation-prone environment ahead, in which price stability can no longer be taken for granted.On the other hand, many analysts argue that it would be a mistake to assume that the post-Covid and Ukraine War era is uniformly inflationary. Powerful disinflationary forces are at play and accelerating – particularly those rooted in technological innovation.Advances in digitisation, robotics, and artificial intelligence (AI) continue to disrupt traditional production functions, compress operating costs, and drastically reduce the marginal price of services and knowledge-based goods.The digital delivery of education, finance, media, and even healthcare is shifting cost structures downward, while automation and machine learning improve productivity in both manufacturing and services.Moreover, QNB noted, some geopolitical developments commonly viewed as inflationary – such as trade fragmentation – may actually have deflationary consequences under certain conditions.A pertinent historical analogy is the 1930s, when aggressive tariff barriers like the US Smoot-Hawley Act triggered retaliatory trade wars, leading not to higher prices, but to collapsing global demand and deflationary spirals.