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The reopening of China and its implications for commodity demand, including oil, will “potentially be very positive” for GCC markets, National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) said in a report.Emerging markets equities in particular could perform well later in the year as its largest market, China, stands to benefit from the reopening catalyst (though the effect has been slower than anticipated) and a potentially weaker US dollar, NBK said.GCC equity markets lagged behind their global counterparts in first quarter (Q1, 2023), sinking further into bear territory following the equally lacklustre performance of the previous quarter, weighed down by headwinds including rising borrowing costs, softer outlooks for growth and the oil market and fears of banking crisis contagion.The MSCI GCC fell 3% q/q, with losses led by Abu Dhabi (-7.6%) and Qatar (-4.4%), while Kuwait’s All-Share lost 3.3% amid relatively thin liquidity.Losses in the MSCI GCC were curbed by a small gain in heavy weight Saudi Arabia (+0.4%), while Dubai led the pack, up 2.1%.Looking ahead, NBK noted GCC equities will continue to be influenced by international market developments, including oil, economic growth, and Fed policy.Generally improved fiscal positions thanks to large hydrocarbon windfalls in 2022, and still favourable though moderating growth outlooks in 2023 are supportive of market sentiment.A buoyant IPO market should help maintain investor interest after a record 48 listings and $23bn in capitalisation in 2022, 34 from Saudi Arabia linked to its private sector reform and investment plans.Lastly, oil market volatility and rising borrowing costs are additional regional headwinds, though risks from the former appear modest given OPEC’s preemptive production policies, sometimes moving ahead of the market, NBK noted.

Qatar has driven LNG exports of GECF member countries and observers with y-o-y growth of 6.7% (1.11mn tonnes) to reach 17.66mn tonnes in March, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) said in its report released Tuesday.The growth was primarily driven by Qatar (0.62mn tonnes), Norway (0.44mn tonnes), Mozambique (0.30mn tonnes), Trinidad and Tobago (0.15mn tonnes), Nigeria (0.09mn tonnes), the UAE (0.05mn tonnes), Algeria (0.02mn tonnes) and Peru (0.02mn tonnes).The increase in Qatar’s LNG exports was due to lower maintenance activity compared to the previous year.According to GECF, gas and LNG spot prices in Europe and Asia continued to decrease for the third consecutive month.In March 2023, Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and Northeast Asia (NEA) LNG spot prices averaged $13.87/mmBtu and $13.35/mmBtu, falling by 17% and 16% m-o-m, respectively, and representing a 65% decrease y-o-y.Despite lower LNG sendout in the region, European spot prices maintained their bearish trend.Likewise, weak market fundamentals in Asia continued to put pressure on prices.Moreover, the spread between spot prices and oil-indexed LNG prices in both regions has significantly narrowed in comparison to previous months, GECF said.In March 2023, European Union pipeline gas imports rose by 14% month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach 13.7bcm. Global LNG imports increased slightly by 2.7% y-o-y to 35mn tonnes driven primarily by stronger imports in Europe and, to a lesser degree, in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and North America.In contrast, LNG imports decreased in the Asia Pacific and Middle East and North Africa (Mena) regions.Lower pipeline gas imports in Europe continued to support the increased LNG imports while, Asia Pacific’s y-o-y gain in LNG imports reversed from the previous month.Mild winter weather and high LNG inventories led to reduced LNG imports in Japan and South Korea, contributing to an overall decline in imports in the Asia Pacific region.In March, the EU gas consumption recorded a 13% y-o-y decline, reaching 34.1bcm. Factors contributing to the drop in the demand for gas in the EU include warmer than normal temperatures, windier weather conditions, and a year-extension of the implementation of the EU regulation on the voluntary gas demand reduction by 15% until March 2024.In contrast, apparent Chinese gas demand rose by 4.6% y-o-y to 31bcm. According to the CNPC Research Institute, the country's gas demand would expand by 19bcm, or 5.1% in 2023, totalling 386.5 bcm.Europe’s gas production decreased by 3.3% y-o-y to stand at 15.3 bcm in February, primarily due to lower output from the Netherlands and UK.Norway's production remained steady despite technical issues in certain gas fields.Conversely, gas production from the seven major US shale gas/oil regions rose by 7% y-o-y in March reaching 84.5 bcm.The global gas rig count declined by 7 units m-o-m but rose by 61 units y-o-y in March 2023, reaching a total of 410 units, GECF noted.

Qatar Airways does not have to avoid Sudanese airspace because of the situation in that country, Group Chief Executive HE Akbar al-Baker has said.“The airspace of Sudan is not closed, only the airport there is closed. The airspace is open,” al-Baker told Gulf Times yesterday.Qatar Airways is not flying to Khartoum now because of the airport closure, he said.Al-Baker, also Qatar Tourism chairman, said the country has set a target of 6mn foreign visitors annually by 2030.“I think (this year) we will not be too far away from the target we have,” he said.Asked whether there was a lull following Qatar staging the FIFA World Cup 2022 in November and December last year, al-Baker said, “If you look at statistics of the Fifa events that have taken place, it has always been three to four months of quietness following the Fifa tournament. So, we are not unique."Because of FIFA we built so much infrastructure in the hospitality industry and of course now it is our job to make sure that in the coming months we are making sure that occupancy rates go up."He insisted that every World Cup host has the same lull after the tournament and that hotels were still 65-70% full.Al-Baker said Qatar is expecting a huge influx of visitors in the coming months as the country is staging many events including the Expo 2023 Doha.“We are working in every direction. We are trying to promote health tourism, education tourism and MICE in Qatar. We have some great health care facilities and world class educational institutions with campuses in the country.”

Hayya platform is Qatar's single portal for all tourists to enter the countryThree new categories of visitors are now eligible for Qatar’s e-visa- A1, A2 and A3A1 category will include all nationalities who do not qualify either for visa on arrival or visa-free entry into Qatar. A2 category will be GCC residentsA3 category will be international visitors with visa or residency from Schengen, UK, USA, Canada, Australia and New ZealandQatar Tourism has revamped the Hayya platform to enable more nationalities to avail of a tourist visa to visit the country.By expanding the functionality of the Hayya platform, Qatar seeks to invite new tourists who require a visa to visit “our world-class destination”, Qatar Tourism chairman HE Akbar al-Baker said at a press conference Sunday.“The relaunched Hayya platform has become the go-to portal for travellers who require a visa to enter Qatar. Hayya platform will become the country's single portal for all tourists to enter the country,” al-Baker noted..text-box { float:right; width:450px; padding:10px; border:1pt solid black; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 15px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 20px;}@media only screen and (max-width: 767px) {.text-box {width: 65%;}}Qatar seeks to welcome over 6mn visitors a year by 2030: al-Baker“Qatar’s national tourism strategy seeks to welcome over 6mn visitors a year by 2030, Qatar Tourism chairman HE Akbar al-Baker said Sunday."Qatar’s tourism sector goes from strength to strength. The arrival numbers for first quarter of 2023 has hit record numbers – over 1.16mn by the end of March. These numbers also include a very successful cruise season.“Already, Qatar is considered the most open country in terms of visa facilitation in the Middle East and the 8th most open globally, with more than 95 nationalities granted visa on arrival. We are pleased that the latest developments will further cement Qatar’s position as a leading tourism destination and will provide the opportunity for even more travellers to experience the country’s truly unique touristic offering.”“This will not only provide a valuable contribution to our economy but will help create countless employment opportunities across our country,” al- Baker added.Three new categories of visitors will now be eligible for Qatar’s e-visa. Hayya e-visa will categorise visitors based on nationality, residency or other international visa, which a traveller already has. The three new categories are A1, A2 and A3.Explaining the three new categories who will be granted easier access, al-Baker, also Qatar Airways Group CEO, stated that the A1 category will include all nationalities who do not qualify either for visa on arrival or visa-free entry into Qatar.The A2 category will be GCC residents. From now on, GCC residents of all professions will be eligible for Qatar’s e-visa.The third category - A3 - will be international visitors with visa or residency from Schengen, UK, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. They will be eligible for Qatar’s e-visa.“They (A3 category) don’t require health insurance if the stay does not exceed 30 days,” Saeed Ali al-Kuwari, CEO, Hayya Platform told Gulf Times.“ Streamlining Qatar’s tourist visa process comes as a step to further build on the recognition of Doha being the Arab Tourism Capital for 2023 and will offer new visitors a chance to experience what makes Qatar a one-of-a-kind destination,” al-Baker noted.Taking place with immediate effect, the launch of the well-known Hayya Platform, which allowed the entry of over a million visitors during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 tournament – and its application via smart phones, will become the single portal for all tourist and business visas to Qatar.This will unify visa processes for tourists, GCC residents and companions travelling with GCC citizens (whom are issued an Authorisation Electronic Travel permit).The latest development reflects Qatar’s keenness to continue its investment in the tourism sector, which forms an important pillar to the economy, and reflects the longer-term strategic vision to position the country as the leading tourism destination in the region.Tourists who require a visa to enter Qatar can apply through the Hayya Platform at www.hayya.qa, or through the application on their smartphones, and visit Doha, the Arab Tourism Capital of 2023.In addition, Hayya holders will enjoy seamless travel and connectivity into Qatar as Hayya will be enabled for e-gate entry at Hamad International Airport.For those entering Qatar via land at the Abu Samra border, the Hayya Platform will provide a pre-registration option for faster entry for vehicles, making the start of a weekend getaway or longer stay in Qatar even smoother and more enjoyable.For GCC nationals, the platform provides an option to apply for an entry permit for companions. The Hayya Platform also provides further services that help round out a visitor’s stay, including maps, transportation options, offers and current events.Al-Kuwari commented: “The re-launch of the Haya Platform in its new form today is an extension of the strategic vision that the Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy had previously developed, a vision that centres on the sustainable legacy of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022.“The launch represents a means by which we will truly sustain the legacy of the World Cup. Previously, the Hayya card allowed fans from around the world to enter Qatar to watch their favourite teams during the world’s biggest football event. Today, the Hayya Platform is the legacy, which we build upon, inviting visitors from all corners of the earth to visit our country and enjoy its authenticity, history, culture, hospitality, natural beauty and much more.”Following the unprecedented success of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, Qatar has continued to welcome record-breaking numbers of tourists in the first quarter of this year.The country’s authentic culture, abundant natural beauty and world-class hospitality and leisure venues were experienced directly by international visitors during the world’s biggest sporting event late last year and witnessed by billions more remotely.Visitors to Qatar will be privy to Qatar’s recently expanded hospitality and leisure landscape, which includes beaches and resorts, such as Fuwairit Kite Beach with its pristine shores and serene waters, and West Bay Beach, which has been developed in the heart of the city.In addition, families can enjoy premium shopping and dining destinations such as ‘Printemps’ and ‘Place Vendôme’, world-class museums including the National Museum of Qatar and the recently re-opened Museum of Islamic Art, all while selecting their stay from a collection of newly opened and industry-leading international and home-grown hotels including The Ned Doha, Raffles and Fairmont Doha and The Outpost at Al Barari.

Qatar "reclaimed" its position as the largest liquefied natural gas exporter in the world with 80mn tonnes of LNG exports in 2022, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has said in a report. Last year, Qatar was followed by Australia (79mn tonnes), the US (78mn tonnes), Russia (32mn tonnes) and Malaysia (27mn tonnes) respectively, GECF said in its ‘Annual Gas Market Report 2023’.In terms of the variation in global LNG exports at a country level, the US continued to drive the increase in global LNG exports while Russia, Qatar, Norway, Malaysia and Trinidad and Tobago contributed to a lesser extent. In contrast, LNG exports were down significantly in Nigeria and Algeria.In 2022, global LNG exports increased by 5% (18mn tonnes) y-o-y to 399mn tonnes, Doha-headquartered GECF noted.This represents a slowdown in the pace of growth in LNG exports, which expanded by 6% (22mn tonnes) y-o-y in 2021. The higher LNG exports last year came from GECF and non-GECF countries as well as higher LNG reloads. GECF’s share in global LNG exports averaged 50% in 2022, relatively unchanged from a year earlier. The start-up and ramp-up of new liquefaction projects, higher feedgas availability, lower unplanned maintenance, and LNG production above the nameplate capacity in some countries, drove the increase in global LNG exports.In 2023, assuming LNG reloads remain at the same level as 2022; global LNG exports including LNG reloads are forecasted to grow by 4-4.5% (16mn-18mn tonnes) y-o-y to 416mn tonnes, GECF said. This represents a slight slowdown in the pace of growth in LNG exports from the previous year. Non-GECF countries are forecasted to account for bulk incremental LNG exports with an additional 11mn tonnes, while LNG exports from GECF member countries are forecasted to rise by 6mn tonnes.In 2024, also assuming LNG reloads remain at the same level as 2023, the pace of growth in global LNG exports is forecasted to accelerate slightly by 4.5-5% (18-20mn tonnes) y-o-y to 435mn tonnes.Both GECF member countries and non-GECF countries are forecasted to boost global LNG exports with additional 10mn tonnes and 9mn tonnes of LNG respectively.Gas markets in 2022 were characterised by significant turbulence and fundamental changes, mainly driven by geopolitical developments and underinvestment in the industry over the past decade, GECF said. Spot gas and LNG prices in Europe and Asia skyrocketed to record highs at the end of summer, while experiencing significant volatility throughout the year. This was mainly attributed to a tight LNG market as Europe’s LNG demand surged to replace lower pipeline gas imports into the region. Amidst record-high spot prices, various countries around the world had to switch from gas to coal and even lignite, chiefly in the power generation and industrial sectors. Energy security concerns took precedence over climate change mitigation goals, with policymakers focusing on meeting the energy needs of their people, and countries heading to solve the energytrilemma of achieving security, affordability and sustainability, GECF said.

Airlines incur unnecessary costs when they are unable to repatriate their overseas sales funds, freely or in a time-bound manner..text-box { float:left; width:250px; padding:1px; border:1pt white; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 15px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 20px;}@media only screen and (max-width: 767px) {.text-box {width: 30%;}}**media[16411]**Typically such costs occur when airlines' funds are forced to sit idle in foreign bank accounts as a result of foreign exchange shortages or regulatory obstacles put in place by certain governments.As of February this year, the total amount of blocked airline funds has reached $2.3bn worldwide, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).Of this, the Africa/Middle East region accounted for $1.8bn, Asia $519mn, Europe $24mn and Americas $233,000.The blocked or trapped funds are mostly from the sale of tickets, cargo space, and other activities.IATA, which is the global body of airlines, has urged governments to work with the aviation industry to resolve the issues that prevent airlines from repatriating their rightful funds.This, it said will enable aviation to provide the connectivity needed to sustain jobs and to energise economies as they recover from the pandemic.Airlines will not be able to provide reliable connectivity if they cannot rely on local revenues to support operations. That is why it is critical for all governments to prioritise ensuring that funds can be repatriated efficiently, IATA says.By blocking airline funds from ticket sales, various countries are depriving the aviation industry of the much-needed cash, in contravention of bilateral agreements and global standards.Holding back money belonging to airlines also discourages other carriers from serving the particular market, thereby reducing connectivity and options for passengers.For airlines, this can lead to cash flow problems, reduced profitability, operational difficulties, reduced investment and reputation damage.Blocked funds can cause significant cash flow problems for airlines, as they may not be able to access funds that are owed to them. This can impact their ability to pay for fuel, salaries, and other essential expenses, which could ultimately lead to financial difficulties and even bankruptcy.When funds are blocked, airlines may have to accept lower profits or even losses on their international routes. This is because they may be forced to sell tickets in local currency and then hold onto that currency until they can access it, which can result in exchange rate losses.These can also make it difficult for airlines to operate effectively. For example, they may be unable to pay their suppliers or service providers, which could impact their ability to maintain their aircraft, provide in-flight services, or even pay for landing fees and other airport charges.Trapped funds can discourage airlines from investing in new routes or expanding their operations in certain countries. This can limit the growth potential of airlines and may lead to missed business opportunities.If airlines are unable to provide refunds or make other payments to customers due to blocked funds, it can damage their reputation and reduce customer trust. This could lead to a decrease in bookings and revenue over the long term.Industry analysts say if conditions persist that make the economics of operation to a country unsustainable, one would expect airlines to put their valued aircraft assets to better use elsewhere.Clearly, ongoing problems with blocked funds are extremely damaging to the airline industry. One of the consequences is that flights to countries with blocked funds cost six or seven times more than comparable flights elsewhere! Clearly, Africa is a case in point.Blocked remittances have plagued airlines for years, but the situation has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic that left airlines cash-strapped after many years of weak travel demand.Therefore, it is critical for governments around the world to prioritise repatriation of blocked funds in the overall interest of the aviation industry, which is a key driver of global economic growth.

Qatar's merchandise exports have been forecast to total $115bn this year and nearly $138bn in 2027, FocusEconomics said in its latest update.Merchandise trade balance, the researcher said may total $81.6bn this year and nearly $98bn in 2027.The country’s merchandise exports next year have been forecast at $111.8bn, $113.3bn (2025) and $123.6bn (2026).Merchandise imports have been forecast at $33.8bn this year, $36bn (2024), $36.4bn (2025), $37.9bn (2026) and $40.2bn (2027).Merchandise trade balance, FocusEconomics said, may total $75.8bn (2024), $76.9bn (2025) and $85.7bn (2026).Qatar’s GDP, the researcher noted, may total $222n this year, $224bn (2024), $243bn (2025), $261bn (2026) and $281bn (2027).GDP per capita has been forecast at $84,955 this year, $86,403 (2024), $94,700 (2025), $102,659 (2026) and $111,860 (2027).Economic growth has been forecast at 2.6% this year and next, 5.3% (2025), 4.9% (2026) and 4.6% (2027).Qatar’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) has been forecast at 7.5% this year, 5.4% (2024), 5% (2025), 6.9% (2026) and 6.7% (2027).Public debt (as a percentage of GDP) has been forecast at 41.1% this year, 42.6% (2024), 40.7% (2025), 39.7% (2026) and 37% (2027).Current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) may reach 17.9% this year, 15% (2024), 10.9% (2025), 16.1% (2026) and 18.3% (2027).Current account balance may total $39.8bn this year, $33.6bn (2024), $26.5bn (2025), $42bn (2026) and $51.4bn (2027), FocusEconomics said.The economy likely expanded strongly in the fourth quarter (Q4) as the hospitality sector was boosted by the FIFA World Cup; the country welcomed over 1.2mn visitors in November-December, around double the number of arrivals in the whole of 2021.But energy output tumbled in December following strong growth in November. Moreover, the completion of World Cup-related projects tempered construction activity, and public-sector output will have been restrained by the temporary reduction in school and government office hours.Turning to this year, the economic picture remains divergent between sectors. On one hand, the tourism industry remains in rude health, with visitor arrivals up close to 350% year-on-year in January-February.On the flipside, building permits declined in annual terms in the same two months, likely linked to the end of the World Cup and higher interest rates.The economy will lose steam this year as the boost from the World Cup fades, building activity slows, borrowing costs rise and external demand flags, FocusEconomics said.That said, ongoing gas sector development and a stronger tourism industry will provide support. Improved relations with Arab neighbours are an upside risk.FocusEconomics panellists see a 2.6% rise in GDP during 2023, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% growth in 2024.Inflation rose to 4.4% in February from 4.2% in January. Meanwhile, the Qatar Central Bank hiked its policy rates by 25 basis points in March, in line with the Fed, with the lending rate rising to 5.75%.In 2023, FocusEconomics panellists see inflation moderating from last year as borrowing costs rise and commodity prices recede. FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 3% in 2023, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2% in 2024.

Qatar is expected to post a fiscal surplus of 6.5% in 2023 and 5.3% next year, the World Bank has said in its latest report.The country’s current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 15.9 this year and 12.1 in 2024, the report noted.Qatar's real GDP growth has been forecast by World Bank at 3.3% this year and 2.9% in 2024.World Bank economists forecast that the Mena region will grow by 3% in 2023 and by 3.1% in 2024, much lower than the growth rate of 5.8% in 2022.2“The Mena average growth rate masks the stark differences across countries,” the World Bank noted.In the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) — Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain — growth is expected to decelerate from 7.3% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2023, driven by the expected decline of oil prices from the highs reached in 2022. Developing oil exporters are forecast to grow at 2.2% in 2023, a deceleration from their 3.9% growth in 2022.Developing oil importers are expected to grow by 3.6% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024 — although this is largely driven by Egypt’s relatively high expected growth. Setting Egypt aside for a moment, other developing oil importers are expected to grow by 2.8% and 3.1% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.Changes in real GDP per capita are arguably a more accurate measure of changes in living standards. Following a recovery of 4.4% in 2022, growth in real GDP per capita for Mena is expected to decelerate to 1.6% and 1.7% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, the report said.The slowdown in growth will be experienced across the region, but more acutely in the GCC. GDP per capita growth for GCC countries is expected to decelerate from 5.5% in 2022 to 1.8% in 2023 and 2% in 2024.For developing oil exporters, the corresponding rates are 0.8% in 2023 and 1% in 2024. For developing oil importers, GDP per capita is expected to grow 2.1% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024, World Bank said.Food price inflation reached double digits for most of the middle-income and low-income Mena economies in 2022, the World Bank noted.For most Mena economies, food price inflation is “much higher” than headline inflation. In fact, food inflation accounts for about half or more of headline inflation in many countries in the region, even though food’s weight in the consumer price index (CPI) is typically around 25%.Importantly, the data indicate that that poorer households in December 2022 experienced about 2 percentage point more inflation (year-on-year) than rich households on average in the Mena region.Countries whose currency depreciated vis-à-vis the US dollar also experienced higher levels of inflation in Mena. After accounting for exchange rate fluctuations, inflation in most Mena countries was moderate or low, indeed lower than the levels seen in the United States.When faced with rising prices in commodity markets, in particular oil and food, countries in Mena put in place policies aimed at containing domestic inflation. Despite these efforts, food inflation in most Mena economies increased since the war in Ukraine and indeed was higher than headline inflation. Increases in the price of food products accounted for half or more of the headline inflation, World Bank noted.

Opec production cuts are expected to weigh on GCC growth in 2023, Emirates NBD said and now forecasts region’s headline GDP growth at 2.3% for 2023, down from 3.2% previously.The biggest voluntary cuts will come from Saudi Arabia, which will reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May. If the cuts are maintained through the end of 2023, average crude production this year will decline by more than 4% from 2022 levels.While investment in boosting capacity in the oil and gas sector will continue, Emirates NBD now expects overall hydrocarbon GDP to decline by -2.0% in 2023 against a previous forecast of 2.0% growth.With the non-oil sector growth estimate unchanged at 4.8%, headline GDP for the kingdom will likely reach 2.1% this year, a full percentage point lower than we had previously expected.The UAE indicated it would voluntarily cut crude oil production for 2023 by 144,000 bpd from May, which would also result in a decline in average output this year relative to 2022.However, the UAE has brought forward planned investment in oil and gas capacity in order to reach 5mn bpd by 2027 rather than 2030, which will support growth in the hydrocarbons sector even as crude production declines.“At this stage, we still expect oil and gas GDP to contribute positively to overall growth, although to a smaller extent than previously envisaged. As a result, we have revised our 2023 UAE GDP growth forecast down to 3.4% from 3.9% previously, with our forecast for non-oil sector growth remaining unchanged at 3.5%.“Similar adjustments to hydrocarbon sector growth forecasts for Kuwait and Oman result in downward revisions to headline GDP growth to 0.2% (previously 2.4%) and 1.7% (previously 2.8%) respectively, again with no changes to non-oil sector growth estimates at this stage,” Emirates NBD said.Emirates NBD said it had already revised its forecasts for GCC budgets lower on the back of its downward adjustment to the 2023 oil price estimate a couple of weeks ago.Reducing the amount of oil produced and sold will further negatively impact budget revenues for oil exporting countries.For the whole GCC, the forecast budget surplus for 2023 is now 1.8% of GDP from 2.5% previously. It now expects Saudi Arabia to run a close to balanced budget, while Kuwait is likely to post a small deficit of -0.3% of GDP. The UAE’s forecast surplus has been reduced to 5.6% of GDP from 6.2% of GDP previously.With fewer barrels of oil produced this year, the break-even oil price (the oil price required on each one in order to balance the budget) rises as well, unless government spending is reduced proportionately or non-oil revenues increase.The UAE’s breakeven oil price is not easy to estimate as revenues are split into tax and non-tax revenue (not oil and non-oil). However, the researcher thinks the UAE’s break-even oil price in 2023 is likely to be between $60-65/barrel, the lowest in the GCC.Current account surpluses have also been adjusted to reflect lower volumes of oil produced and exported relative to expectations at the start of the year.All GCC countries are still expected to run current account surpluses in 2023, with the weighted average for the region at 12.5% of GDP this year, down from an estimated 16.8% in 2022, Emirates NBD noted.

The deal value of liquefied natural gas assets in 2022 climbed 15% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach $23bn, driven by Qatar’s LNG development, Doha-based Gas Exporting Countries Forum has said in a report.Qatar’s North Field expansion project accounted for 43% of the growth in LNG deal value, GECF said in its ‘Annual Gas Market Report 2023’.According to GECF, merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the upstream sector declined to $154bn in 2022, 21% lower y-o-y, and below pre-pandemic levels.This decline was essentially driven by the continued impact of Covid-related lockdowns particularly in China, high oil and gas price volatility and escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe. Most regions experienced a sharp decline except for the Middle East and Africa.In the Middle East, M&A activity increased by 46% y-o-y, while in Africa the deal value more than tripled compared to the previous year to reach a record $24bn.North America accounted for almost 50% of asset and corporate acquisitions in 2022 amounting to $72bn, with private companies responsible for a large share of divestment as they opted to maximise their assets amidst the high price environment.Europe and Africa accounted for 17% and 16% of M&A activity respectively, where high commodity prices increased the value of traded producing resources and spurred buying and selling activity.In addition, a significant increase in demand for gas and LNG assets was observed in the midst of heightened concerns about energy security.In 2023, upstream M&A activity is likely to be remain around 2022 levels or increase.Furthermore, global energy security concerns are likely to drive investment for gas and LNG assets, and more so, increase acquisitions by European majors in Africa and theMiddle East to secure production assets.Additionally, net-zero emission targets may also support demand for gas and LNG assets as the cleanest burning fossil fuel.According to GECF, oil and gas investment has increased by 7% y-o-y to reach $718bn, partly due to higher petroleum services and EPC costs.In 2023, oil and gas investment is expected to rise further, on the back of greater investment in the upstream industry and LNG import terminals.However, several looming uncertainties, including a slowdown in global economic growth, tight financial conditions, inflation, and high energy price volatility may deter investment, GECF noted.

Oil and gas investment increased by 7% y-o-y to reach $718bn in 2022 and is expected to rise further in 2023, but looming uncertainties may deter investment, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum said in its fourth edition of its Annual Gas Market Report Wednesday.In 2023, oil and gas investment is expected to rise further, on the back of greater investment in the upstream industry and LNG import terminals.However, several looming uncertainties, including a slowdown in global economic growth, tight financial conditions, inflation, and high energy price volatility, may deter investment, GECF noted.Spot gas and LNG prices in Europe and Asia reached record highs in 2022, with significant volatility throughout the year. This, the report noted, was mainly due to a tight LNG market as Europe's LNG demand surged to replace lower pipeline gas imports.In 2022, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) spot gas prices in Europe averaged $38/MMBtu, 136% higher y-o-y, while Northeast Asia (NEA) LNG spot prices averaged $33/MMBtu, a 79% increase y-o-y.This shift in prices made Europe the premier LNG market for suppliers, as TTF spot prices maintained a high premium over Asian LNG spot prices. In 2023, spot prices are expected to remain volatile.Factors such as a relatively mild winter, high gas storage levels in Europe, and weakened gas demand growth in the midst of a slowdown in global economic growth may exert downward pressure on spot prices.However, there may be some upward pressure on spot prices this year due to the anticipated recovery in China’s gas demand,higher imports in price-sensitive countries in Asia Pacific, and a rebound in gas demand in the industrial sector.Additionally, any further supply disruptions or extreme weather conditions during the year may also boost prices, GECF said.Energy security concerns took precedence over climate change mitigation goals in 2022, with policymakers focusing on meeting the energy needs of their people, the report said.Following a record rebound in 2021, global gas consumption declined in 2022, but is expected to resume growth in 2023 and reach an all-time high level, with the power generation sector remaining the largest consumer of gas.US, China, and some emerging countries in Asia Pacific are forecasted to drive the growth of global gas consumption in 2023, it said.GECF secretary-general Mohamed Hamel said, “The Annual Gas Market Report is comprehensive and I hope it will become an essential tool for anyone interested in natural gas.”The publication comes at a time when natural gas markets are undergoing fundamental transformations in terms of physical flows, investment, trade, and market functioning."The developments in the gas industry are an indication of the bright prospects for the expansion of the global gas industry, as natural gas is set to play a pivotal role in socio-economic development and towards just and inclusive energy transitions," Hamel added.

Qatar's giant North Field East LNG liquefaction project is expected to capture and store 2.9Mt CO2 per year, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum said Wednesday.The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) investments to reach $1.8bn in 2022, followed by a sharp increase over the next two years to reach $40bn by 2024.The past few years have witnessed an escalation in the language of climate change and CCS projects are at the heart of it as part of a reliable decarbonisation pathway.Since the start of 2018, momentum behind CCS has been growing which is translated into a significant rise in announced CCS projects and the associated carbon abatement capacity.As of 2022, about 200 new carbon capture projects have been announced under different stages of development, with aggregated capturing capacity of around 240tonnes carbon dioxide per year.This represents a 44% increase compared to the number of projects in 2021 and evidence of the increased interest in CCS as a pathway for achieving emissions reduction, while supporting at the same time economic growth and a just transition.Currently, there are around 30 operational facilities applying CCS on commercial scale to industrial operations, power generation and fuel transformation.On the other hand, there are CCS projects that are in different phases of developments, with 75 projects in early development phase, some 78 projects in advanced development phase and 11 projects under construction.However, in 2022 only 19 commercial CCS projects under development have taken FID, including the FID for the development of Petronas’s Kasawari CCS project off the coast of Sarawak, Malaysia, which is considered the world largest offshore CCS project, with capturing capacity around 3.3mn tonnes CO2 per year.Over 100 projects may be sanctioned in 2023, which would be considered a significant rise in the CCS portfolio.On a regional basis, the major share of capturing capacity for operational CCS in 2022 belongs to the US with more than 50%, followed by Canada and Asia Pacific.The CCS projects under development are distributed over 30 countries with some projects in different phases of progress.According to the IEA’s Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage 2022 report, the US has about 80 projects that are under development through to 2030, with total capturing capacity of 100Mtpa. This would increase the US capacity in CCS five times.Also in North America, Canada is working on enhancing its CCS deployment, with about 15 projects under development, the GECF said.

Africa accounts for 18% of the global population, but just 2.1% of air transport activities including cargo and passenger segments. Africa faces several challenges in its aviation industry..text-box { float:left; width:250px; padding:1px; border:1pt white; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 15px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 20px;}@media only screen and (max-width: 767px) {.text-box {width: 30%;}}**media[15358]**Infrastructure constraints, high costs, lack of connectivity, regulatory impediments, slow adoption of global standards and skills shortages affect the customer experience and are all contributory factors to African airlines’ viability and sustainability. The continent’s carriers suffered cumulative losses of $3.5bn during the 2020-2022 period.Moreover, the International Air Transport Association estimates further losses of $213mn in 2023.Many African airports lack modern infrastructure, such as modern runways, taxiways, and navigation aids. This limits the ability of airlines to operate efficiently and safely.The regulatory environment for aviation in Africa is often complex, inconsistent, and subject to corruption. This can create significant barriers for airlines looking to operate in multiple African countries.African airlines often struggle to access funding for expansion and modernisation. This is due to factors such as limited access to capital markets, high operating costs, and limited government support.Safety and security concerns remain significant challenges facing African aviation. Many African airlines have poor safety records, and some countries in Africa have significant security challenges.African airlines also face stiff competition from foreign carriers. Many African airlines struggle to compete with larger and more established carriers from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.Obviously, these challenges create a difficult environment for African airlines to operate in. Addressing these challenges will require significant investment in infrastructure, regulatory reform, and support for local carriers.Sustainably connecting the African continent internally and to global markets with air transport is critical for bringing people together and creating economic and social development opportunities, IATA says.It will also support the realisation of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) for Africa of lifting 50mn people out of poverty by 2030.In particular, trade and tourism rely on aviation and have immense unrealised potential to create jobs, alleviate poverty, and generate prosperity across the continent.Africa has a solid foundation to support the case for improving aviation’s contribution to its development. Pre-Covid aviation supported 7.7mn jobs and $63bn in economic activity in Africa, IATA said and noted projections are for demand to triple over the next two decades.Undoubtedly, Africa continues the path to recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. Air cargo is 31.4% over 2019 levels and air travel is 93% of 2019 levels. Full recovery for air travel is expected in 2024.Recently, IATA launched ‘Focus Africa’ to strengthen aviation’s contribution to Africa’s economic and social development and improve connectivity, safety and reliability for passengers and shippers.This initiative will align private and public stakeholders to deliver measurable progress in some key areas such as safety, infrastructure, connectivity, finance and distribution, sustainability and future skills.“Africa stands out as the region with the greatest potential and opportunity for aviation. The Focus Africa initiative renews IATA’s commitment to supporting aviation on the continent. As the incoming chair of the IATA Board of Governors, and the first from Africa since 1993, I look forward to ensuring that this initiative gets off to a great start and delivers benefits that are measurable,” said Yvonne Makolo, also CEO of RwandAir.IATA director general Willie Walsh noted, “The limiting factors on Africa’s aviation sector are fixable. The potential for growth is clear. And the economic boost that a more successful African aviation sector will deliver has been witnessed in many economies already.“With Focus Africa, stakeholders are uniting to deliver on six critical focus areas that will make a positive difference. We will measure success and need to hold each other accountable for the results.”

Qatar's outlook for 2023-2024 is favourable, thanks to continued elevated global gas prices, Allianz Trade said and noted the country’s economy strengthened on the back of high global natural gas prices.In its latest country update, Allianz Trade forecasts around 3% growth for Qatar over the next two years. After a slow start, Qatar’s “recovery from the double shock of the global Covid-19 crisis and the drop in oil and gas prices in 2020 has been sound.”Real GDP contracted by -3.6% in 2020, less than the GCC average of -4.9%, thanks to a more diversified economy and lower dependence on oil revenues – Qatar’s main export product is natural and manufactured gas.A moderate recovery in 2021 resulted in real GDP growth of 1.6%. The recovery gained strong momentum in 2022, mainly thanks to the sharp rise in global gas prices, Allianz Trade noted.Moreover, a high Covid-19 vaccination rate allowed for the successive removal of lockdown measures and supported consumer spending.FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 also supported economic growth through increased tourism revenues. Real GDP grew by an average 4.4% in the first three quarters of 2022 and Allianz Trade estimates it to have accelerated towards the end of the year.Qatar’s fiscal reserves are solid but an elevated public debt level requires monitoring, Allianz Trade noted. Qatar’s fiscal breakeven point has ranged between $35 and $55 per barrel of crude oil over the past decade.Hence the government has recorded large annual fiscal surpluses in most years, except for 2016-2017 when oil and gas prices had been persistently low for some time.“Even in 2020 a small surplus of 1.3% of GDP was achieved. The surplus widened to around 4.4% in 2021 and we estimate it to have increased to more than 10% in 2022, thanks to surging gas prices. We project continued robust surpluses close to 10% of GDP in 2023-2024,” Allianz Trade noted.Meanwhile, the country’s public debt rose from 25% of GDP in 2014 to 73% in 2020, in part due to declining nominal GDP. However, the debt-to-GDP ratio eventually declined to 58% in 2021 and Allianz Trade expects it to fall further over 2022-2024 in the wake of the economic recovery.Allianz Trade forecasts the ratio to remain elevated and it should be monitored closely. Overall, however, Qatar will remain a large net external creditor, thanks to the huge foreign-asset position in the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA, a sovereign wealth fund currently estimated at approximately $475bn).“External liquidity will remain unproblematic in the next two years. Qatar has recorded large, sometimes huge annual current account surpluses for more than two decades, with the exceptions of 2016 and 2020 when global oil and gas prices were particularly low,” Allianz Trade noted.These surpluses, it said, have contributed to the build-up of the QIA. Higher oil and gas prices moved the current account back into a surplus of nearly 15% of GDP in 2021 and more than 20% in 2022. That ratio is likely to narrow somewhat in 2023-2024 but should remain well in the double digits.External debt is relatively high; it rose to 126% of GDP in 2020, incurred by oil and gas investments since the 2000s, but repayment obligations are unlikely to present liquidity problems. Meanwhile, the ratio is estimated to have fallen to approximately 84% in 2022 and should decline further.The annual debt-service-to-export-earnings ratio is forecast at a manageable 16% or so in 2023. Qatar’s “financial resources will remain strong.”The combined FX reserves of Qatar Central Bank and the QIA represent over 200% of annual GDP and cover more than 80 months of imports, Allianz Trade noted.

New Opec cuts may tighten markets considerably and widen the oil market deficit in the second half of this year, Emirates NBD said Monday.The regional banking group forecasts Brent to average $92.50/barrel in H2, 2023.Some members of Opec+ have announced a “surprise” production cut to take effect from May and be held until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia will cut output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) while several other members will also cut output substantially.The UAE will cut by 144,000 bpd, Iraq by 211,000 bpd and Kuwait will cut output by 128,000 bpd.The production changes will mirror “voluntary” cuts of 500,000 bpd that Russia is making in response to sanctions that have been placed on its oil exports.“Including Russia’s cuts, the total reduction from Opec+ will be about 1.6mn bpd though as several members of Opec are already failing to hit their output targets, the scale of the cut is likely to be smaller,” Emirates NBD said in a report.“The move surprised markets and analyst consensus. Our own expectation was that Opec+ would keep production unchanged from the levels it set in October last year when it also implemented a supply cut,” Emirates NBD noted.As recently as February this year, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, said that the “agreement that we struck in October is here to stay for the rest of the year,” referring to planned cuts of 2mn bpd announced in October last year.Since then, financial markets have endured considerable stress due to the collapse of several institutions in the US along with the descent of Credit Suisse.That strain in financial markets did spill over into oil prices — West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures recently hit a bottom of $64/b on March 20 — though prices were already on their way higher with WTI ending last week at $75.67/b.The announced cuts from several Opec members will widen the oil market deficit in the second half of 2023, provided they are held for the full tenure of the agreement.“Our prior oil market balance assumptions had a deficit emerging in H2 this year as demand was set to recover strongly from Q2 onward as China’s oil demand normalised. With the new cuts from Opec+ taken into the baseline, the deficit will near on 3m b/d by Q4 this year and drain inventories down to 53 days of OECD demand. The pre-pandemic average for inventory days of demand had been about 62 days so the cuts will have a meaningful tightening effect on balances,” noted Edward Bell, senior director, Market Economics at Emirates NBD.The cuts from Opec+ ministers reinforce Emirates NBD’s view that oil prices will recover from recent lows, particularly in H2.“For now, we hold our recently revised oil forecasts unchanged — targeting Brent at an average of $92.50/b in H2 — though the cuts do provide some upside risks to that view,” he said.

ICT spending in Qatar is set to reach $5.6bn this year and $6.2bn by 2026, according to a latest forecast by International Data Corporation (IDC).In its regional forecasts for the year ahead, IDC revealed that it expects telecommunications services spending in Qatar to increase, with IT spending set to grow from $3.14bn this year to $3.6bn in 2026.This, IDC noted, aligns with Qatar’s national vision which aims to build a vibrant ICT sector as part of an advanced knowledge economy and a sustainable future for its people.“To navigate storms of disruption, organisations in Qatar will need to invest in strengthening their digital resiliency so they are better positioned to succeed in new market environments as conditions continue to change," says Jyoti Lalchandani, IDC's group vice president and regional managing director for the META region.”"Regardless of what the economy throws at us over the coming 12 months, the implementation of further digitalisation in critical areas such as customer experience, operations, and financial management together with a more rapid shift to a 'digital business' approach will be key to separating the thrivers from the survivors.“To this end, we expect to see digital transformation spending as a share of overall IT spending continue to grow, reaching $3.6bn in 2026, up from $3.14bn in 2023," he added.In a digital-first economy, where an enterprise's competitiveness is tied to its digital business model, leaders will avoid wholesale cutbacks in tech. Further, new tactics will be employed as tech leaders seek to realise maximum business value from their tech investments. In Qatar, spending on Enterprise IT will reach $1.87bn and consumer spending will reach $1.08bn in 2023.

The Qatari banking sector's total assets moved up 0.3% MoM (down 2.3% in 2023) in February to reach QR1.862tn, QNB Financial Services said in a report.The sector’s liquid assets to total assets was at 30.3% in February, compared to 30.2% in January this year.The total loan book edged up by 0.1% MoM (down 0.7% in 2023) and deposits declined by 1.0% MoM (-4.9% in 2023) in February.Deposits declined by 1.0% during February to QR950.2bn, mainly due to a 6.4% fall in non-resident deposits, QNBFS said.Loans edged up 0.1% during February to reach QR1,246.7bn, mainly due to gains both in the private (0.1%) and public (0.3%) sectors.Loans have declined by 0.7% in 2023, compared to a growth of 3.3% in 2022. Loans grew by an average 6.7% over the past five years (2018-2022), QNBFS said.The banking sector's loan provisions to gross loans was at 3.6% in February, similar to that of January this year.Both the private and public sectors pushed the overall credit higher. As deposits fell by 1% in February, the loans to deposits (LDR) rose to 131.2% compared to 129.6% in January.The overall loan book went up by 0.1% in February. Domestic private sector loans moved up by 0.1% MoM (+0.2% in 2023) in February 2023. The real estate segment was the main contributor towards the private sector loan gain.The real estate segment (contributes 23% to private sector loans) moved higher by 2.0% MoM (+1.7% in 2023), while general trade (contributes 21% to private sector loans) moved up by 0.1% MoM (+0.8% in 2023).However, consumption and others (contributes 20% to private sector loans) went down by 0.9% MoM (-0.6% in 2023), while services (contributes 29% to private sector loans) was lower by 0.2% MoM (-0.6% in 2023) in February.Total public sector loans increased by 0.3% MoM (-2.8% in 2023). The government institutions segment (represents 67% of public sector loans) loan book gained 0.4% MoM (+1.5% in 2023), while the government segment (represents 28% of public sector loans) added 0.3% MoM (-12.1% in 2023).However, the semi-government institutions segment declined by 1.2% MoM (-0.6% in 2023). Outside Qatar loans contracted by 0.8% MoM (-0.2% in 2023) in February, QNBFS said.Private sector deposits declined by 0.8% MoM (-1.1% in 2023) in February 2023. On the private sector front, the companies and institutions segment dropped by 2.8% MoM (-4.1% in 2023). However, the consumer segment increased by 1.1% MoM (+1.9% in 2023) during February 2023.Public sector deposits increased by 1.8% MoM (-7.7% in 2023) for the month of February 2023. The government institutions segment (represents 59% of public sector deposits) moved up 3.6% MoM (-2.6% in 2023), while the government segment (represents 27% of public sector deposits) went up by 3.4% MoM (-18.5% in 2023).However, the semi-government institutions’ segment fell by 7.2% MoM (-4.7% in 2023) in February 2023, QNBFS said.An analyst told Gulf Times yesterday that the “overall decline in the deposits by 1.0% in February 2023 is mainly due to the 6.4% drop in non-resident deposits. With higher energy prices and improved local liquidity situation, there is less reliance on non-resident deposits and optimisation in funding sources for banks”.

Strong business optimism has underpinned Qatar's 2023 growth outlook, Oxford Economics said in its latest country outlook.Oxford Economics has left its 2023 GDP forecast for Qatar unchanged at 2.7% and sees the economy sustaining this pace in 2024 as the government continues to support growth.The researcher expects the expansion of gas capacity and the pipeline of planned projects to draw foreign direct investment (FDI), underpinning average growth of 3.2% in the non-oil sector this year and next.The February PMI showed business activity growing for the first time since September 2022, led by demand in the wholesale and retail sectors.The monthly rise on January was the second strongest since the PMI data began to be compiled, driven by a rebound in output and new business. Although the employment index changed little during the month, businesses are upbeat about growth prospects, with expectations of activity soaring to a 41-month high.The February PMI points to a slowing albeit steady growth path in 2023, in line with regional trends.Although commodity prices have softened amid weaker global growth, they remain elevated, providing support to Qatar's macroeconomic environment. GDP data for Q4, 2022 is yet to be reported, but the researcher expects activity to have been supported by the month-long FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, which brought an influx of visitors.“We continue to think GDP expanded by 4.1% last year. GDP data for Q3, 2022 show the economy grew by 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), marking a slight decline on a quarterly basis. The expansion was driven by 5.3% y-o-y growth in the non-oil sectors, amid strength in construction, transportation, and wholesale and retail trade. Meanwhile, the oil sector expansion stood at 2.7% y-o-y,” Oxford Economics said. “Firms are optimistic about near-term growth prospects, with the 12-month outlook soaring to a 41-month high. Weaker global growth and softer commodity prices are dampening exports and the budget revenue outlook.”Oxford Economics’ baseline sees spending growth easing, leading to a budget surplus of 10.3% of GDP this year.According to Oxford Economics, the government ran a surplus of QR89bn (10.7% of GDP) in 2022, the strongest outcome since 2014. Expectations of sustained fiscal surpluses have triggered a positive credit outlook change from Fitch.Prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) in February, raising annual inflation to 4.4%, from 4.2% in January.The recreation and culture category, 11% of the CPI basket, drove the increase, with the sub-index rising 5.2% m-o-m, offsetting declines in other categories.“We expect annual inflation rates to be on a downtrend in the coming months and continue to forecast average inflation at 2.3% this year before stabilising around 2% in the medium term,” Oxford Economics noted.The Qatar Central Bank tracked the US Federal Reserve in hiking 25bps in March. More tightening is likely in the coming months, which will weigh on lending and non-oil growth, before rates are cut in 2024, the researcher noted.