From starving cattle in parched El Salvador to a “terrifying” threat to the world’s coral reefs, this year’s exceptionally strong El Nino is being felt across the globe. This year’s El Nino adds “a terrifying level of additional risk” for the world’s coral reefs, David Obura, chair of the UN’s expert nature panel, said. Corals are highly sensitive to heat, and climate change is making bleaching events more frequent and intense.
Obura led a major reassessment of coral health, published in ‘Nature’, that found reef-building species had deteriorated sharply since the last global census in 2008. Forests are also at risk. Global deforestation slowed last year, according to the independent Forest Declaration Assessment, but the gains are unlikely to last as conditions worsen in Central Africa and El Nino raises fire risks across the tropics.
Drought fueled by El Nino is wreaking havoc across Central America’s Dry Corridor, which stretches from Mexico to Panama. At a livestock market in Sensuntepeque, El Salvador, starving cows with protruding ribs were found. “Imagine how thin this little animal is! Why? Because of a lack of grass,” said Antonio Aguilar, a 54-year-old rancher, pointing to a cow reduced to skin and bones.
The El Nino, expected to peak by year’s end, is unfolding amid accelerating human-caused warming, which amplifies its effects. A warmer atmosphere dries out soil, deepening drought, and holds more moisture, making rains more extreme. UN development chief Alexander De Croo said that El Nino, combined with surging energy costs and higher interest rates, could push millions into poverty as the vulnerable are hit by crisis after crisis. He urged private investors to recognise both the “economic cost” of climate change and the “business case” for tackling it.
Sri Lanka’s central bank warned that El Nino could undermine the island’s fragile recovery from its worst economic crisis in decades, with torrential rains forecast through December and prolonged drought early next year. How this El Nino ranks depends on how it is measured, and agencies’ differing methods make direct comparisons difficult.
Britain’s Met Office calls it “unprecedented” and Japan’s weather agency calls it the strongest ever observed, but US forecasters have not declared a record -- yet. “By any measure, we are looking at a very strong El Nino,” climate scientist Emily Becker of the University of Miami said. She added that only once it is over will scientists know “where it fits in the context of history.”
Because climate change is warming oceans everywhere, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now measures how warm or cool the east-central Pacific is compared with the rest of the tropical ocean. That difference is what drives global weather impacts.
4.3C: How much hotter than normal August was in El Salvador, according to an AFP analysis of Copernicus satellite, ground-station and modelled data. Many less well-equipped nations do not publish detailed climate data of their own.
1982: The strongest El Nino year in NOAA’s dataset. The agency says the current event will likely surpass it.
44%: The share of reef-building coral species threatened with extinction in the latest global assessment. Since then, the fourth global bleaching event and this year’s El Nino have put corals in even greater jeopardy.
Under NOAA’s updated index, a 2.5C anomaly in a key Pacific region relative to the rest of the tropical ocean, sustained over three months, would make for the most intense El Nino on record. That might not sound like much, but the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the leading natural driver of year-to-year climate variability.