Alberta is holding a nonbinding referendum on Monday to ask residents if they want to remain part of Canada, marking the first time the oil-rich province has ever put the question of separation to the public. Polls have consistently shown most Albertans — about 70% — want to stay in Canada, with roughly a quarter of residents supporting an independent Alberta.
There are 10 questions, each with its own colour-coded ballot. The last ballot voters see is question 10, on whether Alberta should remain a Canadian province or start the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on separation. A simple majority in favour of separation could trigger that process. There are nine other nonbinding questions about immigration, access to provincial services - including education, social care and healthcare - and voter identification requirements.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said in May it was “time to have a vote, understand the will of Albertans on this subject, and move on,” when she announced the government would add a question on separation. Smith’s decision followed months of campaigning by a small but vocal group of separatists, who argue Alberta’s energy wealth is subsidizing poorer parts of the country and that bureaucracy in Ottawa has stifled the province’s economy. Some members of the group had backed Smith’s candidacy for premier. Smith says she voted for Alberta to remain in Canada during advance polling, according to a video she posted on social media on Wednesday.
The majority French-speaking province of Quebec has had two referendums, in 1980 and 1995. Quebecers voted to remain in Canada both times, but by the slimmest of margins in 1995. The separatist Parti Quebecois won a provincial election earlier this month and has pledged to hold a third referendum, but only after US President Donald Trump has left office and if the party holds a majority. The PQ was elected with a minority government on October 5, meaning it will rely on smaller parties to pass legislation.
Canada is a federation of 10 provinces and three territories. While Ottawa is responsible for matters of national interest, such as defence, trade and foreign policy, the provinces and territories hold significant power over medical care, education and land rights.
Polls are scheduled to close at 8pm on Monday. Elections Alberta says it will count ballots by hand and that the question on separation will be counted first. It will publish results on the Elections Alberta website as they are received, and unofficial results are expected within 48 hours after voting ends.
Smith has said she will respect the result and quickly begin the process to hold a legally binding referendum. But separation would not happen imminently. After the 1995 Quebec referendum, Canada’s Parliament passed the Clarity Act in 2000, which says talks about secession can only be triggered if there is a clear majority from the public, without specifying the necessary threshold. The act also states provinces and territories have no unilateral right to leave Canada and that a constitutional amendment negotiated by provincial, territorial and federal governments is required.
First Nations groups have objected to the idea of an independent Alberta, as their land treaties with Canada predate Alberta’s entry into Confederation. In May, an Alberta court judge ruled the province’s chief electoral officer was wrong to allow separatists to collect signatures requesting a referendum, because the process should have prompted a consultation with Indigenous peoples whose rights might be violated by separation. Alberta has appealed the decision.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was largely raised in Alberta, has previously said “the best place for Alberta is in Canada” and that the country cannot succeed if it’s divided. He released a video on Canadian Thanksgiving, October 12, saying national unity is critical as Canada fights threats from abroad, including a trade war with the US. Carney has campaigned for Alberta to remain in Canada.
Carney campaigned for national unity in Alberta on Thursday, before the oil-rich province votes on whether it wants a binding independence referendum. Polling indicates less than a quarter of Alberta’s roughly 5mn people want to break away from Canada, but Carney, who grew up in the western province, said “polls don’t vote.”
“We need people to show up and vote and stand up for Alberta, stand up for Canada,” he said during a television interview in Calgary. Speaking later with local business leaders, Carney said he couldn’t think of a “worse time to have a referendum,” citing a “more dangerously divided world” and friction with the United States.
Alberta’s right-wing Premier Smith says she is against independence but called Monday’s non-binding vote to settle a divisive issue. If a majority votes for independence, she has committed to launching a legally binding separation process. If a majority votes to stay, Smith says she won’t approve another referendum. Mitch Sylvestre, who heads the Alberta Prosperity Project, a prominent separatist organization, told AFP his side might “actually win this referendum.”
“I would be very surprised if we got less than 40%,” he said in an interview. Carney has put Alberta’s oil industry at the centre of his plans to solidify Canada’s economy and reduce dependence on the United States, warning close economic ties have been permanently fractured by President Donald Trump. Carney has backed a new pipeline and other projects to increase crude production, marking a clear break from his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, who was broadly reviled in Alberta over allegations he stifled oil industry growth in favour of environmental policies. Carney has repeatedly cited the proposed pipeline to argue for Alberta’s future prosperity within a united Canada.
Alberta separatists voice familiar conservative frustrations, from concerns about immigration levels to generalised fears about fraying individual liberty, but their grievances often hinge on oil industry management. Smith told the CBC that Alberta separatists stepped up mobilisation because Trudeau, who left office last year, was “actively trying to kill” the oil industry.
Oil’s dominance in separatist discussion makes Alberta “mostly an outlier,” said Syracuse University professor Ryan Griffiths, an expert on global secessionist groups. Secessionist movements regularly have “economic motivations,” but typically those are married to a linguistic or nationalist component, Griffiths said.
“There’s no magic line” dictating what defines a nation, he told AFP, but noted Alberta’s case for nationhood appears harder to make than that of other groups, like Catalans, Scots and French-speaking Canadians in Quebec. The alleged influence of Trump allies in Alberta has attracted intense scrutiny in Canada.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called Alberta a “natural partner” for the United States, and Alberta Prosperity Project leaders held several meetings at the State Department.
Earlier this month, Canada’s ‘Globe and Mail’ newspaper detailed contacts between Sylvestre, his team and Republican Party operatives.
Sylvestre told AFP that, for him, US interests “don’t play any role” in Alberta “until we win and become government,” at which point he would work to ensure free-flowing trade. “There’s no animosity towards America here,” he said. “I can’t see why we wouldn’t want to continue trading with the biggest economy in the world.”
Asked about alleged foreign interference, Carney said: “our expectation is — to be absolutely clear on foreign governments, United States included — we don’t get ourselves involved in their elections, they don’t get themselves involved in our elections.”