A flydubai flight to Tel Aviv this week narrowly avoided disaster after passengers overpowered a co-pilot who stabbed the captain and appeared to try to crash the plane, an incident that is clouding a rebound for regional airlines already grappling with the Iran war.
The circumstances and motives behind the incident remain unclear but it has once again highlighted concerns, where the seven-month Iran war has already spooked the sector and led to pilots facing increased risks from missiles, drones -- and stress.
Gulf airlines saw flight volumes collapse to near zero after the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran that sparked the conflict, though carriers have been making a steady comeback, with flights now back at around prewar levels. James Halstead, managing partner at Aviation Strategy, said it was tough to gauge the fallout of the latest incident while many questions remained unanswered, with the impact likely to be different depending on whether it was terrorism-related or linked to mental health issues as in the 2015 Germanwings crash.
“If it was a sort of incident like Germanwings had, then it probably has more of an impact on flydubai as a carrier itself rather than travel in the region,” said Halstead. “If it is terrorism, it is a different view, and that probably relates almost entirely to transport to Israel.”
Dubai state-owned airline flydubai has suspended flights to Israel while investigations are carried out. Its flight volumes were already lagging regional Gulf peers in returning to prewar levels, data from Flightradar24 show.
Gulf airlines have sought ways to revive their operations. Flight volumes have risen since the first month of the war though they dipped in recent weeks as a peace deal on Iran looked elusive. Jet fuel prices have soared, pressuring airlines in the Gulf and beyond.
Analysts said flydubai is expected to benefit from being a key regional carrier and important link between Israel and the Gulf.
Data from Israel’s Ben Gurion International airport shows it is among the top 10 passenger carriers and the main Gulf carrier. “It’s one of the key economic and tourism tools in the portfolio of Dubai,” said aviation analyst John Strickland, adding the region had been resilient to emerging complexities and threats after the Iran war began.
“We have seen quite strong, pretty buoyant demand in the region,” he said, adding that he expected flydubai to ride out the fallout from the incident given its position as a key link between Dubai and regional markets. “I would be surprised if it had an effect.”