The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran has done more than trigger another crisis in an already unstable region. It has exposed the profound transformation taking place across the Middle East — and, at the same time, some of the structural weaknesses of European foreign policy.
For the European Union, this should be a moment to rethink its relationship with the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain can no longer be viewed primarily through the lenses of energy, trade and security. The Gulf is becoming one of the arenas where a new international order is taking shape, and Europe needs its own strategy to engage with it.
Patrick Costello, a former European Union official and diplomat who served for 27 years across the European Parliament, European Commission and European External Action Service (including as head of the EEAS division for democracy and electoral observation and as a diplomatic adviser to EP President Josep Borrell), argues in his recent Afkar/Ideas article on Europe and the Iran war that European governments’ differing responses once again revealed the difficulties of developing a genuinely common foreign policy. His broader argument is particularly relevant: Europe needs greater strategic autonomy and the ability to act according to its own interests, rather than simply following those of the United States.
Interestingly, the Gulf states are pursuing their own version of strategic autonomy.
John Calabrese, assistant professor at American University in Washington, DC, and senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who directs the institute’s Middle East–Asia Project and focuses on Gulf–Asia interdependence, describes a Middle East increasingly characterised by strategic diversification. Gulf countries are not simply replacing the United States with China, India, Russia or Europe. Instead, they are broadening their partnerships to reduce dependency and increase their room for manoeuvre.
They want to maintain security ties with Washington, expand commercial and technological relations with China and Asia, and simultaneously develop stronger partnerships with Europe.
In other words, they do not necessarily want to choose between Washington, Beijing and Brussels. They want to work with all of them while protecting their own interests.
Giuseppe Dentice, a researcher and analyst specialising in Gulf monarchies’ foreign policy and soft power (currently with the Mediterranean Observatory/OSMED at the Institute of Political Studies “San Pio V” in Rome, and previously head of the MENA desk at CeSI and a research fellow at ISPI), adds another important dimension to this debate. The Gulf states have invested heavily in economic diversification and international projection through tourism, culture, sport, infrastructure and investment.
Regional instability therefore threatens much more than energy security. It can also affect their ambitions to become global centres for business, innovation and knowledge.
Technology is becoming equally important.
Sara Bazoobandi, a researcher at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University in Germany and visiting scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington who works on digital sovereignty, AI governance and cybersecurity in the Gulf, highlights in her analysis of technological sovereignty and Gulf geopolitics how countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasingly seek not only to purchase advanced technologies but also to develop their own capabilities, attract talent and position themselves in strategic sectors such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and digital infrastructure.
This leads to a crucial point: economic diversification also means diversifying dependencies. In the twenty-first century, technological dependency may become as strategically important as energy dependency.
Europe has much to offer in this changing environment: technology, universities, research, industrial expertise, renewable energy, healthcare, education, food, culture and advanced services. But the relationship needs to evolve.
Josep Borrell, former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission (2019–2024) and current president of CIDOB, the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, has been particularly critical of Europe’s inability to act strategically in the Middle East. His warning should be taken seriously. Strategic autonomy is not only about defence spending. It is also about diplomacy, energy, technology, trade, investment and the ability to build partnerships.
And the Gulf should be one of those partnerships.
I believe this requires a change of perspective. Europe should no longer approach the Gulf by asking only: “What can we sell there?”
The more important question is: “What can we build together?”
Building bridges between Europe and the Gulf means connecting companies and institutions, but also understanding different business cultures, creating personal relationships and developing long-term trust. Our approach is based on three simple principles: we get involved, we stay close, and we act as facilitators.
Because particularly in the Gulf, economic relationships begin with human relationships.
Europe is seeking greater strategic autonomy. The Gulf states are diversifying their alliances, economies and technological capabilities to achieve greater autonomy of their own.
These two ambitions do not have to push Europe and the Gulf apart. They can bring them closer together.
Europe brings knowledge, technology, companies, universities and institutional experience. The Gulf brings investment capacity, transformative ambition and an extraordinary geostrategic position.
Turning these complementarities into a genuine strategic partnership will require something more: trust.
In an increasingly fragmented world, strategic autonomy does not mean standing alone. It means having the capacity to choose our partners and build relationships based on shared interests, mutual respect and trust.
The European Union and the Gulf countries have an opportunity to make that relationship one of the defining strategic partnerships of the coming decades.
- The writer is Co-founder, LINQUI International Consulting. @linqui_internationalconsulting