Even by the standards of the second Trump presidency, the past week has seen a particularly cavalier treatment of longstanding US allies and partners. In a post on his Truth Social website on August 16, President Trump contrasted his “very good” relationship with Kim Jong-un of North Korea with disparaging remarks about South Korea.
A day later, Trump claimed he had demanded $10bn from South Korea for protection and suggested that Seoul’s failure to join the war with Iran would have consequences for bilateral relations. Trump separately threatened on the same day to “bomb the s**t out of” Oman if the Sultanate “gets in the way” of US attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and impose terms on Iran.
It may not be a coincidence that Trump brought up the Iran War in his comments on South Korea and Oman, two trusted and valuable US allies and partners. In Oman’s case, bilateral relations with the US go back nearly 200 years and the relationship is the second oldest the US has with a state in the Middle East and North Africa, after Morocco.
After all, this week marked the expiration of the 60-day deadline for a US-Iran agreement set out in the memorandum of understanding (MoU) that Trump himself signed in Versailles on June 17.
The MoU came in for criticism for being at the same time too expansive in its ambition and too vague in its detail on sequencing and implementation and quickly collapsed in mutual acrimony as each side blamed the other for the failure to reach a breakthrough. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below its prewar level and the uptick in transits in the aftermath of the June MoU has fallen back as Iran has resumed regular attacks on vessels in the waterway.
An increase in Houthi attacks from Yemen on vessels in the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Red Sea also threatens a key workaround that cushioned the impact of the restrictions in Hormuz shipping during the spring. Drawdowns in global oil inventories have eroded another of the buffers that mitigated the Hormuz blow in the opening months of the Iran War and subjected refined products to market pressures.
As Trump has consistently shown himself to be unable to secure favourable terms to reopen the Strait of Hormuz he now faces political headwinds as the Congressional midterms loom into view. It is thus little surprise that he seems to be lashing out at others in an apparent attempt to find scapegoats. Indeed, this is the second time Trump has threatened Oman after he warned on May 27 that the country would have to “behave or we’ll have to blow them up.” However, the use of undiplomatic language and the seeming disregard for the interests of allies and partners may leave the US isolated just at the time when it could use international support to reach a workable deal with Iran.
Looking specifically at the US position in the Middle East, the wars that began after October 7, 2023 have placed the region’s mediators in danger just when dialogue and diplomacy has been most needed. Both Qatar and Oman redoubled their efforts to prevent the war between Israel and Hamas from expanding and spreading into a regionwide conflict. Whereas Qatari officials took the lead in working alongside US and Egyptian counterparts to secure the release of hostages in Gaza and reach a ceasefire in the fighting, Omani diplomats focused on the US-Iran dimension. While the Qatari and Omani diplomatic initiatives largely functioned separately from each other, they came together when necessary, one example being during the six rounds of dialogue between US and Iranian officials that Oman facilitated in April and May last year.
And yet, both Qatar and Oman have found themselves in the crosshairs of hawkish elements of the policy establishment both in Israel and in the US. Israeli missiles struck a residential neighbourhood in Doha on September 9, 2025, killing six people, including a Qatari security officer as they targeted a delegation from Hamas which was meeting to discuss a US-backed ceasefire proposal.
The unprovoked attack on a building in a busy street in the middle of a weekday afternoon caused global outrage and demonstrated an utter disregard for international norms and the rules-based order which was already under severe strain as a result of Israeli operations in Gaza as well as Russian actions in Ukraine.
Sustained criticism of Qatar and Oman by sections of the media and political classes in the US and Israel have also taken place in recent years. The White House also seems to have taken exception to the Omani foreign minister’s high-profile visit to Washington, DC and appearance on US television on February 27 in a last-ditch attempt to avert war with Iran.
But now that Operation Epic Fury has resulted in Trump digging himself into a hole that he seems unable to climb out of, there is more need than ever for a pragmatic recognition that diplomacy rather than bluster and talks rather than threats are the best way forward.
The use of military force alone has rarely proven able to resolve differences between states. Any hopes that the White House or Israeli leaders might have had in the opening days of the war that they could bring down the Iranian regime have long since dissipated, but dialogue between the US and Iran is complicated by a chasm of distrust going back 47 years.
This makes the role of a trusted intermediary such as Oman or Qatar all the more vital to keep open channels of communication and make possible the exchange of messages.
It is this position that is now at risk from the latest verbal volleys and while Omani officials have shown admirable forbearance in taking them in their stride, the threat of bombing a Gulf partner is likely to increase still further the concerns felt in the region at US posturing.
- The writer is a leading scholar specialising in Gulf politics and international political economy, and a fellow at the Baker Institute and co-director of the Middle East Energy Roundtable.)
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