Asian currencies — some already struggling — have come under heavy selling, putting them among the largest losers globally. This has brought back memories of the Asian financial crisis and leaves policymakers with some unpleasant choices: Raising rates, spending reserves, or seeing their currencies sink further.
Like in the rest of the world, the effect of the US-Israeli war on Iran in Asia is the prospect of rising inflation and damaged growth. Asia buys about 80% of the oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, according to JP Morgan commodity analysts. India’s rupee, Indonesia’s rupiah and the Philippine peso have all been pulled to record lows against the dollar, along with major troughs for the yen and South Korean won.
The dollar, one of the few havens in March, made some of its sharpest gains in Asia — and to historic levels — rising more than 4% against the won, peso and Thai baht against a gain of around 1.5% on the euro. India’s rupee fell to a record low on Monday, before recovering, despite recent efforts by the central bank to stem its fall.
The rupee was among Asia’s worst forex performers in 2025, and its underperformance has continued well into this year, hitting new lows on a regular basis. But Chinese stocks are emerging as one of the best markets to ride out the Iran war, with their outperformance against global peers on track for the strongest since August 2025.
The Chinese yuan has slipped about 0.6% against the dollar since the war, but still outperformed most major Asian currencies even as a gauge of the greenback gained about 2.9%, according Bloomberg data. For free-falling Asian currencies, there is no simple solution — not least because options short of importing more oil don’t actually fix the squeeze, which is already spilling into prices for plastics and fertilisers.
Responding with higher rates risks slowing an economy when it most needs support. Subsidising fuel is expensive, and in emerging markets or countries with budget pressures, such moves could be received badly by bond investors. Direct currency intervention can also be costly and risky in fickle foreign exchange markets. There’s still one big factor that may lead to further currency losses — the potential for another upsurge in the price of oil.
An increase of $10 per barrel in crude may boost the US dollar by roughly 0.5% to 1%, according to Mitul Kotecha, a strategist at Barclays Bank in Singapore. “From an economic perspective, Asia gets hit a lot more because of the amount of oil that Asia imports,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week. “The dollar, I think, remains at least in this environment, quite well supported.”
Investors in Asia are struggling to adjust to the new normal, as they try to get to grips with the outsized swings precipitated by rising oil prices while the Iran war rages on. Volatility has climbed for virtually every asset class and the region has borne the brunt of the move. The opening gaps for Asian stocks and major bond markets last month show some of the most extreme moves of the last year, according to a percentile analysis compiled by Bloomberg.
Policymakers in the Asia-Pacific region are facing their toughest test since the Covid-19 pandemic, with few easy options, as they race to cushion their economies from an energy shock that is hitting harder and sooner than elsewhere. A US withdrawal from the Iran conflict would help ease tensions and improve prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery whose disruption has driven oil prices higher. Restoring flows from the Middle East would benefit major importers in Asia such as India and China and help alleviate concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth.