The yearly amount of planet-warming gases added to the atmosphere will decrease 12% by 2035 from 2019 levels, according to a new analysis published by the UN climate change secretariat (UNFCCC).

The revised figure represents progress from the expected 10% reduction announced on Oct 28, and takes into account pledges made since the cutoff for the previous analysis.

Nevertheless, the projected 12% cut is far short of the 60% emissions drop needed by 2035 to limit global warming at 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures — the threshold beyond which scientists say it would unleash far more severe impacts.

China’s carbon dioxide emissions were flat year-on-year in the third quarter, extending a now 18-month streak of flat or falling emissions, an analysis for climate publication Carbon Brief found.

The trend, which started in March 2024, means CO2 emissions could fall this year in the absence of any year-end spike, showed the analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. CO2 output rose 0.8% in 2024 after a post-pandemic rebound at the start of the year, a previous Carbon Brief analysis found. The government in September pledged to cap its carbon emissions by 2030 and, by 2035, reduce them by 7-10% from that as-yet unknown peak. That commitment was China’s first to reduce emissions, though the scale of the cuts fell short of broader expectations. The EU climate commissioner called it “disappointing”.

The US pullback from international climate agreements under President Donald Trump has created an opening for China to play a greater role in the matter, including at the UN COP30 climate summit in Brazil.

Flat emissions in the third quarter of 2025 came as rising chemical sector emissions offset declines or plateaus elsewhere.

Transport emissions fell 5% and power-sector emissions were flat in the third quarter, even as electricity demand grew 6.1%, the analysis found.

Electricity generation from wind, solar, nuclear and hydropower covered some 90% of that increase in demand. Gas-fired generation also cut into coal’s share.

But growth in the chemical industry kept overall emissions from falling. Plastic production grew 12% on the year in January-September, driven by surging domestic demand for plastic in food delivery and e-commerce. China has also ramped up domestic production of polyethylene, the most widely used type of plastic, in response to the trade war with the US, the analysis said.

The government has also encouraged refineries to shift to chemical production to make up for a drop in transport fuel demand amid a widespread shift to electric vehicles.

The COP30 climate summit opened on Monday with the UN climate chief urging countries to co-operate rather than battle over priorities, as efforts to limit global warming are threatened by a fracturing international consensus. Host country Brazil brokered a deal on the agenda for the two-week summit in the Amazon city of Belem, deflecting attempts by developing-country negotiating blocs to shoehorn contentious issues like climate finance and carbon taxes into the talks.

It was unclear whether countries would aim to negotiate a final agreement for the end of the event - a hard sell in a year of fractious global politics and US efforts to obstruct a transition away from fossil fuels. Some including Brazil have suggested that countries focus on smaller efforts that do not need consensus, such as deforestation, after years of COP summits making lofty promises only to leave many unfulfilled.

“In this arena of COP30, your job here is not to fight one another - your job here is to fight this climate crisis, together,” UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell told delegates from more than 190 countries attending. He said three decades of UN climate talks had helped to bend the curve in projected warming downward, “because of what was agreed in halls like this, with governments legislating, and markets responding. But I am not sugar-coating it. We have so much more work to do.”