The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lifted its 2025 growth forecast for the first time in more than a year but warned that the effects of tariffs and war will weigh on growth in 2026. The report, which covers economies in emerging Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, raised the 2025 growth outlook slightly to 3.1%, but noted a growing divergence as emerging European countries' growth lagged expansion elsewhere.
The 2025 estimate excludes the development bank's newest members — Iraq and six Sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana — but they are included elsewhere in the report for the first time.
Rising debt, resurgent inflation, prolonged wars and tariffs were menacing all EBRD economies, EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik warned.
While US imports from those countries had grown in the first half of the year, that was driven by the first quarter, before tariffs hit, she said.