Europe must unite or succumb to global disorder

Donald Trump is proving to be extraordinarily efficient at self-destruction. Just a few months into his presidency, he has already destroyed the transatlantic alliance between North America and democratic Europe. By launching trade wars against US allies and casting doubts on America’s security guarantee in Europe, he has also shattered trust in the United States for at least a generation. America’s role in the world is declining rapidly.

The Trump administration’s word is utterly worthless, as demonstrated by its betrayal of Ukraine, which continues to fight for freedom, democracy, and other quintessentially Western values. From now on, Europe will be alone in confronting its aggressive, imperial neighbour, Russia. If it does not want to suffer the same fate as Ukraine, it must answer some pressing questions, without delay.

America’s withdrawal from its role as the leading global power, which maintained order and guaranteed free trade, will lead to a different world order. The new order will revolve not around American power, but rather around the rivalry among major nuclear-armed states. As Russia’s behaviour already shows, those with the bomb will not shy away from blackmailing those without it. The rules-based order is already a thing of the past; from now on, the world order will function according to the whims of power, if it functions at all.

Europe holds the worst possible cards in this scenario, because it is not a “real” global power, in the sense that it is not a military power capable of defending itself. The current European political structure – comprising small and medium size nation-states – is incapable of facing down current threats.

What unites Europeans now is, above all, a shared fate, born of a desperate situation. Will they finally come together? Do they even aspire to become a real power? The answers to those questions will determine the future of the continent and its hundreds of millions of citizens.
Europeans’ choice now is between freedom and subjugation. But it is unclear whether Europeans still possess the courage to assert their own sovereignty and independence in matters of security.

The Trump administration is not only calling into question Europe’s military security; it is also casting doubt on the global trade that sustains the European economy. Europe can no longer afford to be technologically dependent on non-European great powers, especially in the dawning era of AI. The same applies to dependency on raw materials, as these can very quickly undercut other sectors and jeopardise national or regional security.

Europeans must identify all the areas where they were relying on America, and invest in self-sufficiency. To achieve “European sovereignty,” it is now or never.

After the twentieth century’s two devastating world wars, the European core – starting with France and Germany – managed to achieve a balance of interests and a certain solidarity. But Europe never did take the decisive step toward embodying a shared political will. National egoism always proved stronger than this imperative, not least because the security umbrella that America’s presence provided Europe alleviated the need for it. But now, the need is glaringly obvious. Europeans must take the final step that previous generations always found ways to avoid.

Charles de Gaulle, the saviour of France in its darkest hour – when the country faced military defeat at the hands of Nazi Germany – and its grand moderniser during the 1960s, opened his memoir with these memorable lines: “All my life, I have had a certain idea of France. This is inspired by sentiment as much as by reason.” In 1940, he had been an unknown general, broadcasting his solitary voice from exile in London to occupied France, urging continued resistance. His idea was indestructible, and ultimately victorious.

Contemporary Europe has much to learn from de Gaulle’s example. Like it or not, Europeans must either learn to live with uncontrollable security risks or become “Gaullists”. There is no third way.

Now, more than ever, we need a strong ideological core: a shared idea of Europe as a continent of freedom, human rights, solidarity, and the rule of law. Europe must remain the planet’s bastion of progress and basic decency. These values can be preserved only if we act as one people to become a true global power. — Project Syndicate