Shipping companies expressed caution about any quick return to the Red Sea route, after the Yemen-based Houthis signalled a pause in their attacks on commercial vessels.
Container giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S and oil tanker owner Hafnia Ltd both said they are still monitoring the situation. Maritime risk firm Ambrey said Houthi actions will continue while Israeli military forces operate within the Gaza Strip.
The targeting of vessels by the Iran-backed group has led to rerouting around South Africa that adds thousands of miles to journeys, increasing costs and carbon emissions. Any mass resumption of transits through the Red Sea — which never totally stopped — would be significant for both shippers and commodity markets.
On Thursday, Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi said the group would follow a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, suggesting a halt in its campaign. Ambrey estimates that phase two of the ceasefire — more than a month away — likely offers grounds for the Houthis to officially end attacks against Israeli, US and the UK’s merchant fleets.
“We might see some ships resume Red Sea transits in the coming weeks,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety & security officer at shipping trade group BIMCO. “But it will require fairly strong indications of ceasefire stability before shipping in general resumes transits to pre-conflict levels. The container lines will probably take a little longer.”
Maersk said it will return to the Red Sea and sailing through the notorious Bab el Mandeb strait when it’s safe, adding it was still too early to speculate about timing.
“This remains a deeply complex and volatile region where the idea of threat levels to vessels and their crews substantially subsiding in the near-term is unrealistic,” said Munro Anderson, head of operations at marine war risk and insurance specialist Vessel Protect.
“For there to be any tangible impact on marine risk rates we would need first to see an independent declaration by the Houthis that they were ceasing all operations against commercial shipping within the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” he added.
Houthi attacks on merchant ships have included the seizing of the Galaxy Leader and hitting an oil tanker with a missile and causing a large fire.
“We will only consider resuming operations through the Red Sea when deemed safe and secure,” by trusted authorities, Hafnia said in an emailed statement. In a statement on Friday, Marseilles, France-based CMA CGM Group said it’s “closely monitoring the ongoing developments in the region and hopes for a return to stability and safety for all,” adding that the priority for the world’s third-biggest container carrier is the safety of its crews, ships and cargo.
Much of the world’s container fleet has been sailing regularly around the Cape of Good Hope for the past year, adding 10 days or more to journeys to Europe from Asia — roundtrip voyages that can take two months.
It’s unlikely major carriers would abruptly change course and head through the Suez Canal within weeks of a Gaza ceasefire. Doing so without assurances that the peace will be lasting would cause congestion at ports and renewed routing havoc if the Houthi attacks resumed.
“Carriers will want to be assured there is an outlook for long-term safe passage before returning to the Red Sea to avoid further massive disruption if the situation deteriorates and they are forced to divert around Cape of Good Hope once again,” said Emily Stausboll, a senior shipping analyst at Xeneta, a digital freight platform based in Oslo.
Some industry observers have said it could take three to six months for the container shipping lines to fully return to normal once it’s safe to pass by the western coast of Yemen again.
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