US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen explained that its "unlikely" that market interest rates will return to levels that prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic caused a wave of inflation and higher yields.
On why White House projections released Monday showed markedly higher expectations for interest rates in coming years compared with projections a year ago, Yellen said the new numbers were in line with private sector forecasts.
"I think it reflects current market realities and the forecasts that were seeing in the private sector- that it seems unlikely that yields are going to go back to being as low as they were before the pandemic," Yellen told reporters.
Bloomberg News said that "the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes averaged 2.39% in the decade through 2019- low by historical standards. It spiked above 5% last October after the Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively to combat inflation, and now sits just below 4.2%."
Treasury Secretary stressed that "its important that the assumptions that we built into the budget are reasonable and consistent with thinking of the broad range of forecasters."
In Jan 2023, Yellen noted that it was likely that low rates would return, but last January she said "the jurys still out" on the question.
The new White House projections were part of US President Joe Bidens $7.3 trillion fiscal 2025 budget proposal. The administration assume now that the average rates on three-month and 10-year US Treasury bills and notes will be markedly higher over the next three years than anticipated a year ago.
Related Story