The global debate over the latest developments triggered by artificial intelligence (AI), especially by platforms like ChatGPT, is intensifying. While Goldman Sachs economists predicted that as many as 300mn full-time jobs around the world could be automated in some way due to the newest wave of AI, a nonprofit AI research group has urged the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to investigate ChatGPT creator OpenAI, and halt releases of GPT-4, the latest version of the software.
According to Goldman Sachs, 18% of work globally could be computerised, with the effects felt more deeply in advanced economies than emerging markets, partly because white-collar workers are seen to be more at risk than manual labourers. In the US and Europe, approximately two-thirds of current jobs “are exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and up to a quarter of all work could be done by AI completely. If generative AI or the technology behind ChatGPT “delivers on its promised capabilities, the labour market could face significant disruption.”
ChatGPT, which can answer prompts and write essays, has already prompted many businesses to rethink how people should work every day. The platform has quickly impressed early users with its ability to simplify coding, rapidly create a website from a simple sketch and pass exams with high marks, prompting more and more universities to launch plans to counter it. Though further use of such AI will likely lead to job losses, Goldman Sachs economists noted that technological innovation that initially displaces workers has historically also created employment growth over the long haul. While workplaces may shift, widespread adoption of AI could ultimately increase labour productivity — and boost global GDP by 7% annually over a 10-year period.
Although the impact of AI on the labour market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI. Most workers are employed in occupations that are partially exposed to AI automation and, following AI adoption, will likely apply at least some of their freed-up capacity toward productive activities that increase output. The combination of significant labour cost savings, new job creation, and a productivity boost for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labour productivity boom like those that followed the emergence of earlier general-purpose technologies like the electric motor and personal computer, Goldman Sachs predicted.
On the other hand, the Center for Artificial Intelligence and Digital Policy (CAIDP), a US body, has accused that GPT-4 is biased, deceptive, and a risk to privacy and public safety. “The outputs cannot be proven or replicated. No independent assessment was undertaken prior to deployment,” CAIDP said a complaint to the FTC last week. Calling for “independent oversight and evaluation of commercial AI products offered in the US,” CAIDP asked the FTC to “open an investigation into OpenAI, enjoin further commercial releases of GPT-4, and ensure the establishment of necessary guardrails to protect consumers, businesses, and the commercial marketplace.”
Noting that the FTC “has declared that the use of AI should be ‘transparent, explainable, fair, and empirically sound while fostering accountability,’” the nonprofit group argued that “OpenAI’s product GPT-4 satisfies none of these requirements.” Though OpenAI said it had external experts assess potential risks posed by GPT-4, CAIDP isn’t the first group to raise concerns about the AI field moving too fast. The Future of Life Institute the other day published an open letter urging AI labs to “immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4.” The letter’s long list of signers included many professors alongside some notable tech-industry names like Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak. It is definitely a high-tech clash, fuelled by AI.