More than 100mn people today are on the run from conflict and disaster. 340mn are projected to be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2023 — a figure that has grown fourfold in the past decade.
Led by Somalia, Ethiopia and Afghanistan, the 20 countries that form the ‘2023 Watchlist’, which has been prepared by the International Rescue Committee, is emblematic of the challenges facing fragile and crisis-affected communities worldwide.
Sadly, armed conflict, climate crisis and economic turmoil are pushing a growing minority of the world’s population into ever deeper crisis. These countries are home to just 13% of the global population and account for just 1.6% of global GDP, but they represent 81% of the forcibly displaced, 80% of the people facing crisis or catastrophic levels of food insecurity and 90% of global humanitarian need.
Climate change is rapidly accelerating humanitarian emergencies by exacerbating droughts, floods and other natural disasters. The countries on IRC’s Watchlist contribute just 1.9% of global CO2 emissions yet they face some of the worst impacts of climate-related disasters.
Economic turmoil rippling out from Russia — Ukraine war and the long-term impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic have disrupted supply chains, international trade and food and fuel prices, all of which drives food insecurity globally — and particularly in Watchlist countries.
These countries have experienced armed conflict for an average of 12 years: conflicts devastate the infrastructure, livelihoods and services upon which communities depend to withstand shocks. Climate crisis and record drought are major reasons why Somalia and Ethiopia are on this year’s Watchlist, but the years of conflict devastated the capacity of both countries to withstand shock, pushing them to the top of the list.
David Miliband, president, International Rescue Committee, said: “As well as being a warning, Watchlist 2023 is intended as a roadmap for how we can choose to strengthen the guardrails meant to limit the impact of these crises.”
“But the Watchlist isn’t just a story of individual tragedies,” he said in an article released by the World Economic Forum.
The 20 countries collectively can help us understand why humanitarian crisis has been allowed to spiral out of control in deadly ways.
The year 2022 provided isolated examples of how crisis can be mitigated with guardrails in place.
The UN-brokered six-month truce in Yemen led to an 86% drop in fatalities — a guardrail that is now at risk with the expiry of the truce.
Investments in coastal shelter systems in Bangladesh saved thousands of lives when Cyclone Sitrang made landfall this October.
The Ukrainian grain agreement allowed more than 12mn tonnes of food to be exported through the Black Sea, a lifeline for low- and lower-middle-income countries suffering the worst effects of the global food crisis.
None of these examples ended crises, but they prevented catastrophe.
The scale and nature of conflict, climate change and economic turmoil in too many places, left untended, is overloading these guardrails and creating runaway humanitarian crises. Undoubtedly, needs will continue to grow in a world with hamstrung guardrails or without them entirely!