Brazilian presidential candidate Aecio Neves speaking during a press conference accompanied by his daugther Gabriela Falcao Neves in Rio de Janeiro.
Reuters/Brasilia
Opposition candidate Aecio Neves has a shrinking lead over President Dilma Rousseff in Brazil’s presidential race, an outlying poll showed yesterday, at odds with major pollsters that report a growing lead for the incumbent.
The new poll conducted by Sensus showed Neves with 54.6% of valid voter support and 45.4% for Rousseff. Sensus had shown an advantage of nearly 13 percentage points for Neves last week and almost 18 percentage points the week before.
Two more closely watched polls on Thursday showed Rousseff with a lead of 6 to 8 percentage points.
A mild economic rebound and a bruising campaign have boosted the president’s campaign in recent weeks.
The credibility of opinion polling in Brazil has taken a beating in this year’s election. A flood of smaller surveys forecast results as much as 20 percentage points apart in the same week, and even big-time pollsters failed to capture the extent of Neves’ support in the first round of voting on October 5.
Sensus polled 2,000 voters in 136 cities from October 21 to October 24 for the survey published yesterday, which had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points up or down
Rousseff supporters, however, claim she has gained ground by reminding voters of the rising wages and expanding social programmes many have enjoyed over the past 12 years of Workers’ Party rule, benefits she said would be at risk because Neves would govern for the elite.
“We are seeing a turnaround. It’s visible on the streets,” Rousseff, 66, said at a news conference at a Rio de Janeiro hotel where she was preparing for last night’s final television debate.
An undaunted Neves dismissed the polls showing a lead for Rousseff as unreliable, saying they had failed to detect his surge in the October 5 first round vote in which he unexpectedly placed second ahead of popular environmentalist Marina Silva.
Neves, 54, told reporters in Rio that Rousseff had run a “sordid” campaign that was a full of lies about him.
Neves, the market favourite, insists he would preserve social programmes while curbing other government spending, taming inflation and ending what he calls heavy-handed industrial policies in order to restore investor confidence in a economy that slipped into recession in the first half of the year.
But his promise of economic recovery appears to have lost weight among many Brazilian voters who are increasingly optimistic about Brazil’s economy, according to a Datafolha poll released on Wednesday.
Rousseff has gained momentum in the last two weeks mainly among Brazil’s lower-middle class, which has gained access to modern consumer goods and education under the Worker’s Party and does not appear to have been swayed by Neves.
Meanwhile, football star Neymar has declared support for Neves, hours after manager Dunga warned players against making political and religious statements.
The Barcelona striker said he would support Neves in tomorrow’s run-off ballot against incumbent Rousseff.
“I really identify with his proposals for Brazil,” Neymar said in a short statement posted on YouTube.
The message came hours after Dunga named Neymar captain of the side and banned earrings, flip-flops and caps while the players are on international duty and restricted use of mobile phones and iPads during meals and team talks.
