Food prices around the world have soared to record levels this year as the Russia-Ukraine war slashes key exports of wheat and fertiliser from those countries, at the same time as droughts, floods and heat fuelled by climate change claim more harvests.
Wheat prices hit a 14-year peak in March, and maize prices reached the highest ever recorded, the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES) said in a report released yesterday.
That has made basic staples more expensive — or harder to find — for families in many countries, especially the poorest.
Climate change, widespread poverty and conflicts are now combining to create “endemic and widespread” risks to global food security — which means higher food prices may be the new normal, unless action is taken to curb the threats, IPES noted.
It suggests not only cutting emissions swiftly to limit climate change but also tackling commodity speculation, giving debt relief, cutting reliance on chemical fertilisers, reshaping trade and shoring up national grain reserves.
If these things are neglected, the world will find itself “sleepwalking into the catastrophic and systematic food crises of the future”, the IPES experts noted.
Why are food prices so high right now?
Russia and Ukraine supply about 30% of global wheat exports, but those have fallen as a result of the conflict.
National stocks of wheat — mostly eaten in the countries where it is grown — remain relatively high, said Brigitte Hugh of the US Center for Climate and Security.
But the drop in exports from Russia and Ukraine has driven up competition for the remaining wheat on the global market, leading to higher costs that are particularly painful for poorer, debt-ridden countries that rely heavily on imports.
Almost 40% of Africa’s wheat imports come from Ukraine and Russia, while rising global wheat prices have sent bread prices in Lebanon 70% higher, IPES said.
But the disruption to wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine is not the whole reason for the price hikes, which have spilled over into maize, rice and soy markets as buyers seek alternative grains.
Spurred by the conflict, financial speculators have leapt into trading in grain futures, for instance, “artificially” inflating prices as they seek to profit from market uncertainty, G7 agriculture ministers have complained.
Since the last food price crises of 2007-2008 and 2011-2012, “governments have failed to curb excessive speculation and ensure transparency of food stocks and commodity markets,” said Jennifer Clapp, a professor specialised in food security at Canada’s University of Waterloo.
The problem “must be urgently addressed” if the world wants to ensure more stable food prices in coming years as climate change, conflict and other threats drive up risks, she added.
Climate change impacts — from droughts and heatwaves to flooding and new pests — also are making it harder for farmers in many parts of the world to get a reliable crop, a problem set to worsen as planet-heating emissions continue to rise.
As food prices soar on world markets, humanitarian agencies are struggling to buy grain for hungry people in conflict-hit places like Afghanistan, Yemen, South Sudan and Syria.
Costly food threatens to stoke political unrest and eat up government funds, it could derail efforts to curb climate change and build resilience to its impacts, driving a vicious cycle of ever more poverty, unrest and hunger.
Experts said the Russia-Ukraine war may trigger a landmark shift in food prices. The end of cheap and highly available food, for some people, is going to be very much the reality. – Thomson Reuters Foundation