Turkey’s current account is expected to record a $39bn deficit in 2020, a Reuters poll showed yesterday, mainly due to a surge in the trade deficit and a pandemic-related downturn in tourism.
The median poll response of 12 economists was for a deficit of $39bn in 2020, compared to $37.7bn in last month’s survey.
Forecasts ranged between $37.8bn and $39.7bn.
Ankara expected a deficit of $24.4bn, or 3.5% of GDP, in 2020, according to government estimates.
Without the downturn in tourism due to the coronavirus pandemic and surging demand for gold, Turkey would have posted a surplus of $12.4bn.
The current account deficit was mainly due to the trade deficit, which widened more than 69% in 2020 and stood at around $50bn, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed.
In the poll of 12 economists, forecasts for the December current account ranged between deficits of $2.8bn and $4.5bn.
The deficit in December is mainly due to a trade deficit, while the downturn in the services sector due to seasonal factors and the pandemic became more apparent, said Daglar Ozkan, economist at Is Yatirim.
The trade deficit, a main component of the current account, fell 3% year-on-year in December but stood above $4.5bn. Ozkan said tourism was expected to recover significantly in 2021 as vaccination programmes progressed.
“Exports are following a positive trend due to a global economic recovery and in addition to these, with a normalisation in gold imports, the current account deficit could be lowered significantly in 2021 to around $20bn,” he said.
Turkey’s 12-month current account ended 2019 in surplus for the first time since 2001, though the monthly reading dipped back towards the end of the year as the economy recovered from a recession brought on by a 2018 currency crisis.
The central bank is scheduled to announce the December current account data on February 12.