President Sergio Mattarella gave political novice Giuseppe Conte a mandate on Wednesday to head a coalition comprising the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and far-right League, ending 80 days of stalemate following an inconclusive vote on March 4.
The League and 5-Star have drawn up a 57-page government programme, presenting it as an ambitious project designed to fill a full, five-year legislature.
Few believe it will last anywhere near that long.
“Virtually no Italian government has survived five years, so that is not even an issue,” said Franco Pavoncello, a professor of political science and president of John Cabot University.
“The question is whether they can last one or two years, and whether they can make a dent in the political, institutional and economic life of the country.”
Even that might prove a stretch given the challenges ahead, including the fact that 5-Star and the League are political rivals with diverging priorities, and have only a wafer-thin majority in the upper house, leaving them vulnerable to ambush.
“This government has been born to lead an election campaign...the next elections are much nearer than you might think,” outgoing industry minister Carlo Calenda said.
Both parties made extravagant promises during their campaigns and have included elements of these in their pact, which is infused with euroscepticism and calls for an overhaul of EU treaties on monetary union and immigration.
Some of their programme should be relatively easy to implement and give them swift domestic wins, such as an undertaking to strengthen laws on legitimate self-defence and to revise 2011 legislation that sharply raised retirement ages.
But many other issues, including some they will have to tackle from day one, are more problematic and could immediately strain their embryonic relationship.
The fate of the southern Ilva steel plant, dogged by corruption scandals and environmental concerns, will be one of the most pressing issues awaiting the new industry ministry, who is likely to be 5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio.
The League says Ilva is vital to Italy’s economy and must be protected.
Likewise, while 5-Star wants to pull the plug on the Turin-Lyon high-speed rail link (TAV), the League fervently defends the multi-billion euro Franco-Italian project.
The next challenge will be deciding the priorities for the 2019 budget.
The League and 5-Star both inserted their costly flagship policies in their joint pact — slashing taxes and introducing a universal income for the poor respectively.
Critics argue that heavily indebted Italy can ill-afford either, and certainly not both at once, meaning that their introduction will have to be staggered.
“They are going to have to find resources to cover the imbalances and will have to decide which policies get precedence. That is a recipe for trouble,” said Andrea Goldstein, head of the Nomisma think-tank.
The incompatibility of tax cuts and welfare hikes exemplifies the tension at the heart of the coalition: While the League will be looking to serve its core electorate in the wealthy north, 5-Star will be focused instead on its heartland, the deprived south.
